Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. Follow me on Twitter to stay up to date as I handicap the NHL each day.
Market Report for Tuesday, Oct. 25th
Recap: Things got a little to sweaty for my liking, but both bets (Washington and Carolina) won on Monday.
Wins: 15 Losses: 11 Units Won: 4.19 units ROI: 15.4 percent
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Today: With 10 games on Tuesday, you'd think I'd have a lot of action, but I don't. In fact, I only have one small wager to start the day. There might be reason to get down on another game later, though, so follow me on Twitter to get notified of any updates.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Arizona Coyotes (%plussign% 180) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-210)
Columbus isn’t a good team. No team has given up more shots on a per 60-minute basis so far this season, and only five teams have given up more goals. The Coyotes are in a league of their own, though, and that’s why Columbus is such a big favorite on Tuesday. Arizona has allowed six goals in four out of their first five games and they’re scoring just one even strength goal per game.
The Coyotes could be looking past this game with their home opener coming up later this week. The home team is far from a lock, though. Columbus is playing their third game in four days, though, and both teams are dealing with injuries to key players. My model estimates that the Blue Jackets should be priced around -180. In other words, the home team’s odds are inflated, but not enough to warrant a bet on the road team.
Update: Patrik Laine will return to the Blue Jackets' lineup on Tuesday. I'm still not betting on this game, but that is an important piece of information that bettors should be aware of. Danill Tarasov is expected to start in goal.
Dallas Stars (%plussign% 130) at Boston Bruins (-150)
Dallas fell to the Senators in Ottawa on Monday by a score of 4-2 after jumping out to an early lead. Scott Wedgewood was in goal, though, which means Jake Oettinger will be the starting goaltender on Tuesday. There’s a chance Jeremy Swayman could get the start for the Bruins, but with Linus Ullmark playing so well, I think it’s more likely that head coach Jim Montgomery saves Swayman for one of the two games the Bruins will play on Thursday (vs. Detroit) and Friday (at Columbus).
The Stars have looked good to start the season, but we haven’t really learned anything about the team yet and won’t until they play more games. I’m willing to bet that they’re still a mediocre team. I didn’t even have Dallas projected to make the playoffs this season, and the Bruins have played well versus much tougher competition. Boston currently ranks second in expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey, and they grade out as a stronger team all around. My model estimates the Bruins should be priced around -160, and that means I can justify making a small wager on them to win the game.
Bet: Boston Bruins -150 Stake: 0.75 units to win 0.5 units
Update: Jake Oettinger will start in goal for the Stars. Linus Ullmark is expected to start in goal for the Bruins.
Minnesota Wild (-185) at Montreal Canadiens (%plussign% 165)
Minnesota might get back in the win column, but I’m not betting on them to do so. They’ve allowed more goals per game than any other team in the league and their underlying metrics suggest they’ve really fallen off since last season. Minnesota ranks 29th in expected goals and 30th in goals (for and against). They will likely improve, given how much talent they have, but their goaltending is atrocious and I have no interest in laying a big price with this team right now.
Update: Jake Allen and Marc-Andre Fleury will be the starting goaltenders.
New Jersey Devils (-115) at Detroit Red Wings (-105)
New Jersey failed their first real test of the season on Monday when they fell 6-3 to the Washington Capitals. Vitek Vanecek played the third period after MacKenzie Blackwood was chased from the game after allowing the first five goals, and he will almost certainly start Tuesday's game in Detroit. The Red Wings will be icing a less than optimal roster due to injuries to some of their top players, Tyler Bertuzzi and Jakub Vrana, and it's unclear who they will start in goal. Either way, I'm not interested in messing with either of these teams today. My model estimates that Detroit will win the game approximately 53 percent of the time if Ville Husso starts in goal.
Update: Alex Nedeljkovic will start in goal for the Red Wings. Their chances of winning the game aren't as good as they would've been with Husso in goal, but I still don't think there's a any reason to bet on either side here.
Colorado Avalanche (-110) at New York Rangers (-110)
This is the first half of a back-to-back for New York. The Rangers will travel to Long Island to play the Islanders on Wednesday. One would assume that New York will start Igor Shesterkin against Colorado, but we won’t know for sure until head coach Gerard Gallant makes his announcement. I’m going to guess the Avalanche will start former Rangers’ goaltender Alex Georgiev, but nothing has been confirmed.
Note: Devon Toews is listed as day-to-day with an injury and Gabriel Landeskog is out long term.
Florida Panthers (-235) at Chicago Blackhawks (%plussign% 200)
Will the Florida beat Chicago? Probably. Are they a good bet to do so? Not according to my model. The Panthers are barely scraping by. Two of the Panthers four wins have come against the New York Islanders, and the other two were against Buffalo and Philadelphia. They aren’t scoring goals, at least not to start the season, like they were last year, and they’re missing their best defender, Aaron Ekblad. I was relieved to see that my model was in line with the market price, because I really don’t want to be laying chalk on this team right now.
Update: With Petr Mrazek out due to an injury, Alex Stalock will start for the Blackhawks.
Pittsburgh Penguins (%plussign% 135) at Calgary Flames (-155)
Monday’s game in Edmonton was Pittsburgh’s first real challenge of the season. It was the first time they had played a (good) team that wasn’t playing tired since the start of the season, and they lost 6-3. The Flames are a much better team than the Oilers, so obviously that means their odds of beating the Penguins will be much better. My model estimates that Calgary should be priced somewhere around -155 assuming Jacob Markstrom gets the start. No bet.
Buffalo Sabres (EVEN) at Seattle Kraken (-120)
As bettors, we are constantly buying and selling teams. I don’t believe it’s time to sell on the Sabres and bet against them, but their odds aren’t generous enough to bet on them. Don’t get me wrong, this is a winnable game for the Sabres. I just don’t think their chances of beating Seattle are better than 46.5 percent, and they’d have to be for me to be able to justify betting on them. Both my model, and my intuition, tell me this is a good spot to back off the Sabres.
Note: Yanni Gourde is expected to be play on Tuesday after missing one game due to personal reasons.
Vegas Golden Knights (-185) at San Jose Sharks (%plussign% 165)
Vegas is coming off a big win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on home ice, so they’ll be playing tired, but the team has something to rally around: 35-year-old Phil Kessel will break the record for consecutive games played and become the league’s iron man. The Golden Knights will likely beat San Jose and win the game, but the market is about as low as you can go on the Sharks, who are playing their third game in four nights. My model suggests Vegas is priced appropriately at -185.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-130) at Los Angeles Kings (%plussign% 110)
This is the first half of a back-to-back for the Lightning. They will play the Ducks in Anaheim on Wednesday. I highly doubt Andrei Vasilevskiy is going to start both games, which means backup Brian Elliott could start in Los Angeles on Tuesday. If that’s the case, I’ll have some interest in betting on the Kings, but I need the team to make an announcement because I’m not going to guess.
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2021-22 Betting Season Recap:
NHL Betting Guide (Futures): plus-25.9 units
Reg Season (Sides and Totals): plus-6.22 units
Player Props: minus-15.33 units
Playoffs (Sides and Totals): minus-14.43 units
Thoughts: I tried to do too much last season (The Propagator is one example) because it was the first time that I was going to be producing content at large scale. I was worried that my typical betting habits would be seen as too selective and therefore not enough for the average VSiN subscriber. I was wrong.
Going forward: I am back to focusing on what has worked for me all along: Making long term forecasts for futures markets and handicapping all 1,312 regular season game
