NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Friday, May 2:
Here are Friday’s NHL predictions.
Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues (-115, 5.5)
Game Six (Winnipeg leads series 3-2)
8 p.m. ET
The Jets opened as a small (-115) road favorite, and we have seen the line flip to (-115) to the hometown St. Louis Blues. Winnipeg won’t have their captain and playoff franchise leading scorer, Mark Scheifele for tonight’s Game Six. Scheifele left Game Five with an upper body injury and did not travel with the team.
All indications point to the return of forward Nikolaj Ehlers to the Jets’ lineup. Ehlers last played on April 12 and was injured in an on-ice collision with an official. He is expected to be on a line with Cole Perfetti and Adam Lowry.
For the most part, Winnipeg dominated play in their 5-3 victory Wednesday night in Game Five. Outside of the second Blues goal that was odorous, Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck was solid between the pipes. The problem for Hellebuyck is when he plays on the road, the goaltending position looks foreign to him. Hellebuyck has just one win in his last nine road playoff games. Over those nine games, he has given up three or more goals eight times, four or more goals seven times, and five or more five times.
I am all over the Blues team total at Over 2.5 goals. The first period Over has also been a money maker for us in this series, with all five games featuring two or more goals in the opening 20 minutes. The team that lost the previous game has scored the first goal of the game in three of the previous four situations along with scoring the first goal of the first period. In four of the five games we have seen both teams find the back of the net in the first period as well.
I will also continue to ride the trend of playing the third period pre-game to go Over two goals and then come back live with the Over 1.5 goals (in-game) when we have games involving a clinching scenario. In the eight clinching games in this year’s playoff, six times we have had an empty-net goal. Seven of those games we have had at least two goals scored in the third period.
I am going to play both teams to score an empty-net goal, as we are getting more than three to one on our bet, as opposed to getting around +115 for either team to score into a yawning cage. If we cash the empty netter playing both teams, we ensure ourselves a two-unit profit as opposed to one unit by playing the more conservative way.
I am also going to take a similar approach to playing both teams to cover the -1.5 goals. Favorites have covered the Puck Line in 18 of their 28 wins, and the Underdog has won by two goals or more in 12 of their 16 wins.
Game Six Predictions:
St. Louis Blues to score the first goal of the game in regulation (-120) – .50 units
St. Louis Blues to score the first goal of the 1st period (+140) -.20 units
St. Louis Blues/Winnipeg Jets 1st Period BTTS (+210) – .50 units
St. Louis Blues/Winnipeg Jets 1st Period Over 1.5 goals (+106) – .50 units
St. Louis Blues TT over 2.5 (-125) – .50 units
St. Louis Blues -1.5 goals (+225) – .20 units
Winnipeg Jets -1.5 goals (+240) – .20 units
St. Louis Blues empty-net goal (+350) – .20 units
Winnipeg Jets empty-net goal (+310) – .20 units
3rd Period Over 2 (+110) – .50 units
