NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Monday, May 5
Florida Panthers (-125, 5.5) at Toronto Maple Leafs
Series Price:
Florida Panthers (-184)
Toronto Maple Leafs +150
Game One
8 p.m. ET
Despite winning the Atlantic Division and having home ice advantage, the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves as small underdogs for Game One tonight against the Florida Panthers and a heavy underdog for the best-of-seven series versus the defending Stanley Cup Champions.
The Maple Leafs were pushed hard by the Ottawa Senators in round one. It was only the second time in the last 20 years the Maple Leafs won a playoff round. Toronto’s last playoff series win came in the 2022-23 Stanley Cup Playoffs when they defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning, only to lose to the Florida Panthers in round two.
There are eight players that remain from the Maple Leafs roster and ten players from the Florida roster that will meet when the puck drops for Game One tonight. In addition, the Maple Leafs’ Oliver Ekman-Larsson, goalie, Anthony Stolarz and forward Steven Lorentz were all members of Florida’s Stanley Cup-winning team last season. The Panthers enter this series after dispatching the Tampa Bay Lightning in five games, limiting Tampa to just 12 goals. Florida will begin this series, minus defenseman Aaron Ekblad, who is serving the final game of a two-game suspension for his illegal hit on Tampa’s Brandon Hagel.
This will be the fifth time that former Boston Bruin and now Florida Panthers forward Brad Marchand will be facing the Maple Leafs in the playoffs. Marchand is a perfect 4-0 in the postseason against Toronto. His 29 points in the playoffs against the Leafs is the sixth most by any player. He is just three points away from climbing to fourth on the ladder. Carter Verhaeghe, originally drafted by Toronto, scored three goals, including a game winner when these two teams met in the 2022-23 playoffs. Matthew Tkachuk had five assists in that series. Tkachuk is one of five Florida players who had five points in their opening-round series against the Lightning. Sam Reinhart led the way with six points (two goals, four assists). Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk led the team in goals with three.
To no surprise, the Maple Leafs’ core four (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander) were the team’s top four scoring leaders in round one. William Nylander leads the way with nine points (three goals, six assists). The Maple Leafs are deeper from top to bottom and have become a more composed team under new head coach Craig Berube, as compared to previous years in the playoffs.
For me, the big question surrounding the Maple Leafs is whether Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner can raise the level of their game against a Florida team that will look to extract a pound of flesh every time they touch the puck. One Maple Leafs player that I have zero concerns about is Matthew Knies, who plays alongside Matthews and Marner on the top line as well as the number one power play. I gave out Knies to score three or more goals in round one against Ottawa, and he did not disappoint as he scored three goals. The rugged Toronto forward is built for playoff hockey, and I will target him to score an anytime goal each game as well. I’m playing Knies to score at least three goals in the series. One final note for game one. Toronto’s Mitch Marner and his wife had a baby over the weekend. The baby bump goal is in play for tonight.
Game One Predictions:
Florida Panthers in regulation +120 – 1 unit
Mitch Marner anytime goal +260 – .10 units
Matthew Knies anytime goal +320 – .10 units
Sam Bennett anytime goal +300 – .10 units
Carter Verhaeghe anytime goal +280 – .10 units
Series Predictions:
Matthew Knies to score 2 or more goals +100 – .25 units
Matthew Knies to score 3 or more goals +340 – .10 units
Sam Bennett to score 2 or more goals (-135) – .25 units
Sam Bennett to score 3 or more goals +240 – .25 units
Carter Verhaeghe to score 2 or more goals (-115) – .25 units
Florida Panthers -1.5 games (+110) – .50 units
I will break down each series in depth on their opening night. For now, a quick thought on the other three Stanley Cup Playoff series.
Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals
Series Price:
Carolina Hurricanes (-165)
Washington Capitals (+135)
Series starts: Tuesday, May 6
These two teams split their four-game series in the regular season, with each team defending their home ice. This will be a step up in opponent for both teams from their opening round matchup. The Capitals wore down a smaller Montreal Canadiens team. The Hurricanes were too much for a New Jersey team missing their best forward in Jack Hughes and had three of their top six defenseman who couldn’t finish the series due to injury. Washington gets the check mark in goal as Logan Thompson is better than both Freddie Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov. I expect a long series and will likely play it to go six and seven games and take a small profit.
Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights
Series Price:
Edmonton Oilers (-110)
Vegas Golden Knights (-110)
Series starts: Tuesday, May 6
Both these teams were pushed in round one and made the necessary adjustments to advance to the second round. My concern with the Oilers is that I don’t trust their goaltending with Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner. With their best defenseman, Mattias Ekholm, likely still out for this series, it will be too much to overcome. Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy made a big adjustment in the series against Minnesota in Games Five and Six, when he put together a line of Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and William Karlsson. The trio has the skill set not only to provide offense but to shut down the opposition’s best forwards. They will get the task of matching up against Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who were practicing together alongside Corey Perry, forming the number one line for Edmonton.
I like Vegas on the series spread at -1.5 games at +196
Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets
Series Price:
Dallas Stars (-166)
Winnipeg Jets (-140)
Series starts: Wednesday, May 7
It looks like the Dallas Stars will get a big boost for this series with the return of both defenseman Miro Heiskanen and forward Jason Robertson. The Jets, on the other hand, could still be without forward Mark Scheifele and defenseman Josh Morrissey. Scheifele missed the last two games of the opening round, and Morrissey was injured in the first period of the Game Seven win over St. Louis. The Stars have a history of not winning opening-round games, but with the Jets potentially being without key players, that could change. I like Dallas to win the series, and it goes no more than six games. I also like the Stars to score at least three goals each game and will target their team total when I can get a decent price on Over 2.5 goals.
I will play for the series to go five games +260 and six games +195.
