NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Here are today’s NHL predictions and best bets.
Washington Capitals (22-16-6) at Chicago Blackhawks (18-18-7)
Capitals (-125) at Blackhawks (+105) – Total 5.5 (-130)
8 p.m. ET
It looks like all systems go for the return of Connor Bedard to the Hawks’ lineup tonight when they host the Washington Capitals. Bedard has been out for the last 12 games after injuring his shoulder in the December 12th loss to the St. Louis Blues. Chicago proceeded to lose the next five games and seven of eight, but has since rattled off four consecutive wins. Those four wins have come since Blackhawks head coach Jeff Blashill came out in defense and support of Bedard, who was left off Canada’s Olympic team roster.
These two teams met six days ago in Washington, with the Hawks coming away with a 3-2 shootout victory. I am not a big analytics fan when it comes to expected goals (bettors don’t cash in on expected goals the last time I checked), but in the game last week, the expected goals were just under seven. The history between these two teams has trended to the Over in the games played in Chicago, with six of the last seven games having a combined six goals or more (5,6,10,9,8,13,8). Seven of the last 10 Caps games have had a combined seven goals or more.
I also like the first period Over 1.5 goals. Hawks’ games have gone Over in the opening 20 minutes in seven straight, and the Capitals have gone Over in five of the last six, including the meeting in Chicago six days ago (1-1 after 20). I am also in on the Chicago team total Over 2.5 and 3 goals. I do believe Logan Thompson gets the start in goal for Washington. In his previous seven starts, the Caps have given up 4,3,4,5,3,7 and 5 goals.
I will also be on Bedard’s shots on goal prop of Over 2.5. I am a proponent of taking a player’s shots prop in his first game, as he is going to want to “feel the puck.” I would be careful with his teammate Ryan Greene, who has been putting up points (four of five) and cashing his shots on goal prop in four straight games. With Bedard’s return, his ice time will be reduced.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
1st period Over 1.5 (-130) – 1 unit
Over 5.5 (-130) – 1 unit
Chicago Blackhawks Team Total Over 2.5 (-140) – 1 unit
Chicago Blackhawks Team Total Over 3 (+100) – 1 unit
Connor Bedard Over 2.5 SOG (-145) – 1 unit
Los Angeles Kings (18-14-10) at Winnipeg Jets (15-22-5)
Kings (-130) at Jets (+110) – Total 5.5 (Over, -120)
8 p.m. ET
I can’t believe I am doing this. Maybe I have been spending too much time in the sun in Manhattan Beach, but I am betting on the Winnipeg Jets to end their 11-game losing streak tonight. The Kings are without Anze Kopitar, Trevor Moore, Joel Armia and Corey Perry for this game. The Jets have three former Kings players on their roster with Gabe Vilardi, Alex Iafallo and Tanner Pearson. They will have “money on the board.”
I understand the counter to this argument is that Los Angeles is not going to want to be the team that the Jets end their losing streak against. Winnipeg will likely have Eric Comrie in between the pipes and not Connor Hellebuyck. Comrie does have a 2-1-1 career record and 2.25 goals against average against the Kings but has struggled of late, losing four straight overall. Hellebuyck has been no great shakes either, losing each of his last 10 starts.
A couple of props for me in this contest. Vilardi has eight points in seven games against his former team. Mark Scheifele has points in four of his last five against the Kings. On the LA side, Andrei Kuzmenko, Kevin Fiala and Alex Turcotte have been the Kings’ best line. Fiala has been cashing his shots on goal prop and his points prop in each of the last four games.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Over 5.5 (-120) – 1 unit
Winnipeg Jets (+110) – .50 units
Scheifele point/Vilardi point/Fiala Over 2.5 shots on goal (+254) – 1 unit
