Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.
All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.
Record: 112-109, %plussign% -5.4 units, -2.4 percent ROI
Market Report for Wednesday, June 1st
After Tuesday’s wild 14-goal game in Colorado, the running joke is that we’ll see a tiny fraction of that on Wednesday in New York as Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy will go head-to-head when the Lightning and Rangers kick off the Eastern Conference final. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-125) at New York Rangers (%plussign% 105)
There are many ways that a game or a series can play out, but a matchup between the Lightning and Rangers doesn’t scream offense. It will likely be a much different kind of hockey than what we’ve seen in the Western Conference final, but that’s not a bad thing. If you ask hockey fans to pick a goaltender to win them one game, a lot will choose Andrei Vasilevskiy. I would, and that won’t change in the short term, regardless of the result of the Eastern Conference final. However, Igor Shesterkin would be my second choice, though. This should be a great matchup between two goaltenders that are in their prime. Vasilevskiy is 27 (soon to be 28) and has a lot more NHL experience than Shesterkin, but the latter is 26 and he spent parts of six seasons in Russia’s KHL. Shesterkin would be the most feared goaltender in the playoffs if not for Vasilevskiy allowing just three goals in four games against the Panthers, who were the best offensive team in 26 years. The Rangers scored goals at an average rate in the regular season, and it took an awful performance from Antti Raanta in Games 6 and 7 for the Rangers to generate more than three goals. The Lightning are rested, and while the injury to Brayden Point does hurt their chances of winning the series, and Game 1, my model estimates that there is enough value to justify making a small wager at -125.
Pick:
Tampa Bay Lightning -125 (half size)
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I recommended a bet on the Rangers to score fewer than three goals (under 2.5) at even money in Point Spread Weekly, but the line has moved to -115 and that’s about where it should be. New York is on home ice, after all. But it aligns with my strategy in this series, which is to identify players that might not generate offense at the rate that their odds imply they will. However, a lot of the bets I was hoping to make aren’t as advantageous as I thought they might be, which is a bummer. For example, Anthony Cirelli is still playing on the top line, but his odds not to score a point aren’t -130 like they were against the Panthers, they’re -175. Still, there are a few players that I am going to bet against tonight, but my perceived edge is small and that means my stake will be, too. I don’t really think they’re worth getting into, but there is one bet that I made that’s worth mentioning.
Player Prop Bets via DraftKings Sportsbook:
Igor Shesterkin Over 28.5 Saves -105
The Rangers are giving up almost 37 shots per 60 minutes in the playoffs and the Lightning are rested. Tampa Bay should be able to dictate the pace of Game 1 and generate somewhere in the neighbourhood of 35 shots, and Shesterkin probably won’t be easily beat.
Bet Summary:
Tampa Bay Lightning -125 (half size)
Player Prop Bets:
Igor Shesterkin Over 28.5 Saves -105
Record: 120-121, -13.60 units, -4.80 percent ROI
