NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Monday, May 12
Here are today’s NHL predictions:
Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes (-275, 5.5)
Game Four: Carolina leads series 2-1
7 p.m. ET
This betting line is bonkers. I realize that the Hurricanes have been the dominant team in this series and have limited Washington to a goal or less in two of three games, but here we are in Game Four and Carolina only has one more victory in the series than the Capitals. At this price, it’s Capitals or pass when it comes to playing the money line. If you like Carolina, then you are better off playing the Washington team total Under 2 goals (available at BetMGM) or Under 2.5 goals, available everywhere.
Here is where some of you are going to say, JD, you are nuts. I call this a Josh Applebaum, Hazmat wager. During the regular season, I had a system play of a goal to be scored in the first ten minutes and the full game to go Over the total in the following game after a team was shut out. It had a great run up until the 4 Nations tournament, and then it hit the skids. But it has come back from the dead in the playoffs with the full game Overs now 4-0 (after the Stars’ 5-2 win yesterday), and the “GIFT” is 3-1. Also, the team that lost has also scored the first goal of the game in three of the four as well. Playing the team coming off a loss to score the first goal of the next game has also been a profitable trend, going 31-17. Three of the four regular-season meetings between Carolina and Washington had a combined six goals or more (9,6,4,6).
Alex Ovechkin is not only looking for his first goal of the series, but he has been held without a point. The Great 8 twice during the regular season went three games without a goal, but he was never held goalless in four consecutive games. After being held to one shot on goal in Game One, he has had seven shots on goal (4,3) in the last two games. His shot prop of Over 2.5 is pricey, but I am willing to invest.
The Canes have outshot Washington 89-56 and out-attempted Washington by a resounding 256-133. Many of those shots by the Hurricanes that didn’t make it to Capitals goalie Logan Thompson were blocked by his defenseman. I will be on a Capitals shot block parlay tonight as well. I will post some additional player points props later today.
Game Four Predictions:
Capitals score the first goal of the game (+145) – .25 units
Goal in the 1st 10 minutes/Yes (-144) – .25 units
Caps/Canes Over 5.5 (+100) – 1 unit
Alex Ovechkin anytime goal (+170) – .10 units
Alex Ovechkin Over 2.5 shots on goal (-210) – .50 units
Chychrun/Roy/Sandin parlay Over 1.5 blocks (+50) – 1 unit
Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers (-125, 6.5)
Game Four: Edmonton leads series 2-1
9:30 p.m. ET
This game opened at some spots with the Over/Under set at 7. Now, we are seeing 6.5 juiced to the Over (-135) across the board. For me, it is Over or pass as both teams’ offenses have been clicking, and with the goaltending on both sides being average, I will pay the tax and go Over the total once again.
With Edmonton losing Game Three, I will be on them to score the first goal of the game tonight. Teams coming off a loss are 31-17 to score the first goal of the next game. The first period Overs are 8-1 in Knights games in the playoffs, but at (-174) it’s too pricey for me, so I will parlay it with the alternate full game total of Over 5.5 and bring the “juice” down to a more reasonable number. I don’t see a way that this game finishes with less than six combined goals. With that being said, I am inclined to play two separate parlays, taking both teams to win, with the Over 5.5. Why not, with both parlays at “plus money.”
On to the player props. On the Vegas side, William Karlsson has points in all three games (two goals, two assists), and we are getting his points prop at plus money. Brayden McNabb has been a shot-blocking machine for Vegas, with three or more blocks in all three games of the series. He leads the Golden Knights in blocked shots and is eighth in the league in the playoffs. I will also parlay Zach Whitecloud (Vegas), along with Jake Walman and Darnell Nurse of the Oilers to each have two blocked shots.
The Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has nine points (six assists) in his last seven games. Corey Perry, coming off a two-goal game, continues to be a great goal prop.
Game Four Predictions:
Oilers to score the first goal of the game (-130) – .50 units
1st Period Over 1.5 goals/Over 5.5 goals (-120) – 1 unit
Vegas/Edmonton Over 6.5 (-135) – 1 unit
Vegas ML/Over 5.5 goals (+172) – .50 units
Oilers ML/Over 5.5 goals (+146) – .50 units
Corey Perry anytime goal (+270) – .10 units
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over ½ assist (+148) – .20 units
Brayden McNabb Over 2.5 blocked shots (-130) – .50 units
William Karlsson Over ½ point (+116) – .20 units
Walman/Nurse/Whitecloud Over 1.5 blocks parlay (+115) – .50 units
