NHL Playoffs Betting Strategies:
The NHL playoffs open on Saturday, April 19th, and as always, it will be an exciting time for fans and bettors alike, particularly those following some of the top seeds heading into the tournament. This year’s postseason looks as balanced as ever, with six different teams listed by DraftKings as having title odds of +900 or shorter. Those teams include Dallas (+700), Florida (+800), Colorado (+800), Edmonton (+900), Tampa Bay (+900), and Carolina (+900). However, unlike the NBA, where lower seeds have zero chance to win it all or even advance a series or two, any of the 16 teams vying for the Stanley Cup Trophy could get it if they get hot at the right time. Perhaps the only team that oddsmakers don’t think belongs is Montreal, who is listed at +10000.
The regular season is one thing. The postseason is an entirely different animal. Simply put, the intensity of the games in the playoffs is unrivaled. The focus of bettors in preparing for game, series, and future bets should match that. It’s easy to get a little overzealous at this time of year, and that often leads to poor judgment and, consequently, wagering errors.
I have found over the recent years of the NHL playoffs that if you stick to a set of certain fundamentals, the postseason can be rewarding, and hence more fun to partake in. For instance, home ice doesn’t mean nearly as much as the experts make it out to be. Also, the intensity ramping up doesn’t equate to more goals. In fact, quite the opposite. Furthermore, teams get motivated by certain factors within individual series, and at the top of that list is usually losing games.
With all this in mind, I thought this would be a great time to share my list of 15 betting concepts I’ve uncovered that could guide your NHL playoff betting over the course of the next couple of months. Assuming nothing goes haywire, following these patterns from the last decade-plus of action should lead you down the road to profits, and perhaps more importantly, avoiding obvious mistakes that can kill your bankroll. Some of you familiar with this piece will recognize that I’ve added three new concepts into the fold.
You’ll see that I’ve displayed 15 different systems and have grouped them in six different areas of handicapping focus.
Key home/road stats
Once again in 2024, road teams proved to be the far better investment over the long haul of the playoffs than home teams.
In fact, after going 46-42 for +8.7 units last spring, for the last eight non-neutral playoff seasons, road teams are 337-361 for +37.25 units, an ROI of 5.3%. Hosts have lost 108.45 units for their backers in that same span (-15.5% ROI)! If you consider no other strategy this season, simply backing the road team in playoff games has led to consistent profits.
Since 2012, the Stanley Cup Final Round of the NHL Playoffs is the only one in which home teams have produced a profit for bettors. Perhaps not a surprise considering the enhanced stakes. Here are the records:
First Round: 290-268 (-79.35 units, -14.2% ROI)
Second Round: 160-124 (-13.85 units, -4.9% ROI)
Conference Finals: 73-67 (-19.6 units, -14% ROI)
Stanley Cup: 42-28 (+3.25 units, +4.6% ROI)
Game Six in an NHL Playoffs series is also the only one in which home teams have produced a profit for bettors.
The negative returns for hosts in games 1, 2, 5, and 7 are particularly troubling, since those are the games hosted by the better seed, and all four are below -8.8% ROI. Here are the records by game #:
Game One: 103-77 (-15.85 units, -8.8% ROI)
Game Two: 100-80 (-28.95 units, -16.1% ROI)
Game Three: 89-91 (-19.4 units, -10.8% ROI)
Game Four: 93-87 (-7.95 units, -4.4% ROI)
Game Five: 85-73 (-33.3 units, -21.1% ROI)
Game Six: 66-53 (+4.45 units, 3.7% ROI)
Game Seven: 30-25 (-8.6 units, -15.6% ROI)
Angles based on the status of the series
Betting on teams trailing in an NHL playoff series has been the far better option than backing teams leading a series.
The difference has been dramatic for bettors, as teams trailing in a series are 359-347 for +13.4 units, an ROI of +1.9% since 2012. Teams leading a series have lost -88.25 units for an ROI of -12.5% in that same span. That is a 14.4% swing on return if investing properly.
Since 2015, of the games in which teams look to close out series early, they have been most successful in Game Six by far.
In Games Four and Five, these teams have gone just 51-53 for -26.2 units and an ugly ROI of -25.2%! In Game Six closeout opportunities during that same span, they are 56-42 for +6.85 units, or an ROI loss of 7.0%. That represents a massive swing of over 32% return.
Importance of the money line -140
In terms of line ranges, -140 is a key betting number in the NHL playoffs over the last decade-plus.
Favorites of -140 or more are 396-302 SU (56.7%) but have lost -115.35 units for bettors, a ROI of -16.5%! Favorites of -115 to -135 have gone 207-166 SU (55.5%) in that same span, a net loss of a mere -0.3 units, or a ROI of -0.1%, or nearly dead even. As you can see, there are similar win percentages for outright success levels of teams in those two very distinct line ranges. Furthermore, how rewarding has it been to back all underdogs of +120 or higher in the NHL playoffs over the last 12 years? +43.2 units of profit, 6.2% return.
When in doubt, trust Under on totals
In the last 13 years of the NHL playoffs, there were only three seasons in which Overs produced a profit.
Two of them, however, occurred in the last 3 years, +3 units in 2023, and +1.65 units in 2022. Otherwise, in the other 10 seasons, there have been a total of 404 Unders against 351 Overs. These 53.5% Under wagers have produced +22.5 units of profit, while Over wagers have netted a loss of -152.95 units.
“Last Game” systems
The “Zig Zag Theory” remains alive and well in the NHL playoffs over the last 13 seasons.
Teams that have lost in an NHL same-series game have responded by going 496-448 (52.5%) in the next game for +23.53 units, or a ROI of +2.5%. The loss associated with backing the opposite teams, or those that won the prior contest, has been -118.13 units, or -12.5%.
In those same 13 years, teams that lost their last game on the road bounce back well at a 237-209 SU (53.1%) rate for a return of +11.85 units and a ROI of 2.7%.
However, this angle struggled last year, losing almost half of its prior 12-year profits.
Another last game angle, teams that are coming off a win in a series as a road favorite have also struggled.
They went just 51-41 SU (55.4%) in the next contest, losing -21 units for a ROI of -22.8%!
Shutout losses in the NHL playoffs have had a tendency to “wake up” teams in their next game.
These teams are on a 39-24 SU (61.9%) run in the follow-up game over the last seven seasons, good for +19.2 units and an ROI of 30.5%!
The last three NHL playoff seasons have revealed a shift in how close and blowout losses affect teams in their follow-up games. Close losses have had a heartbreaking carryover effect.
Teams that lost by 1 or 2 goals have gone just 84-90 SU (48.3%) in the next contest, losing -15.05 units for bettors, an ROI of -8.6%.
By contrast, teams losing by 3+ goals have been able to easily flush the result and move on.
Those teams went 61-55 SU (52.6%) in the follow-up game, earning +10 units for backers, an ROI of +8.6%. A 17+% swing makes this concept worth considering.
Scoring a lot of goals but losing is a blessing in disguise waiting to happen.
Teams that have scored 4+ goals in a NHL playoff game but have still lost have bounced back incredibly well, going 35-15 SU (70%) for +20.6 units and a ROI of 41.2% since 2015.
Key regular season stats systems
Big scoring differential edges can prove impactful.
Teams that had worse than a -0.5 GPG scoring differential than their opponent in the regular season have been overwhelmed in the last five years of NHL playoffs, going 48-86 SU (35.8%) for -17.8 units, or a ROI of -13.2%. This is not where the upsets tend to come from. Keep that in mind as you consider the prospects for teams like Minnesota or Montreal this season, the league’s only two negative scoring differential teams in the playoffs.
Scoring 2.8 GPG in the regular season is a key number, but completely the opposite of what you would think in terms of playoff betting.
Teams that scored 2.8 GPG (230 goals total) or more in the regular season have gone just 854-864 SU (49.7%) for -129.1 units in the last 13 NHL playoff sessions, including 562-559 SU (50.1%) for -122.6 units and an ROI of -10.9% against teams that scored fewer than 2.8 GPG. At the same time, the teams that scored less than 2.8 GPG in that span produced +19.05 units of profit on a 284-274 SU (50.9%) record, a positive ROI of +3.4%. Moral of this story: it is not the powerful offenses that tend to win in the NHL playoffs; it is usually the best-performing defenses and goalies.
