NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Friday, December 27:
The NHL is back after its annual three-day Christmas break. I am keeping my unit size down for today and tomorrow as I am not sure if players and teams may need a few days to get their legs and hands going. We have some good matchups tonight that include a Detroit Red Wings team that hopes to get a new head coach bump with the firing of Derek Lalonde and the hiring of Todd McLellan. Enjoy the night on ice. Here are tonight’s NHL predictions.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-155, 6) at Detroit Red Wings
7 p.m. ET
Red Wings General Manager Steve Yzerman played the role of “The Grinch” on Thursday, firing head coach Derek Lalonde after two-plus disappointing seasons behind the bench. Lalonde finished seventh in the Atlantic Division in his first year and missed the playoffs last season, losing a tiebreaker to the Philadelphia Flyers. This season, the Red Wings have just 13 wins in 34 games and have lost nine of their last 12. Detroit will play seven of their next eight games on home ice.
“We have a bunch of guys who work hard. But we’re working hard and not accomplishing anything,” team captain Dylan Larkin said.
In comes former Red Wings assistant coach Todd McLellan, who still has one year remaining on his contract with the Los Angeles Kings. His biggest challenge is to find a way to get more consistency out of the offense that has scored a goal or less 11 times this season.
The Maple Leafs opened as a (-165) betting favorite. With the news of Lalonde out McLellan in as the new coach, bettors have jumped on Detroit, hoping they will get the new head coach “bump” as Toronto is now a (-155) road favorite. The total on this game is at six in most spots, but I did see that FanDuel is offering 5.5 (-140 to the Over). Five of the last 10 meetings have had a combined six goals or more, including their last meeting in Detroit (December 14), with Detroit coming out on top 4-2. Another aspect to targeting the full game Over 5.5 is that 12 of the 15 Maple Leafs road games have had a combined six goals or more.
The Leafs played their final two games heading into the break without Auston Matthews, who has been dealing with an upper-body injury. There is no timetable for his return. Former Leafs captain John Tavares has been pacing the offense with five goals and 11 points in the last seven games, while Mitch Marner has had an assist in six consecutive games.
A couple of other betting notes for this game tonight: The Red Wings were blanked in the final game before the holiday break. That triggered our systems play of a goal to be scored in the first 10 minutes as well as the first period Over 1.5 goals. I will tread lightly for the next couple of days with our systems plays just because I am not sure where these players are mentally and physically after a few days off.
NHL Predictions: Toronto Maple Leafs/Detroit Red Wings Over 5.5 (-140) – ½ unit
Toronto Maple Leafs/Detroit Red Wings Goal in 1st 10 minutes (-155) – ½ unit
Toronto Maple Leafs/Detroit Red Wings 1st period Over 1.5 goals (-135) – ½ unit
Dylan Larkin anytime goal (+235) – ½ unit
Lucas Raymond anytime goal (+235) – ½ unit
Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils (-125, 6)
7 p.m. ET
This is the front end of a home and home and back-to-back between these two Metro Division rivals. It is the third meeting between the two. Each team came away with road victories. Both the Canes and Devils are 4-1 on the front end of games on consecutive days and 1-4 on the second half of back-to-backs. The Devils full game Under the total has cashed in 10 straight games, and the first period Under 1.5 goals has cashed in seven straight. New Jersey was on quite a roll heading into the holiday break, winning five of six and their final two games by a combined score of 8-0 blanking the Penguins and Rangers. Tonight, the Devils have the opportunity to make it shutouts in three consecutive games for the first time in franchise history since 1997.
When looking at a potential money line play for today’s game, hold out until the starting goalies are confirmed. If both number one goalies (Pyotr Kochetkov and Jacob Markstrom) are getting the nod for the start, then I would simply lean on the first period Under 1.5 and full game Under 6. I would only play a “side” if one team goes with their backup goalie. If both backup goalies are starting, then this will be a “no play” for me on any of the totals previously mentioned.
Maybe the holiday break is just what the Canes’ leading scorer, Martin Necas, needed. He has gone eight games without a goal and four games without an assist. He still leads the team with 30 “helpers.”
Jack Hughes (1 goal, 4 assists) and Jespar Bratt (2 goals, 3 assists) have paced the Devils in the two games against Carolina this season, as well as leading the team in points and the top two in assists for New Jersey.
NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes/New Jersey Devils 1st Period Under 1.5 (-110) – ½ unit
Carolina Hurricanes/New Jersey Devils Under 6 (-120) – ½ unit
Martin Necas Over ½ assist (+110) – ½ unit
Jack Hughes Over ½ assist (-110) – ½ unit
Jespar Bratt Over ½ assist (+100) – ½ unit
Boston Bruins (-160, 6) at Columbus Blue Jackets
7 p.m. ET
This will be the first of two this weekend between the Bruins and Jackets, as they are one of four sets of home and home back-to-backs this weekend. The Jackets handed the B’s a 5-1 loss at the TD Garden Arena back in November. It was just their second win over Boston in the last 10 meetings. Since Joe Sacco has taken over behind the Boston bench, the Bruins have won 11 of 16 games. Playing games on consecutive days has not been kind to Columbus this season, who are 1-4 on the front end of back-to-backs and 0-5 on the back end. All five Columbus games in the first half of back-to-backs have had a combined seven goals or more.
When you examine just the first period of Columbus home games this season, 12 of the 17 games have gone Over the 1st period total of 1.5 goals. The Bruins went Over in six of the seven games in the opening 20 minutes on the road and 11 of 17 for the season.
Boston’s Brad Marchand hopes to continue a hot December, as he has scored seven of his 15 goals in the final month of 2024. One question surrounding the Bruins is the status of David Pastrnak, who suffered an upper-body injury in the Bruins’ win over Washington on Monday.
One player prop I am targeting from the Columbus side is forward Dimitri Voronkov. Voronkov plays on the top line and number one power play unit. He scored in the only meeting versus the Bruins earlier this season and now has two goals in three games against Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman.
NHL Predictions: Boston Bruins/Columbus Blue Jackets 1st period Over 1.5 (-135) – ½ unit
Boston Bruins/Columbus Blue Jackets Over 6 (-120) – ½ unit
Brad Marchand anytime goal (+190) – ¼ unit
Brad Marchand Over ½ assist (+126) – ¼ unit
Dmitri Voronkov anytime goal (+235) – ¼ unit
Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres (-180, 6)
7 p.m. ET
The Sabres put an end to their 13-game losing streak with a resounding 7-1 win over the Islanders in their final game before the Christmas break. Tonight, they face a Blackhawks team that has lost their last two overall and six of their last seven to the Sabres, including a 4-2 loss to Buffalo in October.
Early goals have been the norm in recent Sabres games as they are on a run of eight straight and 10 of 11 that have been either scored by Buffalo or the opposition in the first 10 minutes of the game. Both Chicago and Buffalo were playing in high-scoring games heading into the break, with Hawks games featuring six or more goals in six of their last nine. The Sabres have been slightly better with seven of nine having 6+ goals. Three of the last six and four of the last nine meetings have needed extra time to decide a winner.
It’s been a rough season for the Sabres’ Peyton Krebs, with just three goals and 10 points in 34 games, but he does have three goals in four games against Blackhawk’s expected starting goalie Petr Mrazek. If Mrazek gets the start today, then Krebs’ anytime goal is a “pizza money” play. Buffalo’s JJ Peterka has five points in five games versus the Hawks.
NHL Predictions: Chicago Blackhawks/Buffalo Sabres Regulation Draw (+340) – ¼ unit
Chicago Blackhawks/Buffalo Sabres Goal 1st 10 (-145) – ½ unit
Chicago Blackhawks/Buffalo Sabres Over 6 (-110) – ½ unit
Peyton Krebs anytime goal (+550) – ¼ unit
JJ Peterka Over ½ point (-135) – ½ unit
Nashville Predators (-130, 5.5) at St. Louis Blues
8 p.m. ET
The Nashville Predators come out of the Christman break on a modest two-game winning streak with wins over LA and Carolina. The Preds have also won three of their last four and four of six. Still, it may be too little too late for the Preds to get themselves into the playoff hunt. Nashville finds themselves eleven points out of a playoff spot entering action tonight. Nashville opened as a (-120) road favorite and have been bet up to (-130).
After winning five of their first seven under new head coach Jim Montgomery, the Blues have done just the opposite over the next seven-game stretch, winning just two games and dropping five. Even with their most recent struggles, the Blues are seven points up on the visiting Predators, are playing at home today and are still a home underdog. The Blues are 5-7 as a home dog this season.
The history between these two teams tells us that this game should go Over the total of 5.5 as 10 of the last 11 meetings have featured six goals or more. Nashville has won four straight over St. Louis. Do we trust what has gone on in the past between these two or what they are currently doing on the ice? The Blues have played six straight games going under the total (12-21-3 for the season). The Predators have also been an Under team this season (12-22-2) and have rotated going Over and Under the total in their last eight games. Their most recent game, a 5-2 win over Carolina, surpassing the game total of 6.5.
Both the Blues and Preds have played nine overtime games this season, and they have combined for 14 games ending with a final score of 3-2. Nashville has lost six overtime games this season by a 3-2 score.
Not only is this game Nashville versus St. Louis, but it is also the battle of the Schenn brothers, Luke (Nashville) and Brayden (St. Louis). With that in mind, I will look to Brayden as an anytime goal scorer for the Blues. He has eight goals in 15 games versus Predators starting goalie Juuse Saros. Two Nashville players that caught my eye for today are Jonathan Marchessault and Luke Evangelista. Marchesseault, who had just seven goals in his first 31 games, closed out the break with goals in four consecutive games (five in total). Evangelista has just four goals on the year, but two in his last five games, and he has enjoyed success against Blues goalie Jordan Binnington (two goals in three games).
One final betting note from this game. Both teams are receiving 50% of the bets (at the time of this writing), with the Predators getting 52% of the money. We have seen a “10 cent” jump in the line. Appears that more “Pro money” is coming in on Nashville.
NHL Predictions: Nashville Predators ML (-130) – 1 unit
Nashville Predators/St. Louis Blues correct score excluding OT (2-2) +950 – ¼ unit
Nashville Predators/St. Louis Blues Regulation Draw (+310) – ¼ unit
Jonathan Marchessault anytime goal (+185) – ¼ unit
Luke Evangelista anytime goal (+425) – ¼ unit
Brayden Schenn anytime goal (+380) – ¼ unit
Colorado Avalanche (-140, 6) at Utah HC
9:30 p.m. ET
This will be the third meeting between Avs and Utah HC, as the teams have split the season series to date, each winning on the road. Colorado entered the holiday break having won three straight and seven of their last nine. The Avs scored four or more goals in six of their seven wins while giving up two goals or less in each of the seven victories. One of the keys to the turnaround is the overhaul in goal. Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood have provided the Avs with goalies who can make a save. For whatever reason, Colorado has enjoyed a greater deal of success on the road than at home. The Avalanche are 10-1 as a road betting favorite and just 8-7 at home as a favorite.
Utah lost its final two games heading into the break, a pair of home losses to Anaheim and Dallas. Utah has just 5 wins in 15 home games.
Nathan MacKinnon has six goals in seven games against Utah HC goalie Karel Vejmelka.
NHL Predictions: Colorado Avalanche ML (-140) – ¼ unit
Colorado Avalanche TT Over 3.5 (+110) – ¼ unit
Nathan MacKinnon anytime goal (+120) – ½ unit
Vegas Golden Knights (-245, 6) at San Jose Sharks
10:30 p.m. ET
The Golden Knights came out of the holiday break as one of the hottest teams in the NHL. Vegas has won four straight and eight of nine, giving up two goals or less in all eight of their wins. Meanwhile, the Sharks have lost five consecutive games and eight of their last nine. During the five-game losing streak, San Jose had a third-period lead in four of the games. Now they face a Golden Knights team that beat them 7-3 in Vegas back in October. The Sharks have lost five straight, six of seven, and seven of the last 10 to Vegas.
The Sharks are on the front end of a back-to-back so it is likely that Alexandar Georgiev will be between the pipes for one of the two games this weekend. Daily readers of my NHL Predictions page will be familiar with this statistic. With Georgiev in goal, his teams (San Jose and Colorado) are a combined 1-17-3 on the first-period money line. If Georgiev starts tonight, then we have a play on Vegas first-period money line.
One other trend with the Sharks has been home games going Over the full game total. Seven of the last nine home games have had a combined seven goals or more, and all nine have had at least six goals.
NHL Predictions: Vegas Golden Knights TT Over 3.5 (-140) – 1 unit
Vegas Golden Knights 1st period – ½ goal (+115) – 3 units (If Georgiev is Sharks goalie)
Tomas Hertl anytime goal (+205) – ¼ unit
William Karlsson anytime goal (+235) – ¼ unit
Mark Stone anytime goal (+180) – ¼ unit
