NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Friday, November 29:
I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. It was nice to sit back, watch some football and enjoy some time with family and friends. Black Friday in the NHL gives us 14 games with plenty of betting options. Over the past two seasons, road teams have dominated Black Friday by going 22-6, after home teams went 17-8 in the previous two seasons. I have targeted five games today, focusing mostly on various prop plays. I have also added a couple of player props separate from my game write-ups in what I call “Best of the Rest.” Enjoy the day on ice. Here are today’s NHL predictions.
Vancouver Canucks (-115, 5.5) at Buffalo Sabres
3:00 p.m. ET
This will be stop number four on a six-game roadie for the Vancouver Canucks. Vancouver’s seven-game win streak away from home ended on Wednesday with a 5-4 loss to Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh won for the first time in eight games as a home underdog. The Canucks not only lost the game but appeared to have lost defenseman Filip Hronek to an upper-body injury. Hronek was injured in the game’s final minute after taking a hard hit from Jack St. Ivany. The loss is significant for Vancouver as Hronek is not only the team’s leader in plus/minus, but he plays the second most minutes among Canucks defensemen. Hronek averages over 23 minutes a night, four minutes more than Tyler Myers, who ranks third in minutes for Vancouver blueliners.
The Buffalo Sabres returned home from sweeping the three California teams but they couldn’t find a way for any of their 39 shots on goal to beat Minnesota Wild goalie Filip Gustavsson in their 1-0 loss to Minnesota. The alarm bells should be going off in everyone’s head. We have a team being shut out in their previous game, and with that, we have our systems plays of goal in the first 10 minutes, 1st period Over 1.5 goals and the full game Over the total. I am also inclined to play the Sabres team total Over 3.5. The Sabres have scored four goals or more in eight of their 11 wins this season and 11 times overall. The Canucks have given up four goals or more in nine of their 10 losses. The Sabres Alex Tuch has 12 assists in 16 career games versus Vancouver.
NHL Predictions: Buffalo Sabres TT Over 3.5 (+165) – 1 unit
Vancouver Canucks/Buffalo Sabres 1st period Over 1.5 (-120) – 1 unit
Vancouver Canucks/Buffalo Sabres goal 1st 10 – Yes -130 – 1.5 units
Vancouver Canucks/Buffalo Sabres Over 6 (+105) – 1 unit
Alex Tuch Over ½ assist (+26) – 1 unit
New Jersey Devils (-190, 6) at Detroit Red Wings
3:00 p.m. ET
The Devils’ three-game win streak came to a halt on Wednesday as they were blanked by the new and improved St. Louis Blues, who are 2-0 under head coach Jim Montgomery. With New Jersey being shut out in its previous game, normally all of our system plays would be in effect (goal in first 10, 1st period Over, Game total Over). But in taking a closer look at the results following the previous three games that New Jersey has been blanked this season, the first period Over 1.5 has cashed only once, the full game has failed to cash twice and pushed on the total in the other, while a goal in the first 10 has cashed in all three games. The Devils have won the three previous games after being shut out by a combined score of 11-3 and covered the Puck Line in all three games. Eight of the 12 losses this season for Detroit have been by two or more goals.
This afternoon will be the second time this season and the second time in Detroit that these two teams will be getting together. The Red Wings won round one, 5-3, as a (+150) home underdog. It is the Red Wings only win this season over a team that currently holds a playoff spot. Heading into this season, the Devils had won four of the previous five games against Detroit.
NHL Predictions: New Jersey Devils -1.5 goals (+130) – 1 unit
New Jersey Devils/Detroit Red Wings goal in the first 10 (Yes) -135 – 1.5 units
New York Islanders at Washington Capitals (-135, 5.5)
3:00 p.m. ET
Washington Capitals goalie Charlie Lindgren scored his first career goal on Monday, but there was just one problem. He scored on his own net, giving Tampa a brief 4-3 lead. The Caps and Lindgren rebounded quickly, scoring the next two goals and knocked off the Lightning, 5-4. Washington won for the sixth time in nine games, and it marked the 13th time that the Caps scored four or more goals in a win. The Caps rallied from down 2-0 in the opening period. The two first-period goals mean that the first period Over 1.5 goals cashed for the 12th time in the last 13 Capitals games. Also, we had a goal in the first 10 minutes of the game. Nine of the last 13 Washington games have featured a quick strike goal.
As hot as the Capitals have been, the Islanders have been ice cold. New York has just two wins in their last nine games and outscored 10-5 in their last two games.
Both these teams are on the front end of a back-to-back. Washington will likely turn to Logan Thompson to start in goal against the Islanders. It looks like Ilya Sorokin will get the start for the Islanders.
As with all Islanders games, the regulation draw must be considered. New York has been involved in eight games that have needed extra time this season. Last season, one of the three meetings between the Islanders and Capitals went to overtime.
NHL Predictions: Washington Capitals TT Over 3.5 (+125) – 1 unit
NY Islanders/Washington Capitals 1st period Over 1.5 (-120) – 1.5 units
NY Islanders/Washington Capitals goal 1st 10 – Yes (-135) – 1 unit
NY Islanders/Washington Capitals Regulation Draw (+310) – ¼ unit
Calgary Flames at Columbus Blue Jackets (-110, 6.5)
3:00 p.m. ET
Emotions will be high this afternoon in Columbus when the Flames and Jackets meet for the first time since the tragic death of Johnny Gaudreau. “I’m just gonna try to get through the game — to go there will be hard,” Flames defenseman Rasmus Andersson said. “Seeing the banner (at Nationwide Arena featuring Gaudreau’s name and No. 13), that kind of stuff will be tough. There are probably going to be a lot of emotions, and rightfully so.” The two teams will meet again next Tuesday in Calgary, where the Gaudreau family is expected to be in attendance.
One of Gaudreau’s best friends when he played in Calgary was Sean Monahan who signed with Columbus in the offseason with the intent of being reunited with Gaudreau. This will be an especially tough day and game for Monahan, who recently shared his thoughts with Eric Francis from Sportsnet. “I still haven’t gotten over it. I don’t think I ever will,” said Monahan, staring blankly down at the dressing room floor. Ninety percent of the time, it doesn’t feel real. You lose your best friend, your teammate. It’s tough to comprehend.”
After dropping the first two games of their current eastern road trip, the Flames have just three wins in 11 games away from home, compared to nine wins in 12 home games. Even with the loss to the Canadiens on Wednesday, the Blue Jackets have won seven of their 11 games on home ice. Home ice victories include wins over Carolina, Toronto, Edmonton and Tampa. What is significant about their loss to the Canadiens on Wednesday is that teams are 6-1 in their next game after losing to Montreal. That next game is this afternoon against Calgary. Columbus has won three of their last four meetings against the Flames.
Overtime is always a possibility with the Flames, who have gone past 60 minutes nine times this season and three of their last five games. The Blue Jackets last three games have needed extra time to settle the outcome. Calgary opened as a (-120) road favorite but has since moved in the direction of Columbus with both sides (-110). As of 9:45 a.m. ET (according to our VSIN Betting Splits page), both teams were getting 50% of the bets, but the Jackets were taking in 63% of the money.
NHL Predictions: Columbus Blue Jackets ML (-110) – 1 unit
Sean Monahan anytime goal (+260) – 1 unit
Sean Monahan 3+ SOG (+125) – 1 unit
Sean Monahan over ½ assist (+140) – 1 unit
Regulation Draw (+310) – ¼ unit
Los Angeles Kings (-195, 5.5) at Anaheim Ducks
3:30 p.m. ET
With Darcy Kuemper still on injured reserve, the Kings on the front end of a back-to-back and Saturday being three games in four days, former University of Michigan goalie Eric Portillo will make his NHL debut today in Anaheim. Portillo was 4-2-0 in six starts this season with the Kings AHL team, the Ontario Reign.
Giving Portillo the start on the road at Anaheim makes a great deal of sense as opposed to Saturday at home to Ottawa. The Kings have dominated this matchup, winning nine of the last 10 and seven of those wins by at least two goals. LA has traded wins and losses the past six games and are seeking their fourth two-game win streak of the season. The Kings and San Jose Sharks are the only Pacific Division teams who have yet to win three consecutive games.
The Ducks have been playing much better hockey the past four weeks, winning four of their past six games, scoring a combined 18 goals in the four victories. Fast starts, whether it be by Anaheim or the opposition, have been a constant for November. Ten of the 11 games have featured two goals or more, allowing bettors to cash on the Over 1.5 goal prop. Eight of the 11 games have featured a goal in the first 10 minutes of the game.
The Kings Kevin Fiala has 17 goals in 26 games against the Ducks in his career, including a goal in their only meeting this season. Captain Anze Kopitar and his linemate, Adrian Kempe have also feasted on the Ducks. Kopitar has 88 points in 90 career games versus Anaheim, and Kempe has 30 points in 34 games.
NHL Predictions: LA Kings/Anaheim Ducks 1st period Over 1.5 goals (-120) – 1.5 units
LA Kings/Anaheim Ducks goal 1st 10 minutes – Yes (-135) – 1 unit
Anze Kopitar/Adrian Kempe Over ½ assist Parlay (-107) – 1 unit
Kevin Fiala anytime goal (+200) – ½ unitBest of the rest:
Steven Stamkos Over ½ assist (+195) – 1 unit
Macklin Celebrini 3 + SOG (-130) – 1 unit
Macklin Celebrini anytime goal (+185) – 1 unit
Tyler Seguin/Matt Duchene over ½ point parlay (+148) – 1 unit
