NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Saturday, April 5:
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Carolina Hurricanes (-245, 5.5) at Boston Bruins
7 p.m. ET
This is a game that I will only attack from a prop perspective. The Bruins have lost 10 straight, sit in last place in the Atlantic Division and 29th overall in the standings. The Carolina Hurricanes are locked in second place in the Metropolitan Division. Outside of avoiding bad habits with the Stanley Cup playoffs starting two weeks from today, they have very little to play for.
One live trend that I will be on is the second period Over 1.5 goals. The Canes have cashed this prop in 10 of their last 11 games, and the Bruins are on a 9-2 run. Currently, the price of the second period Over 1.5 at (-166). This is a one unit play for me that I tend to play a half-unit “pre-flop” and hope to get a better number live if we don’t get an early goal in the period.
There are a couple of Hurricanes player props that I have in my portfolio for today. I am going to parlay Taylor Hall (eight points in last 10) and Seth Jarvis (nine points in his last six games) to each pick up at least one point today. Jackson Blake has goals in back-to-back games and three of his last four games (four total). Logan Stankoven has scored goals in two of his last three games and scored a pair of goals in two games against Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman.
NHL Predictions: 2nd Period Over 1.5 (-166) – 1 unit
Taylor Hall/Seth Jarvis Over ½ point parlay +145 – .20 units
Jackson Blake anytime goal +260 – .10 units
Logan Stankoven anytime goal +270 – .10 units
Tampa Bay Lightning (-205, 6.5) at Buffalo Sabres
7 p.m. ET
It’s so typical of the Buffalo Sabres to get on a roll once they have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Sabres have won five of their last six games overall and four straight at home. That includes wins over Edmonton, Vegas and Florida. Veteran goalie James Reimer is expected to start for the third consecutive game and for the fifth time in the last six games. Reimer has won five straight. Tampa is coming off a 2-1 loss at Ottawa, snapping a four-game win streak despite outshooting the Sens, 32-19, as Ottawa goalie Linus Ullmark had one of his best games of the season.
The first period Over 1.5 goals has cashed in the last five Sabres games and eight of the last 11, while Tampa is on a 6-1 run. Buffalo is also on a second period 13-2 run to the second period Over 1.5 goals. I will look to target this prop in-game as the line is currently (-200). I do have a Cheesecake Factory list of player props on both sides, all with plus prices. Nikita Kucherov has had two or more assists in four of his last five games, while Brandon Hagel has an assist in six of his last eight games. Jake Guentzel had a hat trick in the lone meeting between the two teams this season and found the back of the net in three of the last four Tampa games. Defenseman JJ Moser, who plays alongside Victor Hedman, has two goals in two games against James Reimer.
The Sabres’ Tage Thompson has five goals in his last five games, to go along with five goals in five games against Tampa goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. He is one shy of his second career 40-goal season in the NHL. Alex Tuch has goals in four straight and five of his last six games. Ryan McLeod (five points in the last two games) and JJ Peterka (points in seven of his last eight games) make a great parlay piece.
NHL Predictions: 1st period Over 1.5 (-150) – ½ unit
Nikita Kucherov Over 1.5 assists (+215) – .10 units
Jake Guentzel anytime goal (+130) – .10 units
Brandon Hagel Over ½ assist (+110) – .10 units
JJ Moser anytime goal (+1200) – .10 units
JJ Peterka/Ryan McLeod Over ½ point parlay (+211) – .10 units
Tage Thompson anytime goal (+180) – .10 units
Alex Tuch anytime goal (+230) – .10 units
Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs (-205, 6.5)
7 p.m. ET
The Blue Jackets are coming off a disappointing 7-3 loss at home to Colorado on Thursday. The Jackets hosted an Avalanche team on the back end of a back-to-back. Because of bad weather in Chicago, where Colorado played the night before, the Avs did not arrive in Columbus until about seven hours before game time. The Jackets are four points back of the Canadiens for the second and final wild card spot and have played one fewer game than Montreal. The Canadiens currently have the tiebreaker (regulation wins, 26 to 24) over Columbus. The Jackets would need to finish with more points than Montreal to make the playoffs. On paper, tonight is a good spot for the Jackets as they have already defeated the Leafs in both meetings this season, outscoring Toronto, 11-3. The Maple Leafs are in a race to secure top spot in the Atlantic Division. They have a three-point lead over the Tampa Bay Lightning. Toronto is 15-8 on two or more days rest this season and have won five of their last seven in this spot.
The Columbus games are on a 6-0 run to the first period Over 1.5 goals. Maple Leafs games are on a 15-1 run to the second period Over 1.5 goals. I will play the second period Over 1.5 goals, “live” because the current price (-205) has no value prior to puck drop. There are Jackets player props that do offer a great deal of value. Adam Fantilli, who grew up just outside Toronto, has scored three goals in the two previous meetings this season. Luke Kunin has four goals in seven games against Leafs starting goalie Anthony Stolarz. Mathieu Olivier has also found the back of the net twice against Toronto this season. Former Maple Leaf James Van Riemsdyk has a pair of goals this season against the Leafs. He joins Adam Fantilli and Boone Jenner on the second line, and at (+500), it’s too good a price to pass up.
For Toronto, we will continue to ride the hot stick of John Tavares, who has six goals in his last seven games. Mitch Marner averages over a point a game in his career versus Columbus, while Matthew Knies has six points in his last five games.
NHL Predictions: Jackets/Leafs 1st period Over 1.5 (-155) – ½ unit
Adam Fantilli anytime goal (+250) – .10 units
Mathieu Olivier anytime goal (+500) – .10 units
Luke Kunin anytime goal (+900) – .10 units
Boone Jenner anytime goal (+270) – .10 units
James Van Riemsdyk (+500) – .10 units
John Tavares anytime goal (+155) – .10 units
Mitch Marner/Matthew Knies Over ½ assist parlay (+248) – .10 units
Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens (-170, 5.5)
7 p.m. ET
There is no better place to be on a Saturday night in Montreal than the Bell Centre to take in a Montreal Canadiens game. The Habs currently sit in the second wild card spot with the Rangers, Blue Jackets, Red Wings and Islanders all within four points of the Canadiens. The Flyers beat the Canadiens 6-4 ten days ago in Philadelphia in their first game under new head coach, Brad Shaw. Both the Flyers and Canadiens are riding three-game winning streaks. Montreal has scored four or more goals in both meetings this season as well as the last four meetings between the two teams. The first period Over 1.5 goals has cashed in 10 of the last 12 Montreal games and five of the last six Flyers games.
There are some good player props to attack in this game. Montreal’s Juraj Slafkovsky has three goals in four games against Flyers goalie Samuel Ersson. Lane Hutson and Nick Suzuki continue to be point machines, and we can get even money if you parlay them to get a point. Philadelphia rookie Matvei Mitchkov is playing like he got a get out of jail free card since the firing of John Tortorella with 11 points in his last six games, including four multi-point games. Travis Konecny has a three-game assist streak (five assists), and I will take a shot with former Montreal Canadien, Ryan Poehling to score. He does have a goal against Montreal goalie Samuel Montembeault.
NHL Predictions: 1st period Over 1.5 (-130) – 1 unit
Canadiens TT over 3.5 (+106) – 1 unit
Ryan Poehling anytime goal (+500) – .10 units
Matvei Michkov anytime goal (+230) – .10 units
Matvei Michkov Over 1.5 pts (+370) – .10 units
Travis Konecny Over ½ assist (+138) – .10 assist
Juraj Slafkovsky anytime goal (+240) – .10 units
Lane Hutson assist/Nick Suzuki point parlay (+100) – .10 units
