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All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page
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Market Report Recap for Saturday, Dec. 1st
Early Bets: Carolina and Columbus combined to go over the total of six goals. It was probably more of a sweat than it should’ve been, as the Hurricanes dominated the game but couldn’t beat goaltender Daniil Tarasov early in the game. It was a good way to start the day and the year.
Late Adds: The Maple Leafs got Mitch Marner back in the lineup, and the Senators started Matt Murray in goal. Ottawa barely touched the puck in the game, and Toronto should’ve been up by several goals a lot sooner than they were. They poured in on in the third period, though, and won the game 6-0, easily covering the -1.5 puck line at -125.
Game Lines:
54-46, %plussign% 3.18 units, 3.3 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -108
Player Props:
107-101, -6.15 units, -2.48 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -108
Market Report for Sunday, Jan. 2nd
There are seven games on Sunday, but there is one game that I think is important to focus on before getting into anything else.
Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:
Tampa Bay Lightning (-105) at New York Rangers (-115)
Andrei Vasilevskiy has cleared COVID protocol, which means he’ll probably be between the pipes on Sunday when the Lightning visit the Rangers. It’s the second half of a home-and-home series. The Rangers won the first game in Tampa Bay by a score of 4-3 in extra time. It’s unclear whether forward Anthony Cirelli will be back in the lineup or not, as he is still in COVID protocol, but Mikhail Sergachev is ready to go. The team won’t have Taylor Raddysh, Zach Bogosian or Cal Foote, though.
Assuming Vasilevskiy gets the start, and Anthony Cirelli is out, the Lightning should be priced as a small favorite if Igor Shesterkin is in goal for the Rangers. There's a chance that Brian Elliott gets the start for the Lightning, which would cause the odds to shift significantly in the direction of the home team. If that happens, and the game is priced as a pick em', the Rangers would be a value bet. As of right now, though, it doesn't look like I'll be taking a position on either side. This is the third game in four days, and the fourth in six, for the Lightning, who have been busy since coming back from the break.
Update: Big news. Artemi Panarin has been placed in COVID protocol. The Lightning should now be priced around -135, but the line moved very fast. I have a small position on Under 5.5 goals at -115, but didn't get everything I wanted and, like the moneyline, the total moved fast.
San Jose Sharks (%plussign% 145) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-165)
Evgeni Malkin will not be ready to play on Sunday, and the Penguins are missing Jeff Carter, Kasperi Kapenen, and Tristan Jarry due to COVID. Jarry was added to the list a few days before Carter and Kapanen, but he apparently has mild symptoms, which means he probably won't be clearing COVID protocol until those symptoms clear up and he meets the testing standards. Pittsburgh is also missing a few depth players, like Teddy Blueger, Sam Lafferty, Pierre-Oliver Joseph and Jason Zucker, but Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust will be game-time decisions. The Sharks aren't missing any important players, but they've been playing awful hockey as of late, and if Guentzel and Rust are back in the lineup, the Penguins should be priced around -180. Guentzel is the more impactful player, though, and he matters a lot more than Rust. If Guentzel doesn't play, the current line of -165 is fair.
Notes: Casey DeSmith and James Reimer are expected to be the starting goaltenders.
Update: Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel will return to the Pittsburgh lineup on Sunday. I've taken a smaller position on the Penguins at -165 or better and I also made a small bet on over 5.5 goals at -125 or better.
PIck:
Pittsburgh Penguins -165 (half size)
Over 5.5 -125 (half size)
Boston Bruins (-150) at Detroit Red Wings (%plussign% 130)
Boston trailed the Sabres 3-1 on Saturday, but ultimately won the game in overtime by a score of 4-3. Boston played well, and they're in a good position to get a win and leap over the Red Wings in the standings. Detroit currently holds a wild card spot, but I would not be surprised if this is the last time that the Red Wings find themselves in the playoff picture this season. Detroit has a -18 goal differential and they rank as one of the worst teams in the league through the lens of shot attempts and expected goals. The Bruins are on the opposite side of the spectrum, however, Boston still struggles to score goals at the rate that you would expect them to, based on the shots and scoring chances that they generate, and their goaltending has been average at best. According to my model, because the Bruins are on the second half of a back-to-back, they aren't as big of a favorite as they would be if they were not in this situation. Jeremy Swayman will start in goal for the Bruins, and assuming Alex Nedeljkovic starts in goal for the Red Wings, the Bruins should be priced around -160. If Thomas Greiss gets the start, the Bruins would be a value bet at -155 or better.
Anaheim Ducks (%plussign% 210) at Colorado Avalanche (-250)
I do my best to estimate how much a player means to a team, and I thought I had accounted for the fact that Trevor Zegras is out, but after a couple of games, it's clear that the Ducks will go as far as he takes them. Adam Henrique, Max Comtois, Josh Mahura and Cam Fowler are also probably going to miss Sunday's game. The Ducks only owned 30 percent of the expected goals over their last two games, and even if they pick up their play, they probably won't be able to get anything going against the Avalanche. The Avalanche have all their big guns, with only Ryan Murray and Valeri Nischuskin on the injured list, and according to my model, they should be priced around -250.
Notes: Darcy Kuemper and John Gibson are expected to start in goal.
New Jersey Devils (%plussign% 190) at Washington Capitals (-220)
The Devils have won two games in a row for the first time since winning three straight games back in the middle of November. They are a bad hockey team, but they have a good penalty kill and some talented forwards. However, goaltender MacKenzie Blackwood has been bad this season, and he no longer gives the Devils a lift. That could change in 2022, but this is a young team and Blackwood is often hung out to dry. Washington isn't at full strength, but they've got their best players in the lineup, and according to my model they will do so about 70 percent of the time. That means a fair price for this game, in my opinion, should be around -235. I do worry that my model likes the Devils a little too much, but unless the price shifts in New Jersey's direction, I probably won't be taking a position on either side.
Winnipeg Jets (%plussign% 120) at Vegas Golden Knights (-140)
Max Pacioretty is out indefinitely after undergoing wrist surgery, and Mark Stone is day-to-day. Goaltender Robin Lehner is also listed as day-to-day, which means Laurent Brossoit could make his third consecutive start in goal. Brossoit has played well, but it's been the team in front of him that's really picked been carrying the load. The Golden Knights have been playing great hockey without Stone and Pacioretty, but it's hard to forget just how bad their underlying numbers were earlier in the season. Winnipeg won't have Blake Wheeler, or Andrew Copp, and it's their first game since the break, which means this isn't a good spot for Winnipeg. With that said, the Golden Knights should be priced around -140, according to my model, and that means I probably won't be taking a position on either side.
Calgary Flames (-155) at Chicago Blackhawks (%plussign% 135)
This situation is like the one I was faced with a couple of days ago, as the Flames were playing the Kraken (who had just played the night before) and opened very short. The Blackhawks were blown out by the Predators at home on Saturday, as goaltenders Marc-Andre Fleury and Kevin Lankinen were stuck in COVID protocol. There’s a chance that the former could be out in time to suit up for Sunday’s game against Calgary, but there’s more than enough value to justify taking an early stand. According to my model, the Flames should be priced north of -200 if Collin Delia or Arvid Soderblom end up between the pipes again, however, even if Fleury is good to go, the Flames are a good bet at -175 or better. The Flames are an elite team, and they have great goaltending. According to Evolving Hockey, only the Maple Leafs grade out better than Calgary by expected goals (for and against) and the Blackhawks continue to struggle with a 40 percent goal share in all situations. The Flames roster should be at full strength on Sunday.
Notes: -175 isn't the best price you can find, but the line is all over the place, depending on what shop, so I just decided to grade the bet at my cut off. -160 was the best line that I played, but laying -165, -170 and -175 is acceptable. As far as the puck line, bet %plussign% 145 or better. Jacob Markstrom is expected to start in goal.
Pick:
Calgary Flames -175
Calgary Flames Puck Line -1.5, %plussign% 150 (half size)
Bet Summary
Early Bets:
Calgary Flames -175
Calgary Flames Puck Line -1.5, %plussign% 150 (half size)
Pittsburgh Penguins -165 (half size)
San Jose Sharks – Pittsburgh Penguins Over 5.5, -125 (half size)
Late Adds:
