NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 5/30


Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.


Record: 112-109, %plussign% -5.4 units, -2.4 percent ROI

Market Report for Saturday, May 28th

Game 7 between the Rangers and Hurricanes. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

New York Rangers (%plussign% 120) at Carolina Hurricanes (-140)

Carolina won’t be able to win a Stanley Cup if they can’t win on the road, but they can forget about that for now. The Hurricanes haven’t lost at home in the playoffs, and they just must win one more game to play at least four more in against the Tampa Bay Lightning the conference finals. Then again, Igor Shesterkin only must steal one game and that’s well within the realm of possibilities. Antti Raanta was awful in Game 6, and his poor play helped the Rangers steal the momentum away from the Hurricanes. He’s been great in the playoffs, but for the second series in a row, he and the Hurricanes have failed to put a team away in Game 6. Carolina is the better team overall, but the Rangers have been able to close the gap with great goaltending. Saturday’s seven-goal game was the first to go over the total in the series, but the betting market is wise to the fact that scoring is typically lower in a Game 7. The median number of goals scored is 4.5 since 2011 and 17 of the last 25 have stayed under 5.5 goals. The total for this game is set at five (over -140) and that’s appropriate given the trend, and how the series has played out. After six games, the teams appear to be much more evenly matched than my model predicted, and it now suggests a fair price for the game ought to be around -142, which is in line with the market.


Player Prop Picks via DraftKings Sportsbook:

Andrei Svechnikov Over 2.5 Shots -125

Svechnikov disappointed in Game 6 as he had just 1 shot on goal (four attempts) and played roughly 14 minutes. His ice time has been up and down in this series, but with the season on the line, head coach Rod Brind’Amour should be looking for the 30-goal scorer to shoot the puck like he did in Games 3, 4 and 5. If we take the last four games at face value, we should expect Carolina to put up somewhere between 30 and 40 shots in regulation, as they've averaged 37 per 60 minutes over their last four.

Notes: Sportsbooks typically post props for goaltender saves later in the day and that’s something I’m interested in. Check back later for an update.

Bet Summary:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Andrei Svechnikov Over 2.5 Shots -125

Record: 120-120, -12.35 units, -4.38 percent ROI