Tampa Bay Lightning
A preview of the 2026-27 NHL season for the Tampa Bay Lightning, including predictions from VSiN NHL Expert Jonathan Davis. For all other NHL team previews, check out our NHL page.
Key Additions: John Carlson, Dennis Hildeby, Jeffrey Viel, Ilya Mikheyev
Key Departures: Darryn Raddysh, Nick Paul, Corey Perry, Oliver Bjorkstrand
Overview
The 2025-26 season was another strong campaign for the Lightning, who won 50 games for the first time since losing in the Cup Final to Colorado (2021-22). The 2021-22 season marked the last time they made it past the opening round. The Bolts earned a playoff berth for the ninth consecutive season, tying Colorado for the longest active streak. But for the fourth consecutive season, Tampa Bay was a first-round casualty. Nikita Kucherov captured his second Hart Trophy (league MVP), and his 44 goals and 130 points placed him second in scoring behind Connor McDavid (138 points).
Offense
Only three teams scored more goals than the Tampa Bay Lightning’s 286. Nikita Kucherov landed on 44 goals for the second time in three seasons; Jake Guentzel (38) and Brandon Hagel (36) also flirted with 40-goal seasons. But the offense was never the same after Brayden Point suffered a knee injury in January. Point played 63 games and all seven playoff games, but his 18 regular-season goals (42 in 2024-25) and just one goal in seven playoff games underscored his importance as the team’s number center. A first-round elimination gives Point a longer off-season to recover and be ready to lead Tampa’s top line. The off-season addition of Ilya Mikheyev should improve the penalty kill. Ilya Mikheyev was part of Chicago’s top penalty-killing unit, which finished second overall in the NHL last season.
Defense
Darryn Raddysh’s breakout season, 22 goals and 70 points, made him too expensive for the Lightning as the UFA signed a mega-bucks, eight-year, $68 million deal with the division rival Maple Leafs. Tampa replaced Raddysh with veteran John Carlson. He may not match the numbers Raddysh put up last season, but he comes off a 60-point season (Washington/Anaheim) and has three 70-point seasons on his resume. Lightning captain Victor Hedman played just 33 games in 2025-26 and left the team last March as he was dealing with mental health issues. Hedman says he is in a far better place mentally and pronounced himself good to go for the upcoming season. J.J. Moser, Eric Cernak, Ryan McDonagh and Charle-Edouard D’Astous round out the top six on the blueline.
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy is coming off a Vezina Trophy-winning season where he led all goalies with 39 wins and an impressive .912 save percentage. His 58 starts last season were tied for third most in the league. Hoping to take some of the load off Vasilevskiy to win every time out, the Bolts acquired Dennis Hildeby from Toronto. Hildeby, once thought to be the goalie of the future in Toronto, got caught up in a numbers game, especially with the signing of free agent goalie Sergei Bobrovsky.
Player to Watch
I am going to focus on a player further down the depth chart: Dominic James. One of the trademarks of the Lightning when they won Stanley Cups was having players in the bottom of the lineup that contributed to the offense. The Michigan native scored seven goals and had just 15 points last season, but he added two goals in the final three games of the Lightning’s opening-round loss to Montreal and then scored three goals in four games for their top minor league team (Syracuse Crunch) in their playoff run. I wouldn’t be shocked to see James score as many as 15 goals this season.
Outlook
Never count out Tampa to make the playoffs with Jon Cooper as their coach and players like Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel, Victor Hedman, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. The number one question in Tampa is when we see clarity on last season’s Hart Trophy winner and impending UFA, Nikita Kucherov. He is in the final year of a deal that pays him $9.5 million, and the Lightning will have to do some cap gymnastics to pay him even a “team-friendly” deal.
Team Futures
Regular Season Points: 102.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
To Make the Playoffs: (-390)
To Miss the Playoffs: (+295)
To Win the Division: (+295)
To Win the Eastern Conference: (+600)
To Win the Stanley Cup: (+1200)
2025-26 Recap
Record: 50-26-6 (106 points, 2nd Atlantic Division)
Over/Under: 41-38-3
Home Favorite: 26-14 // Home Dog: 1-0
Road Favorite: 18-13 // Road Dog: 6-4
Win Score 4 or more: 38 of 50 // Lose Give Up 4 or more: 22 of 32
Puck Line Wins: 36 of 50 // Puck Line Losses: 16 of 32
Front End Back-to-Back: 12-3 // Back End Back-to-Back: 7-8
Points Leaders: Nikita Kucherov – 130
Goal Leader: Nikita Kucherov – 44
Teams First Goal Leader: Brandon Hagel – 12, Jake Guentzel – 10
Assist Leader: Nikita Kucherov – 86
Shots on Goal Leader: Nikita Kucherov – 231
Blocked Shots Leader: Erik Cernak – 99
Depth Chart
Forwards
Jake Guentzel / Brayden Point / Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel / Anthony Cirelli / Gage Goncalves
Zemgus Girgensons / Yanni Gourde / Pontus Holmberg
Jeffrey Viel / Dominic James / Ilya Mikheyev
Defense
Janis Moser / John Carlson
Victor Hedman / Charlie-Edouard D’Astous
Ryan McDonagh / Erik Cernak
Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy / Dennis Hildeby
