NHL Predictions – Monday, October 14:
The opening week of the NHL season has seen five of the teams with the shortest odds on the board (Edmonton, Florida, Colorado, Nashville and Vancouver) to win the Stanley Cup, have just one combined win to start the season. That win came on opening night when the Florida Panthers defeated the Boston Bruins. Of the other four teams, only the Vancouver Canucks have come away with a pair of “loser” points (an overtime and a shootout loss).
With the struggles of the expected top teams in the NHL, wagering on Underdogs in the opening week was very profitable. Favorites (-175+) to start the season are 9-8, but a $100 bettor would (-10.3) units to start the season. If you were to just play favorites (-200+), you would be 5-5 to start the season but (-8.6) units.
So why the rocky start for what are supposed to be the top Cup contenders? In the case of the Oilers, they look like a team that is still in shock from losing Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. The Florida Panthers, the team with the only win of the group, are coming off back-to-back losses, and in fairness to them, their most recent loss was without two of their stars, Matthew Tkachuk and Sasha Barkov. Barkov will be out for two to three weeks with a lower-body injury. Tkachuk will return today when Florida travels to Boston.
The Colorado Avalanche can’t get a save from Alexandar Georgiev, who has given up eight goals on 25 shots and has been pulled from both games. The Vancouver Canucks have nine new players on their roster from last season and are without starting goalie Thatcher Demko to start the season, and Nashville hasn’t looked bad in their two losses. They were a goalpost away from forcing overtime in their opener against the Dallas Stars, and they got “goalied” by Cam Talbot of the Detroit Red Wings on Saturday as he stopped all 42 shots that came his way. I expect market correction as we start the second week of the season.
Florida at Boston (-148, 5.5)
1 p.m. ET
There is no question that payback is on the minds of the Boston Bruins, who were dominated by the Panthers (6-4) on opening night, not only on the scoresheet but also physically pushed around. Two things are different from when they met on October 8. It will be Jeremy Swayman in goal for Boston and not Joonas Korpisalo. Swayman had signed a contract just days prior to the start of the season, and it would not have been fair to Korpisalo, who had gone through an entire training camp, not to get the start, and Swayman was simply not ready. From Florida’s perspective, they will be without their number one center, Sasha Barkov, not just for today’s contest but for the next two to three weeks (lower-body injury).
The Bruins opened as a (-125) home favorite, and we are seeing the line get steamed up to (-148) as the B’s are getting 68% of the bets and 74% of the money. I don’t have the numbers handy, but Boston has thrived in these afternoon contests.
Late breaking news: Matthew Tkachuk is also out for today’s game
NHL Predictions: Boston Bruins ML (-148) – 1unit
Utah HC at New Jersey Devils (-162, 6.5)
The Utah HC have been one of the great stories from the first week of the NHL season as they have opened with three consecutive wins. They are coming off a pair of overtime wins against the Islanders and Rangers an, this afternoon, get another tough test on one of the Stanley Cup favorites when they play the Devils. Utah HC has scored 16 goals in their three games (tied with Calgary for most in the NHL), led by Dylan Guenther, whose five goals lead the league in that category. All three Utah HC games have gone over the total.
The Devils are coming off a 5-3 win at Washington on Saturday night and improved to (3-1) to start the season. After giving up just one goal in each of their wins versus Buffalo to start the season, New Jersey has been touched for seven goals against (a loss and a win) in their last two games.
Utah’s last two wins have been coin-flip games. Any game going to overtime or a shootout falls into that category. I don’t see this game getting to overtime, and in talking with people who cover the Utah HC, the feeling is they suffer their first loss. One thing to note about betting on the Devils. When they win, they score four or more goals. They have scored at least four goals in two of their three wins this season, and in the two previous seasons, they have scored 4+ goals in 70 of their 90 wins.
NHL Predictions: New Jersey Devils ML (-162) – 1 unit
New Jersey Devils TT over 3.5 (-135) – 1 unit
New Jersey Devils/Utah HC Over 6.5 (-130) – 1 unit
Detroit Red Wings at NY Rangers (-225, 6.5)
7:00 p.m. ET
The Red Wings come into MSG fresh off a 3-0 blanking of the Nashville Predators as Cam Talbot turned back all 42 shots that came his way. It was a far better result than their game to start the season when Pittsburgh found the back of the net six times. Tonight, they will face the Rangers, coming off a 6-5 overtime loss at home. Goalie Igor Shesterkin surrendered all six goals, and maybe he should rethink turning down the reported eight-year, $88 million offer. Detroit might be just what the Blueshirts need to get back to the winning ways. New York has won three straight, four of five, and six of the last eight meetings between the two teams and have scored four or more goals in five of their last six wins versus Detroit. Scoring four or more goals in victories is commonplace for the Rangers. Over the past two seasons, the Rangers have scored four or more goals in 72 of their 102 wins. This season, the Rangers put up a six spot in blanking the Pittsburgh Penguins and managed five goals in their loss to Utah HC.
NHL Predictions: NY Rangers TT over 3.5 (-135) – 1 unit
