NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Saturday, January 18:
Here are today’s NHL predictions:
Anaheim Ducks at Florida Panthers (-380, 6)
6 p.m. ET
The Ducks are making their final stop on a six-game, nine-day road trip tonight in Sunrise as they take on the Florida Panthers. Anaheim has lost back-to-back and five of their last six games. Two of their last three and three of their last six have needed extra time to determine the winner. Florida has gone past 60 minutes and two of their last four games. Overtime and high-scoring games have also been a theme of Ducks and Panthers games in Florida, with the last four contests decided by three-on-three hockey and seven goals or more scored in three of the four games. Though 5.5 is available at various for the full game total, it’s juiced at (-140), and that’s too rich for my blood. I am recommending playing the total at six.
Anaheim is (4-4) in its last eight games as a dog of (+200) and higher. Florida is (5-3) this season as a favorite of (-200+). The Ducks may just want to get home with this being the final game of a long road trip, but for me, Anaheim is worth a “pizza money” bet on the Money Line.
I don’t have confirmation yet on starting goalies but if Florida goes with Spencer Knight, a Ryan Strome anytime goal is on my bingo card. Strome has two goals in three games against Florida goalie Spencer Knight. Fan Duel has the best price for a Strome anytime goal.
NHL Predictions: Ryan Strome anytime goal (+500) – ¼ unit
Anaheim Ducks ML (+300) – ¼ unit
Anaheim Ducks +1.5 (+130) – ¼ unit
Anaheim Ducks/Florida Panthers Over 6 (-110) – ¼ unit
Toronto Maple Leafs (-140, 6) at Montreal Canadiens
7 p.m. ET
Toronto opened as a (-160) road favorite. Bettors are jumping all over the red-hot Canadiens, who have won 11 of their last 14 games, driving this line down to (-140). The Habs are getting 35% of the bets and 63% of the money, according to our VSIN Betting Splits page. The Canadiens have won six of the last eight meetings between the two in Montreal.
Early goals have been a theme of recent Maple Leafs games, with a goal being scored in the first 10 minutes in seven consecutive games and 15 of the last 18. When examining the total for tonight’s contest, I am seeing both 5.5 and 6. If you like the Over then take the 5.5. If you lean to the Under as I do, then you want to grab the 6. Both meetings this season have gone Under the total (4-1, 1-0). Toronto had been a better Over team on the road until recently as three of their last four road games have gone Under the total, and six of their last nine overall have had a combined five goals or less. Something that caught my eye regarding Leafs games pertaining to the total is that when you look back at their last 10 games, they have played One Over, then two games going Under the total, a pattern that has repeated itself three times. Toronto’s most recent game, a 4-3 overtime win versus New Jersey went Over the total. If the pattern continues, it’s one more reason to play the Under. Montreal games have gone Under the total in four of their last six games.
Joseph Woll is the expected starting goaltender for the Maple Leafs. If the Canadiens stick with their goalies not starting consecutive games, then Samuel Montembeault will get the start for Montreal. Montembeault was brilliant in the first meeting between the two teams in the Habs opening game, stopping all 48 shots in a 1-0 win.
When it comes to player props, Montreal rookie phenom Lane Hutson has recorded at least one assist (nine total) in the last six games. Patrik Laine has feasted on the Maple Leafs in his career, with 10 goals in 13 career games against Toronto. Cole Caufield has points in 13 of his last 16 games and 10 goals in 14 games against the Canadiens. His linemate Nick Suzuki has points in eight of his last nine games and 21 points (15 assists) in 26 games versus the Maple Leafs. Toronto’s Auston Matthews has goals in back-to-back games (3 total), along with 27 goals in 35 games against the Habs.
NHL Predictions: Toronto Maple Leafs/Montreal Canadiens Under 6 (-115) – 1 unit
Lane Hutson Over ½ assist (+110) – ¼ unit
Nick Suzuki Over ½ assist (+110) – ¼ unit
Auston Matthews anytime goal (-105) – ¼ unit
Cole Caufield anytime goal (+170) – ¼ unit
Patrik Laine anytime goal (+240) – ¼ unit
Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning (-210, 6)
7 p.m. ET
This is a tricky game to bet on today. There are a lot of conflicting trends. Tonight is the front end of a back-to-back for Detroit. The Red Wings are (0-8) this season combined when playing games on consecutive days, meaning that they have lost both the front end and back end of the back of all eight games in this spot. But this is a different Wings team since Todd McLellan took over as the head coach. They have won three straight and eight of ten overall. Detroit has won six of their last eight against the Lightning and three of their last four at Tampa. The Lightning are 12-4 as the home favorite this season and lost two of those games when favored by (-200+). Overall this season, the Lightning are just 4-3 as a favorite of (-200) and higher. If Detroit goes with anyone not named Ville Husso, then a small play on the Red Wings money line has value.
What does have value when it comes to Wings games is a goal to be scored in the first 10 minutes (10 straight, 14 of 15), the first period Over 1.5 goals (8 of 10), and the full game Over the total. Eight of the 10 games with McLellan as the head coach have had 7 or more combined goals and nine of the 10 have had six or more. Tampa’s last three games have all gone Over the total. Shop around on the full game Over, as not all books are offering a six.
When it comes to player props, I could go crazy with Detroit props with the run that Patrick Kane, Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat and Lucas Raymond are on right now. I am going to go with a value play and isolate Detroit rookie Marco Kasper, who plays alongside Larkin and Raymond. Kasper has a goal and an assist in three of the last four games.
NHL Predictions: Detroit Red Wings/Tampa Bay Lightning Goal 1st 10 (-160) – 1 unit
Detroit Red Wings/Tampa Bay Lightning 1st Period Over 1.5 (-135) – 1 unit
Detroit Red Wings/Tampa Bay Lightning Over 6 (-115) – 1 unit
Detroit Red Wings ML (+170) – ¼ unit
Marco Kasper Over ½ assist (+300) – ¼ unit
Marco Kasper anytime goal (+500) – ¼ unit
Alex DeBrincat Over ½ point (-128) – ½ unit
Columbus Blue Jackets at NY Rangers (-185, 6.5)
7 p.m. ET
The Jackets enter tonight’s game on a six-game heater For them to extend the winning streak to seven, they will need to snap a three-game losing streak at MSG. The Rangers return home after taking two of three on the road with wins over Vegas and Utah sandwiched around an overtime loss to Colorado. The Blueshirts have won four of their last six overall. Even with the Rangers playing some better hockey and their recent success against Columbus at home, it’s either Blue Jackets money line or pass when it comes to playing a side. I am going to attack the prop market when it comes to playing this game. Rangers games have featured a goal in the first 10 minutes in 11 of their last 13 overall and 16 of 19 at home. After a strong start to the season, forward Alexis Lafreniere has struggled to score goals. He has just two goals in the past 18 games and both of those came in the same game, but it hasn’t been because he hasn’t been shooting the puck. Lafreniere has had four shots on goal or more in seven of the past nine games. The Jackets’ Zach Werenski leads Columbus with 178 shots on goal, but he has struggled on the road, recording two shots on goal or less in four of his last six games.
Chris Kreider and Artemi Panarin are starting to regain their scoring touch for the Rangers. Kreider has three goals in his past five games, and Panarin has three goals in his last six games. Both Kreider and Panarin have gotten the best of Jackets starting goalie Elvis Merzlikins in their career. Kreider has six goals in seven games against the Jackets netminder, and Panarin has 13 goals in 18 games against his former team, including four goals in eight games versus Merzlikins. With the injury to Sean Monahan, Adam Fantilli has flourished as the team’s number-one center. Fantilli has points in seven straight and does have one goal in two games against the Rangers.
NHL Predictions: Columbus Blue Jackets/New York Rangers Goal 1st 10 (-165) – 1 unit
Adam Fantilli Over ½ assist (+196) – ¼ unit
Adam Fantilli anytime goal (+260) – ¼ unit
Artemi Panarin anytime goal (+145) – ¼ unit
Alexis Lafreniere Over 2.5 SOG (-118) – ½ unit
Alexis Lafreniere Over 3.5 SOG (+220) – ½ unit
San Jose Sharks at NY Islanders (-225, 5.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
Two teams that sit 15th in their respective conferences meet tonight when the Sharks and Islanders face off at UBS Arena. Four of the last eight meetings between the two teams have gone to overtime, with the Sharks winning all four games.
Anders Lee has 12 goals in 18 games against the Sharks. Pierre Engvall has four goals in five games against Alexander Georgiev in his career. While I like the Sharks to win this game, I must go with the Islanders in the first period with Georgiev in goal. We have documented his first-period struggles as his teams (Sharks/Avs) are 3-20-3 in the opening period.
NHL Predictions: Macklin Celebrini Over 2.5 SOG (-140) – 1 unit
William Eklund anytime goal (+330) – ¼ unit
Anders Lee anytime goal (+175) – ¼ unit
Pierre Engvall anytime goal (+550) – ¼ unit
New York Islanders 1st period -1/2 goal (+124) – 1 unit
San Jose Sharks ML (+185) – ½ unit
Regulation Draw (+340) – ¼ unit
Best of the Rest:
Alexander Ovechkin anytime goal (+120) – ¼ unit
Gabe Vilardi anytime goal (+190) – ¼ unit
