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NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Tuesday, November 29th
Tuesday: Tuesday’s NHL schedule features nine games, but there is one bet that I believe is better than all the rest.
Tuesday’s Bets: Pittsburgh Penguins -115
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Units Won: -3.49 units
ROI: -7.4 percent
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Bet: Pittsburgh Penguins -115
Risk: 1.15 units
To Win: 1 unit
Carolina is the stronger team at even strength. They sit atop the league in categories such as shot attempt percentage and expected goals. However, the Penguins grade out as the superior team in all situations, and the Hurricanes scoring woes are well documented. Only two teams have scored fewer goals than Carolina has in the month of November, and although their defense is good, it might not be enough to get them past the Penguins. Pittsburgh ranks as a top-10 team on offense and only a couple of spots separate the two teams in terms of goals against.
Pyotr Kochetkov is Carolina’s best option in goal right now, as veteran Antti Raanta has not been good, but it’s unclear who will start against the Penguins on Tuesday. I am going to assume it will be Kochetkov to mitigate some of the uncertainty, but Pittsburgh has not yet named a starting goaltender, either. Casey DeSmith has been Pittsburgh’s best goaltender so far this season, but Tristan Jarry has saved the team approximately five goals above expected over his last three starts and head coach Mike Sullivan might choose to ride the hot hand.
Carolina has scored two or fewer goals in seven out of their last 11 games, while the Penguins have scored three or more in eight out of their last 12, and there’s value betting on the home team, at least according to my NHL betting model. The Penguins should win the game about 55.8 percent of the time, which means their odds should be closer to -126. Therefore, I am betting on the Penguins to beat the Hurricanes at -115 (or better) to win one unit.
Note: Hurricanes’ goaltender Frederik Andersen is on injured reserve, as are forwards Max Pacioretty and Teuvo Teravainen.
Andrei Vasilevskiy will start in Boston on Tuesday after backup Brian Elliott was able to hang on and get the win in Buffalo on Monday. The Bruins have been off for three days, but there are no surprises here. The market is aware of the disadvantage. What the market can’t figure out, though, is Boston’s starting goaltender. Starter Linus Ullmark is cleared to play after suffering a minor injury, but Bruins’ head coach Jim Montgomery left the door open for backup Jeremy Swayman to start.
If Ullmark starts, the Bruins should be priced around -165, but their odds should be closer to -140 if Swayman starts. There’s no value betting on Boston at this point, and even if Ullmark does end up riding the pine, Tampa Bay’s odds won’t be generous enough to justify betting on them. Either way, bettors should expect a strong start from the Bruins, as did not start on time when they played the Lightning in Tampa Bay last week.
Winnipeg picked up a big win in Chicago on Sunday, and afterwards, head coach Rick Bowness pumped his team’s tires and reminded them that they’d be in a battle for first place on Tuesday. That’s not technically true, as the Dallas Stars have a three-point lead on them in the Central Division, but the Jets could gain as much as a four-point lead over the Avalanche with a regulation win, and they would have the most wins in the division.
Winnipeg has been playing well, and not just on the surface. The Jets rank seventh in expected goals in the month of November, and they have the seventh-best goal share during that time. Colorado is still a better team, but in their current form, the Jets are dangerous, and the Avalanche aren’t impervious to having a bad game. Of course, they haven’t had many bad games lately, though, winning eight of their last 10. I had hoped that the Jets’ odds would be bigger, as my NHL betting model prices them at around +110 and +115 doesn’t meet my threshold.
Florida fell to the Oilers in overtime on Monday, and they will play their second game in as many nights on Tuesday in Calgary. It will be their second game without the services of their best player, Aleksandar Barkov, and that’s not going to help their chances against the Flames. Neither is Sergei Bobrovsky, who is expected to start in goal after Spencer Knight took the loss on Monday. Bobrovsky has an .889 save percentage and has cost the team approximately five goals above expected so far this season.
Flames’ starter Jacob Markstrom hasn’t been good, though, his .888 save percentage and -2.2 goals above expected are a far cry from the elite numbers he put up in 2021-22. The Flames won the last time these two teams met (10 days ago) but they blew the lead three times (including a 2-0 lead) and needed a shootout to win. In other words, there’s a chance that this game could get out of hand. After all, the Panthers are a better offensive team than the Flames.
Sure, taking Barkov out of the mix levels the playing field, but the point is: Despite Florida’s flaws, they’re always in the mix to win games. My model estimates that Calgary will win the game almost 61 percent of the time, which means their odds should be around -155. The market moved quickly on Calgary when the line opened, though, so I won’t be betting on them at the current odds. Besides, it’s more fun to bet against Florida at plus money odds.
Vancouver is playing their third game in four days, but they’ve scored at least four goals in each of their last six games, and they are 5-1 during that stretch. Of course, this comes after the team only won four of its first 16 games, and they’re still a poor defensive team. The Capitals grade out as a better team in categories like shot attempt percentage and expected goals, but the Vancouver’s shooting percentage (10.7 percent) is almost double that of Washington’s (6.2 percent) in the month of November.
The Capitals are typically a top-10 team (or better) when it comes to shooting percentage, but injuries have held them back. Bettors should expect the team to score more as they get healthy but based on the lines they ran at Monday’s practice; it doesn’t look like they’re getting any reinforcements for this game. My model might be underrating the Canucks, or overrating the Capitals, but regardless, it sees the Canucks as a small favorite (-105) on Tuesday. I hope I don’t end up with a bet on this game, given my lack of confidence in my assessment of these two teams lately.
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