Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.
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All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick. Follow me on Twitter.
Record: 114-114, -8.20 units, -3.5 percent ROI
Market Report Recap for Game 5
Friday’s game stayed under the total even though it the two teams played at a high pace and put their skill on display. Both goaltenders showed up for the second game in a row.
Market Report for Game 6
Let’s look at Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final from a betting perspective.
Colorado Avalanche (-115) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-105)
Colorado owned nearly 70 percent of the expected goals after the first two games of the Stanley Cup Final, and while they have continued to carry the play, things have been a lot closer over the last three games. This shows (once again) how good Tampa Bay is at adjusting in a series. Colorado was listed as high as -210 on the moneyline heading into Game 5, but Andrei Vasilevskiy stayed perfect when facing elimination. It was only the fourth time since 2020 that the Lightning have faced elimination since 2020, and Vasilevskiy has posted a .945 save percentage in those games. The margin for error is razor thin, though, and the Lightning are fortunate that the series isn’t over already. Even though they’re up 3-2 in the series, Colorado has trailed more., and they’ve really tested Tampa Bay’s ability to hold a lead. The Lightning are comfortable playing with a one-goal lead, but it’s hard to sustain that type of play when you’ve got a team like Colorado all over you. Vasilevskiy is going to need to be the MVP of the next two games if the Lightning are going to stay alive and win the Cup.
From a handicapping perspective, I feel like I’m flipping coins at this point. It’s the Stanley Cup Final and betting into this market isn’t necessarily an advantage play. My model suggests the game priced appropriately, and my read on the series wasn’t profitable. One area that I hope to be profitable in is the Conn Smythe Trophy market. I’m holding Cale Makar at 13/1 to win the award, and he is the current front runner. Of course, the Avalanche must win the Stanley Cup for him to be named MVP, but Makar has been great in the final. He’s got three goals and four assists in five games against Tampa Bay, and only Nathan MacKinnon has generated more shot attempts than Makar has. Makar didn’t have a point or a shot on goal in Game 1, but since then he’s been at the top of his game. Makar has registered 19 shots on goal in his last four games and has hit the net five times in each of his last three games. He’s registered at least four shots in 12 out of 19 playoff games, and my favorite bet for Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final is Makar over 3.5 shots at %plussign% 105.
Player Prop Picks via DraftKings Sportsbook:
Cale Makar Over 3.5 Shots %plussign% 105
Bet Summary:
There are no recommended bets currently.
Player Prop Bets:
Cale Makar Over 3.5 Shots %plussign% 105
Record: 127-130, -15.3 units, -5.1 percent ROI
