Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.
All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page
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Market Report Recap for Monday, Nov. 8th
With a little luck, the Sharks and Wild combined to go over the total thanks to a high-scoring third period. Player prop bets went 2-1.
Game Lines:
38-37, -1.15 units, -1.15 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -109
Player Props:
97-87, -1.25 units, -0.57 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -106
Market Report for Tuesday, Nov. 9th
Friday is probably going to be a quiet day, as my model suggests that game lines are tight. Of course, there’s a chance that something will shake out, but to get things started, I just have one small bet that I like. I apologize for the late start today, but I guess the lack of sleep over the last two months caught up to me and I slept through my alarm for the first time all season. Thankfully, I don't really believe I missed anything that's going to keep me up tonight. Thanks for your patience and good luck.
Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:
Pittsburgh Penguins (%plussign% 125) at Washington Capitals (-145)
Washington recalled goaltender Zach Fucale from the American Hockey League for precautionary reasons, as the team’s goaltending coach is in COVID protocol. Washington also has three players on the COVID list, and there’s a chance that they could be without Carl Hagelin due to a non-COVID related illness. There’s also a chance that they could be without Evgeny Kuznetsov, but coach stated that he’s optimistic that Kuznetsov will be ready to play on Friday. The Penguins, meanwhile, are down to important players, as both Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel are currently sidelined.
I’m going to assume that Tristan Jarry will start in goal for the Penguins, and Ilya Samsonov is expected to start in goal for the Capitals. However, COVID could throw off the Capitals’ game plan, and there’s a lot of uncertainty as far as what their lineup will look like. Then there’s Nicklas Backstrom, who was cleared for contact about a week ago, and could return at any time. I don’t think he’ll play on Friday, but I wouldn’t rule it out either.
According to my model, if Kuznetsov is in the lineup, and the Capitals don’t lose any more players because of the virus, they should be priced around -135.
Update: Tristan Jarry and Ilya Samsonov will start in goal. Kuznetsov is expected to play.
New York Rangers (-180) at Buffalo Sabres (%plussign% 160)
Alex Georgiev will likely start in goal for the Rangers, while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is confirmed to start in the Sabres’ crease. The Sabres have had two days off while the Rangers are playing their third game in four days without starting goaltender Igor Shesterkin.
Buffalo is a bad hockey team, but the Rangers’ price is too high. I would not recommend laying -180 on the road team in this spot. According to my model, the Rangers should be priced around -170, because even on his best days, Georgiev is an average goaltender.
Note: Igor Shesterkin took part in practice, but it doesn’t seem like the Rangers will be activating him in time for Friday’s game against the Sabres.
Update: Georgiev will start for the Rangers.
Nashville Predators (-105) at New Jersey Devils (-115)
Jonathan Bernier was placed on injured reserve on Friday morning, and MacKenzie Blackwood is scheduled to start in goal for the Devils when they take on the Predators. Nashville picked up a 4-3 win over the Islanders at UBS Arena on Thursday with David Rittich in goal. Juuse Saros status for Friday is still up in the air as I haven’t been able to find out if he is even travelling with the team on this road trip. Nashville defender Mattias Ekholm is also dealing with a non-COVID related illness. Pricing this game is tough, unless you’re willing to speculate on the status of Nashville’s starting goaltender, which is something that I’m not going to do because I’m not comfortable with the uncertainty in this situation.
Update: Juuse Saros will start for the Predators and Matt Duchene is out. I'm laying -125 on under six goals in New Jersey, but it's only a small wager.
Pick:
Under 6 -125 (half size)
Detroit Red Wings (%plussign% 280) at Colorado Avalanche (-340)
If you read Thursday’s report, you know I passed on the Red Wings even though my model suggested that they were a good play. I wasn’t buying it, as the more I see out of this team, the less I buy into their underlying numbers, and their recent play has only made matters worse as they have been getting badly outplayed. Here’s the thing, though, when I decide that I’m going to sit back and see how a team does for a little while, like I am with the Red Wings, I don’t rush into betting against them, even when it appears to be a layup. According to my model, this game should be priced north of -400, and there’s some value in laying -150 on the Avalanche to cover the -1.5 puck line. I’m reducing the size of my bet a bit, though, because I’ve made some arbitrary adjustments to the Red Wings team rating.
Pick:
Colorado Avalanche Puck Line -1.5, -150 (half size)
Note: Nazem Kadri is not expected to be in the Avalanche lineup. Tyler Bertuzzi is in COVID protocol and is not expected to play for Detroit. Darcy Kuemper and Thomas Greiss are expected to be the starting goaltenders.
Update: Darcy Kuemper will start in goal. Nazem Kadri and Bowen Byram will not play.
Florida Panthers (-300) at Arizona Coyotes (%plussign% 240)
Nick Schmaltz is expected to return to the Coyotes lineup on Friday, which means the team will have more NHL-calibre players than they did the day before, however, this is barely an NHL-calibre team. The Panthers should make easy work of the Coyotes, as both Aleksander Barkov and Anthony Duclair are expected to be in the lineup. Sergei Bobrovsky and Scott Wedgewood will be the starting goaltenders. According to my model, the Panthers should be priced as -315 favorites, and maybe that’s too low, but I’m not going to fudge my numbers in order to justify taking a position.
Philadelphia Flyers (%plussign% 195) at Vegas Golden Knights (-230)
The Flyers have lost 10 games in a row and on Friday, that number is probably going to reach 11, as the Golden Knights should win this game about 69 percent of the time, according to my model. However, that translates to a fair line of around -225, and I think there’s a chance that backup Laurent Brossoit might start in goal for the Golden Knights. The Flyers play again on Saturday in Arizona, and they haven’t confirmed their starting goaltender yet. It doesn’t look like I’ll be ending up with any kind of position on either side.
Update: Chandler Stephenson will miss the game due to personal reasons. Laurent Brossoit is expected to get the start but it has not been confirmed by the team yet. According to my model, the Golden Knights should now be priced somewhere between -210 and -220 depending on their lineup.
Player Props:
Max Pacioretty Over 3.5 Shots -130 (DraftKings)
Pacioretty has registered at least four shots in all but one game (he registered three) and since returning from injury, he's been averaging over five shots a game. The Flyers allow more shots against on a per 60 minute basis than any other team, and allow more unblocked-shot attempts than every team not named the Ottawa Senators. In fact, they're sandwiched tightly between the Senators and the Arizona Coyotes in that category. According to the Propagator, Pacioretty should register at least four shots against the Flyers almost 64 percent of the time, which means the over should be priced closer to -175.
Winnipeg Jets (%plussign% 115) at Vancouver Canucks (-135)
Eric Comrie will start in goal for the Winnipeg Jets, who are coming off a 3-0 shutout-win over the Seattle Kraken on Thursday. The Canucks, on the other hand, have won two games in a row since Bruce Boudreau took over as head coach, and they look like a different team. With that said, Vancouver still hasn’t impressed me yet, and it’s going to take a lot more than a couple of wins to do so. According to my model, a fair price for this game is close to -130, but that’s assuming Thatcher Demko is in goal. And while I think there is a very good chance that Demko does start on Friday, the Canucks do have a date with the Hurricanes coming up next and Boudreau might opt to go with Jaroslav Halak in order to get Demko some rest. I would bet on Vancouver if I thought the price was egregious, but clearly, I believe they’re priced a little too high. Therefore, the plan is to hang out and see if Boudreau surprises everybody by starting the backup goaltender. I guess you could say there’s a 0 percent chance that I’ll be laying the favorite, and maybe a 10-15 percent chance that I’ll end up jumping on the dog because of an unexpected goaltending announcement.
Bet Summary
Early Bets:
Colorado Avalanche Puck Line -1.5, -150 (half size)
Late Adds:
Max Pacioretty Over 3.5 Shots -130 (DraftKings)
Nashville Predators – New Jersey Devils Under 6, -125 (half size)
