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Market Report for Sunday, Oct. 23rd
Recap: 20 percent of all NHL games this season have seen teams rally to win from a multi-goal deficit, and I had been on the wrong side of nearly one quarter of those, but things turned around with a 3-0 sweep on Saturday:
First, the Bruins (barely) fought off a comeback after going up 3-1 on the Minnesota Wild and came away with an overtime win. Then, the Penguins completed a 6-3 comeback against the Columbus Blue Jackets after falling behind by a couple of goals. And of course, the Sabres showed no mercy in their 5-1 win over the Vancouver Canucks after going up 2-0 early in the game.
Wins: 13 Losses: 11 Units Won: 1.09 units ROI: 4.6 percent
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Today: Sunday’s card is ugly.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size.
Seattle Kraken (-145) at Chicago Blackhawks (%plussign% 125)
Former teammates Martin Jones and Alex Stalock will go head-to-head on Sunday as they guard the nets for their respective teams. This game will likely garner a lot of attention from bettors for that reason. However, don’t go thinking that Chicago or Seattle can fill the net with ease. The Blackhawks and Kraken rank 30th and 31st on offense at even strength and they’re in the bottom third of the league overall (all situations) when it comes to goal scoring. Bettors that backed the Kraken at the overnight might’ve made out alright depending on the odds. I might have placed a small bet on the Kraken at -135 or -140, but I’m not sad that the line moved. Seattle isn’t a bad team, but their goaltending is atrocious, and Chicago is scoring goals at about the same rate. My model prices the road team at around -150.
New York Islanders (%plussign% 175) at Florida Panthers (-200)
The Islanders were one of the most popular bets on Saturday thanks to the fact that the Tampa Bay Lightning were playing their second game in as many days with backup Brian Elliott guarding the cage. Bettors flocked to bet on New York early in the day and the odds moved heavily in their direction, but the Islanders were never really in the game and lost by a score of 5-3. Ilya Sorokin was in goal for the loss, which means Semyon Varlamov will almost certainly be in the crease on Sunday.
Varlamov is a good backup who is capable of being a starter, in my opinion, but my model predicts that the Panthers will win this game approximately 65 percent of the time, even with their injury troubles. That doesn’t mean they’re a good bet, though. Converting 65 percent to US odds will give you -185 and that means there’s no value betting on either of these teams at the current market price.
Columbus Blue Jackets (%plussign% 240) at New York Rangers (-280)
New York was being priced as high as -275 by some operators, including those that are known for accepting large bets from sharp bettors, while others were sitting at around -220 or -225 long after the initial moves. That’s no longer the case, though, as even retail books must catch up eventually. And besides, I don’t think it would be right for me to make my right up about picking off bad lines at retail sportsbooks. Doing that regularly will result in limits being placed on your account, or worse. The good prices weren’t widely available this morning, though, so it wouldn’t have been fair for me to suggest betting on the Rangers and count it on my record at a price that not everybody had a chance to obtain. My model estimates that the Rangers are now being priced in a more appropriate range and there’s no longer any value in betting them to win this game, even though they’ll likely do so easily.
Anaheim Ducks (%plussign% 125) at Detroit Red Wings (-145)
Trying to make a case for either of these teams would be like polishing a turd. The Red Wings mostly stink because of injuries to two of their best players, Jakub Vrana and Tyler Bertuzzi, while the Ducks stink because they’re soft and inexperienced. There are several ways the coaches can choose to play this, as far as who will start in goal for each team, and that makes it tough to set a line on this game. However, I’m almost certain that I won’t be betting on either of these teams unless there’s a big shift in the odds, though.
San Jose Sharks (%plussign% 110) at Philadelphia Flyers (-130)
In the last 15 years, no team has scored fewer goals (per 60 minutes than the 2013-14 Buffalo Sabres. I tell you this because it helps illustrate how bad 2022-23 San Jose Sharks have been: