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Market Report for Wednesday, October. 12th
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but always shop around for the best price.
All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake.
Boston Bruins (%plussign% 120) at Washington Capitals (-140)
Carl Hagelin, Tom Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom won’t be in the lineup when the Capitals open the season on Wednesday, but they’re still in better shape than the Boston Bruins, who are missing Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie McAvoy and Brad Marchand. The Capitals should be listed as the favorite, as I do have them rated higher than the Bruins thanks to the injuries, but my model estimates that that their odds should be around -125.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-260) at Montreal Canadiens (%plussign% 220)
Hockey fans are always treated to a matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Montreal Canadiens early in the regular season, and these October games are almost always decided by a single goal. Of course, the gap between these two teams has never been larger, but that has never seemed to matter when they meet for the first time.
I’ve got the Maple Leafs and Canadiens projected to finish at opposite sides of the Atlantic Division standings, but the latter’s offense is intriguing. Only 10 teams scored more goals than Montreal did after Martin St. Louis took over as head coach and that will at least make things interesting on Wednesday, and throughout the season.
Notes: Montreal’s No. 1 overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky will make his NHL debut. Matt Murray will make his first start in goal as a member of the Maple Leafs.
Columbus Blue Jackets (%plussign% 210) at Carolina Hurricanes (-250)
The Hurricanes should be priced much higher than -250, and if you shop around, you will almost certainly find a better price. The Hurricanes have dominated the Blue Jackets over the last couple of seasons and 2022-23 should be no different because these two teams are on very different paths. According to my model, Carolina should be priced north of -270, and that’s enough to justify a wager.
Bet: Carolina Hurricanes -250, Stake: 2 units to win 0.8 units
Chicago Blackhawks (%plussign% 330) at Colorado Avalanche (-400)
Chicago really should just rip the Band-Aid off and trade Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews already. Maybe getting their teeth kicked in by the defending Stanley Cup champions will be enough of a nudge. My model is in line with the market, so not much to talk about here from a betting perspective. The Avalanche aren’t a value bet at -400, but I’m glad I won’t have to consider betting on the Blackhawks. Even if Alex Georgiev starts for Colorado, it won’t be enough to flip the game script.
Notes: The Avalanche will be raising their Stanley Cup banner to the rafters prior to puck drop.
Seattle Kraken (%plussign% 110) at Anaheim Ducks (-130)
I didn’t bet on the Kraken very often in 2021-22, but I feel the pain of those who did. Seattle was a money pit for hockey bettors last season. Hopefully that will change in 2022-23, because there looks to be a decent hockey team here. They have everything that Anaheim has and than some. At least that’s how I view the teams at this point. My model suggests that this game should be priced closer to 50-50, and therefore, betting the Kraken at %plussign% 110 makes a lot of sense.
Bet: Seattle Kraken %plussign% 110, Stake: 0.8 units to win 1.68 units
Vancouver Canucks (%plussign% 170) at Edmonton Oilers (-190)
It took a while to get going under new head coach Bruce Boudreau, but once the Canucks did, they made waves. Vancouver was a top offensive team in the second half of last season and there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic about their chances in 2022-23. However, my model generated a price of roughly -170 for the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday, which means there’s no value in fading Connor McDavid and I’m OK with that.
