NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 10/25

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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

 

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Market Report Recap for Sunday, Oct. 24th

It paid to be an early riser on Sunday, as those who read the report early likely found themselves with a great number on the Red Wings. However, the line moved quickly after publishing, and I think it's fair to grade the bet at %plussign% 135 (the closing price) instead of %plussing% 145.

Record

Game Lines: 7-10, -4.05 units, -19.9 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -108

Player Props: 32-24, %plussign% 3.29 units, 4.7 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -116

Overall: 39-34, -0.76 units, -0.84 percent ROI

Market Report for Monday, Oct. 25th

Typically, Mondays are not busier than Tuesdays, but this week is different. There are seven games on Monday, and only six on Tuesday.

More player prop bets will be added after morning skates.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Dallas Stars (-130) at Columbus Blue Jackets (%plussign% 110)

John Klingberg was paired with Ryan Suter during Sunday’s practice, and it looks like he’ll be good to go for Monday’s game in against the Blue Jackets. However, forward Jason Robertson will not travel with the team. Dallas should win this game, but there’s no value bet to be made here unless the game line shifts significantly. The only way I see myself ending up with action on this game is if the line moves north of %plussign% 120 and both Brady Holtby and Elvis Merzlikins are in goal for their respective teams.

Note: Defender Adam Boqvist (CBJ) will not play on Monday.

Player Prop:

Tyler Seguin Under 0.5 Points -120 (BetMGM)

Seguin has looked better in his last two games than he did in his first three, but it's going to take more than that to scare me away from betting this prop. The Propagator estimates that this bet will win approximately 60 percent of the time.

Calgary Flames (%plussign% 110) at New York Rangers (-130)

The Rangers and Flames are very similar, which is why the price is what it is. Neither team has confirmed their starting goaltender, but it would seem likely that we’ll see Jacob Markstrom and Igor Shesterkin tending each goal. Of course, Gerard Gallant likely won’t reveal the Rangers’ starter until closer to game time. Calgary plays in New Jersey on Tuesday, so this is the first half of a back-to-back, but the Rangers are a stronger opponent and Markstrom had the last game off, presumably for the purpose of keeping him fresh for the Rangers. Ryan Strome seems like a good bet to play, but he’s still considered questionable. It looks like Kaapo Kakko could be out of the lineup for the Rangers, though. The Flames are on the fringes of being a value bet, but unless Alexander Georgiev makes a surprise start, I don’t think I’m going to get involved if the price stays the same.

Player Prop:

Artemi Panarin Under 2.5 Shots -115 (DraftKings)

Panarin is a great player, but he doesn't shoot the puck as much as this prop implies. In six games this season, Panarin has only registered three shots or more one time, and the Propagator estimates that he's going to go under that total about 63 percent of the time on Monday against the Flames.

Arizona Coyotes (%plussign% 330) at Florida Panthers (-400)

By my estimation, the Panthers should win this game about 77 percent of the time, which is about what you will get if you take the current game odds, convert to implied probability and remove the juice. Spencer Knight is the starter for the Panthers.

Player Prop:

Jakob Chychrun Under 0.5 Points -165 (BetMGM)Nick Schmaltz Under 0.5 Points -140 (DraftKings)

The 23-year-old hasn’t registered a point yet this season. No, that doesn’t mean he’s due, it means that this prop isn't priced correctly. In fact, it hasn't been priced correctly all season as indicated by the 3-0 record I have betting this prop.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-105) at Carolina Hurricanes (-105)

So far, the Hurricanes have put any worries about the direction of their club to rest. Freddie Andersen has been great, Tony DeAngelo has looked solid and Jesperi Kotkaniemi looks like a totally different player. The Maple Leafs, on the other hand, are facing harsh criticism for the way they’ve played through the first six games. The home team should be slightly favored here, but there’s no value betting on either side unless one is being offered at an underdog price of around %plussign% 110 or better. Pundits will say this is a must-win game for the Maple Leafs but leave out the fact that the Hurricanes aren’t going to roll over and help them get their season back on track. Every team in the league wants to keep the Leafs down, if they can. Don’t buy into those types of narratives.

Washington Capitals (-165) at Ottawa Senators (%plussign% 145)

Ottawa has not yet revealed their starting goaltender for Monday’s game against Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals, but it’s not going to be Matt Murray, as the 27-year-old was recently placed on injured reserve. It’s going to be Anton Forsberg in goal for the Senators, who is a better option than Murray. By my estimation, the Capitals will win this game almost 59 percent of the time, which means that I’m closer to taking the dog. The price is going to need to climb, though, as %plussign% 145 isn’t quite big enough.

Player Prop:

Connor Brown Under 0.5 Points -115 (BetMGM)

Who is Connor Brown, and why is the under priced at -115? I'm just kidding, I know who he is, and he's a good player. However, is he a player that get's a point almost half the time? No! The Propagator estimates that he will register a point about 40 percent of the time, which means the under should be priced at -150, not -115.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-200) at Buffalo Sabres (%plussign% 175)

The Lightning play in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, so there’s a good chance that we see Brian Elliott get the start in Buffalo on Monday. If that’s the case, there could be some value on the Sabres, but only if the game line has not moved. Even then, the edge would be razor thin, and it would not constitute as much of a value play. The Sabres look hungry, but nothing they’ve done has impressed me yet. This team has started hot before, only to lose steam shortly thereafter. It will happen again.

Player Props:

Victor Olofsson Under 2.5 Shots -130 (DraftKings)

Olofsson used to play with really good players that could feed him the puck on the regular. Now he doesn't. The Propagator prices the under at -150.

Los Angeles Kings (%plussign% 155) at St. Louis Blues (-175)

St. Louis destroyed the Kings on Saturday by a score of 7-2, but it was the second half of a back-to-back for Los Angeles, and they didn’t have their best defender, Drew Doughty. It doesn’t look like the injury is serious, but my guess (and that’s all it is) is that the earliest possible return for Doughty would be the Kings’ next home game on Thursday against the Jets. Cal Petersen took the loss on Saturday, but he’s still a far better option in goal than Jonathan Quick. However, I don’t know what route head coach Todd McLellan will choose to go. The Blues will get Pavel Buchnevich back on Monday, but there still isn’t much information on Brandon Saad, who was in COVID protocol on Saturday. My projected line for this game is around -155 in favor of the Blues, and that number goes up quite a bit if Quick gets the start. But either way, it doesn’t look like I’ll be making a play on this game.

Note: Ville Husso is expected to start for the St. Louis Blues. He's a big downgrade from Jordan Binnington. Unfortunately, without some kind of confirmation out of Los Angeles, I don't feel comfortable taking a side here yet.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Jakob Chychrun Under 0.5 Points -165 (BetMGM)
Connor Brown Under 0.5 Points -115 (BetMGM)

Late Adds:

Tyler Seguin Under 0.5 Points -120 (BetMGM)
Artemi Panarin Under 2.5 Shots -115 (DraftKings)
Victor Olofsson Under 2.5 Shots -130 (DraftKings)
Nick Schmaltz Under 0.5 Points -140 (DraftKings)

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