NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Saturday, December 7:
We have 11 games on the card, and two are already in action with a third dropping the puck at 4:00 p.m. ET, still leaving us with eight games to dissect. Looking to build off a very profitable Thursday (+8.36 units), I continue to do a deeper dive into all the numbers. There are some great trends that we hope to cash on as well as one of those Josh Applebaum “Hazmat” plays in Ottawa. Enjoy the day and night on ice. Here are today’s NHL predictions.
Carolina Hurricanes (-198, 6) at NY Islanders
5:00 p.m. ET
The Hurricanes returned to their winning ways, snapping a three-game losing streak on Thursday with a 5-3 victory over Colorado. Carolina has scored 4+ goals in 16 of their 17 wins this season. Fast starts have been a trademark for the Hurricanes. Canes games have featured a goal in the opening 10 minutes in 14 of their last 16 games, and the first period Over has hit in eight of the last 10 games. With Pyotr Kochetkov still out, there is some talk that recently recalled Dustin Tokarski could get the start for Carolina.
The Islanders are coming off a 5-2 loss to Seattle on Thursday and were booed off the ice by their fans. The Isles have lost 10 of their last 13 games and have given up 4+ goals in four of their last six games. With any Islanders game, the regulation draw is always in play.
NHL Predictions: Carolina TT over 3.5 – 2 units
Carolina Hurricanes /NY Islanders goal in the 1st 10 – Yes (-140) – 1 unit
Carolina Hurricanes/NY Islanders 1st period Over 1.5 (-130) – 1 unit
Carolina Hurricanes/NY Islanders Regulation Draw (+320) – ¼ unit
Toronto Maple Leafs (-160, 6) at Pittsburgh Penguins
7:00 p.m ET
Both the Maple Leafs and Penguins will be on the second half of a back-to-back tonight, and both are coming off losses. For the visiting Maple Leafs, it was just their fourth loss in their past 14 games. Toronto has had one losing streak of two games and another of three games, but when following up a loss with a win they have scored 4, 5, 6, 4, 4, and 5 goals. For their part, Pittsburgh has given up four goals or more in 15 of their 17 losses this season.
The Pens are 4-2 on the second half of back-to-backs this season, and the teams have combined for six goals in all six games. Five of the games have featured seven goals or more. Three of Toronto’s five games on the back end of back-to-backs have had a combined six goals or more. In the three games where at least six goals were scored, the Maple Leafs won all three games and scored four goals in each victory.
Toronto has won three straight, five of six, and six of the last 10 meetings over Pittsburgh. In five of the six wins, the Leafs have scored four goals or more. From our good buddy @psuotto, the Leafs have cashed the first-period Under in three straight and 14 of the last 16 games, but the two losses were on the second half of back-to-backs. For the season, Toronto is 4-1 to the Over in the first period (1.5 goals). The Penguins have also been profitable, cashing the first period Over (1.5 goals) with a record of 4-2.
NHL Predictions: Toronto Maple Leafs TT over 3.5 (+100) – 1 unit
Toronto Maple Leafs/Pittsburgh Penguins 1st period Over 1.5 (-155) – 1 unit
Toronto Maple Leafs/Pittsburgh Penguins Over 6 (-115) – 1 unit
Geno Malkin Over ½ assist (+135) – ½ unit
Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators (-120, 5.5)
7:00 p.m. ET
The Nashville Predators have lost six straight, 10 of 12 and have scored two goals or less in all 10 losses. Yet somehow, the line for tonight’s game versus the Ottawa Senators is moving in the direction of the Predators, who opened as a (+110) underdog and are now sitting at (+100). Don’t bettors know that Nashville is 0-7 as a road underdog? Maybe driving the line to Nashville is a trend that I have been highlighting for the past month. The Preds are coming off a 3-0 loss to Montreal in their previous game. Teams are 7-2 in their next game after losing to the Canadiens.
With Nashville being blanked in their previous game, the systems play of goal in the first 10 minutes (35-15) and first period Over 1.5 (32-17) are in effect. This will be the fifth time Nashville will be in this scenario. They cashed the goal in the first 10 prop in all four games and cashed the first-period Over 1.5 in three of the four games.
From the world of crazy stats, Nashville has lost six overtime games this season which all ended, 3-2. Hopefully, they can be on the right side of that score tonight.
NHL Predictions: Nashville Predators ML (+100) – 1 unit
Nashville Predators/Ottawa Senators Goal in the 1st 10 – Yes (-135) – 1 unit
Nashville Predators/Ottawa Senators 1st period Over 1.5 (-125) – 1 unit
Nashville Predators/Ottawa Senators Regulation Draw (+310) – ¼ unit
Washington Capitals (-148, 6) at Montreal Canadiens
7:00 p.m. ET
The Washington Capitals have been road warriors this season. Only the Minnesota Wild (11) have more wins away from home than the Caps who have 10. Washington won their franchise-best eighth consecutive road game on Friday, knocking off the Maple Leafs 3-1.
Washington has won the last two meetings over the Canadiens, including a 6-3 win this season on Halloween night in D.C. That game was proof positive that you are never out of an Over. After a scoreless first period, the game was tied at three after 40 minutes before Washington scored the final three goals in a 6-3 win. The Over has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings. The Caps have won seven of the last 10 and scored 4+ goals in six of the seven wins over Montreal. Washington has scored four or more goals in 15 of their 17 wins this season. The Caps have also been a strong first-period team on the road, trailing only once in 12 games (6-1-5).
The Canadiens are coming off back-to-back wins for the third time this season and are seeking their first three-game win streak. The Habs have been held to three goals or less in eight of their last 10 games and seven of their last 10 versus Washington. I reference this statistic because if the Over is going to cash, then we need at least four goals from Washington tonight. I will go back to the well with the Lane Hutson assist prop. Hutson is tied for the team lead in assists (17), and at plus money on the prop, it’s an auto play.
NHL Predictions: Washington Capitals 1st period ML (-135) – 1 unit
Washington Capitals TT Over 3.5 (+115) – 1 unit
Lane Hutson Over ½ assist (+140) – 1 unit
Colorado Avalanche (-220, 6.5) at Detroit Red Wings
7:00 p.m. ET
Two teams face off in Detroit today, and both have found wins hard to come by. The Avalanche have lost three of their last four, and Detroit has lost four straight, all by one goal, including their most recent setback, 2-1 at Ottawa with Josh Norris scoring the game-winner with less than a minute to play.
Detroit could be just what Colorado needs to get back into the win column having won nine of the last 10 meetings between the two teams and having scored 4+ goals in seven of the nine wins.
The first periods this season have been horrible for the Avalanche. Colorado is on an 0-10-4 run in the opening 20, and they are 0-14-2 with Alexander Georgiev (unconfirmed starter) in net. The goal in the first 10 minutes of Avs games has also been very profitable of late cashing in 13 of their last 15 games. Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen has 16 assists in 13 career games against the Red Wings.
NHL Predictions: Detroit Red Wings 1st period ML (+135)
Colorado Avalanche/Detroit Red Wings goal in 1st 10 (-160) – 1 unit
Mikko Rantanen over ½ assist (-140) – 1 unit
Best of the restSan Jose Sharks 1st period Over ½ goal (-115) – 1 unit
Minnesota Wild TT Over 2.5 (-110) – 1 unit
St. Louis Blues TT Over 2.5 (+105) – 1 unit
