Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers (-175, 5.5)
Florida leads series 3-0
8 p.m. ET
The Carolina Hurricanes find themselves in a must-win situation for the remainder of the Western Conference Final as they are down 3-0 to the Florida Panthers. The Hurricanes’ next win will snap a 15-game losing streak in the third round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Florida’s coach described the tone heading into Game Four tonight as can his team’s desire be greater than the Hurricanes’ desperation. Carolina head coach Rod Brind’Amour, clearly frustrated by his team’s overall effort, said (paraphrasing) our best players can’t be Jordan Staal and Jordan Martinook. Our best players need to give more.
From my perspective, Carolina’s best isn’t good enough to beat Florida’s best. The Hurricanes made a goalie change for Game Three, starting Pyotr Kochetkov and sitting Freddie Andersen, who gave up 11 goals through the first two rounds of the playoffs but was touched up for 10 goals in the first two games against Florida. But with the series on the line tonight, it’s back to Andersen for Game Four.
Short of being able to have both goalies at the same time to cover the entire net, Carolina’s bigger issue is being able to generate offense, having scored just four goals in the first three games of the series. I can’t make a case for betting on Carolina tonight, even betting them on the “reverse” puck line (-1.5) as I have been doing with underdogs of late in the playoffs.
Florida has been just so dominant in the playoffs. They have scored five goals or more in four consecutive playoff games and have scored six goals or more five times in this year’s postseason. Their (+28) goal differential is the best at this stage of the playoffs since the Rangers were a (+29) in 1994 heading into the Stanley Cup Final.
Eighteen different Panthers players scored a goal (tied with Edmonton for most players with a goal), 21 different players have a point, 10 different players have 10 or more points, all seven defensemen with a goal, and 10 different players have scored a game winning goal in their run to try and repeat as Stanley Cup Champions. So even without Sam Bennett (lower body injury), Niko Mikkola and AJ Greer both injured in game three against Carolina, Florida has the depth to overcome the injuries.
I will jump in on Florida at (-1.5) and (-2.5) tonight. I will go back to the well with Evan Rodrigues (for an assist), who is the Panthers’ points leader in the series (zero goals, six assists), and Jesper Boqvist (goal and an assist), who will stay on the top line with Sam Bennett still unavailable. Tonight is the first playoff game this season that a Boqvist assist prop is also available.
Game Four Predictions:
Florida Panthers (-1.5) goals (+148) – 1 unit
Florida Panthers (-2.5) goals (+285) – .25 units
Florida Panthers Over 3 (-135) – 2 units
Florida Panthers Over 3.5 (+130) – .50 units
Jesper Boqvist Over ½ assist (+280) – .15 units
Jesper Boqvist anytime goal (+420) – .15 units
Evan Rodrigues Over ½ assist (+170) – .20 units
Evan Rodrigues Over 1.5 points (+600) – .10 units
Sam Bennett anytime goal (+210) – .10 units
Carter Verhaeghe anytime goal (+210) – .10 units
Freddie Andersen Under 23.5 saves (-110) – .25 units
