Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars (-115, 6.5)
Dallas leads series 1-0
8 p.m. ET
Players and coaches will always stress the importance of playing for the full 60 minutes. For the Oilers, they learned their lesson in Game One. Edmonton dominated the first 40 minutes on Wednesday as they took a 3-1 lead into the third period, only to see the Dallas Stars put up five in the third period for a 6-3 win. Oilers captain Connor McDavid summed it up after the game. “Really good for 40 (minutes), and really bad for 20,” he deadpanned. “Where it got away from us, obviously, (was) the kill. A two-goal lead in the third, we take a couple of penalties, and we’ve got to find a way to get a kill. Giving up three is obviously not good enough.”
Momentum in the playoffs goes from shift to shift and not from game to game. That is the word from those who play the game. The Oilers clearly displayed that in Game Four against the Vegas Golden Knights one game after losing with less than a second to go in Game Three. With that in mind, I will be on Edmonton to score the first goal of the game. Teams coming off a loss in the playoffs scored first in 36 of the 59 games (36-23).
My approach for tonight’s game, when it comes to wagering on a “side,” will be to play both Edmonton and Dallas to win by two goals. This has been my approach for the last few weeks in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To date, 49 of the 73 playoff games this year have been decided by two goals or more. Of the 46 wins by the favorite, they have covered the puck line 32 times (32-14). The Underdog has covered the “reverse” puck line (-1.5 goals) in 17 of the 27 wins (17-10). If tonight’s game is decided by two goals, playing both teams to win by a two-goal margin guarantees you close to a one-unit profit.
On to my favorite player props. The Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has points in eight of his last 10 games (assists in 6 of 9) and had at least two shots on goal in nine of his last 10 contests. It’s a “heavy tax” for his Over 1.5 shots on goal (-210), but with his success rate, I am willing to pay the tax.
Mikael Granlund’s five goals in the postseason (tied for second on the team) only trails Mikko Rantanen (nine). He scored in Game One and was on the top power play unit. I am on Granlund for an anytime goal and a power play point. I also like his shots on goal prop of Over 1.5 and 2.5. Granlund has had two or more shots on goal in seven of his last nine games and three or more in three of the last four games.
Lastly, I will give you a couple of players from this series to win the Conn Smythe Trophy (Playoff MVP). If you like Dallas, I would sprinkle some money on Jake Oettinger (+850) and Mikael Granlund (70/1). Mikko Rantanen has been quiet since his streak of something like scoring or assisting on 12 consecutive goals. For Edmonton, McDavid (+550) and Draisaitl (15/1) are never a bad call. The dynamic duo are tied with 19 points. I would take Draisaitl over McDavid if I was voting, but both are worth a bet. You are going to get a far better price on the duo than wagering on the Oilers if they reach the Final.
Game Two Predictions:
Edmonton Oilers to score the first goal of the game (-110) – .50 units
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 1.5 shots on goal (-210) – 1 unit
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 2.5 shots on goal (+150) – .25 units
Ryan Nugent Hopkins Over ½ assist (+150) – .25 units
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins anytime goal (+300) – .10 units
Mikael Granlund Over 1.5 shots on goal (-105) – 1 unit
Mikael Granlund Over 2.5 shots on goal (+290) – .25 units
Mikael Granlund anytime goal (+390) – .10 units
Mikael Granlund power play point (+475) – .10 units
Miro Heiskanen Over ½ assist (+136) – .25 units
Leon Draisaitl to score 1st goal of game (+850) – .10 units
Connor McDavid to score 1st goal of game (+1000) – .10 units
Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals (+230) – .25 units
Dallas Stars – 1.5 goals (+198) – .25 units
