NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Saturday, January 25:
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
New Jersey Devils (-170, 6.5) at Montreal Canadiens
7 p.m. ET
With number one goalie Jacob Markstrom expected to be sidelined for the next four to six weeks due to an MCL sprain, former Canadiens goalie Jake Allen is expected to carry the workload between the pipes. Allen was forced into action on Wednesday when Markstrom suffered the injury as the Devils knocked off Boston, 5-1. The win snapped a six-game losing streak for Allen. The Devils lost by two or more goals in Allen’s last five starts. They scored two goals or less in each of the five defeats and were shut out twice. New Jersey has also struggled on the road, losing seven of their last eight games away from home and nine of their last 12 games overall.
Montreal is coming off a 4-2 loss at Detroit but have been a great bounce-back team of late, winning their last five games following a defeat. The loss to Detroit was just their fourth in their past 17 games. Habs defenseman Lane Hutson had his nine-game assist streak come to an end on Thursday. Patrik Laine has points in six of his last seven games and has eight goals in nine games against Jake Allen. Brendan Gallagher has four goals in seven games against his former goaltender.
NHL Predictions: Montreal Canadiens Money Line (+145) – 1 unit
Montreal Canadiens TT over 2.5 (-145) – 1 unit
Lane Hutson Over ½ assist (+112) – ½ unit
Brendan Gallagher anytime goal (+470) – ½ unit
Patrik Laine Over ½ assist (+200) – ½ unit
Patrik Laine anytime goal (+200) – ½ unit
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators (-112, 5.5)
7 p.m. ET
This is game number two of our system play, as the Senators have been shut out in back-to-back games. I believe the Sens are the third team, joining Seattle and Florida as others who were shut out in consecutive games and then cashed the goal in the first 10 prop and the first period Over 1.5, as well as cashing the full game Over.
I have some concerns with the Senators and the system play. Even prior to being blanked in back-to-back games, Ottawa has been trending to a dead Under team. The Under is 13-1-1 in their last 15 games. But as my good friend Ian Cameron (@bobanobets) says, “The system is the system, and you go with the system.”
The Maple Leafs, for their part, have been a strong road Over team as 10 of their last 13 road games have had a combined six or more goals, and eight of the 13 have had seven goals or more. With this game sitting at a total of five across the board, I feel good about playing the Over 5.5. Ten of the Leafs’ last 12 road games and 17 of their last 21 overall have had a goal scored in the first 10 minutes.
NHL Predictions: Goal 1st 10/Yes (-145) – 1 unit
1st Period Over 5.5 (-125) – 1 unit
Toronto Maple Leafs/Ottawa Senators Over 5.5 (-120) – 1 unit
Auston Matthews anytime goal (+100) – ½ unit
Auston Mathews Over ½ assist (+105) – ½ unit
Mitch Marner anytime goal (+240) – ½ unit
Claude Giroux anytime goal (+400) – ¼ unit
Tampa Bay Lightning (-135, 6.5) at Detroit Red Wings
7 p.m. ET
Keeping this one simple. A goal in the first 10 minutes has cashed in 14 of the last 18 Detroit home games and 16 of their last 19 overall. Eight of the last 11 Bolts games have had a goal scored in the first 10 minutes.
One player prop that I will go with is a Victor Hedman assist. Hedman has an assist in seven of his last nine games including one when the teams met seven days ago. For his career, Hedman has 36 assists in 45 games versus the Red Wings.
NHL Predictions: Goal in the 1st 10/Yes (-155) – 1 unit
Victor Hedman Over ½ assist (+105) – 1 unit
Los Angeles Kings (-175, 5.5) at Columbus Blue Jackets
7 p.m. ET
It’s the dads’ trip for the LA Kings. We could also see the return of Drew Doughty, who was a participant in the Kings’ practice prior to their home game against the Florida Panthers on Wednesday. The Kings have won four straight and six of the last seven meetings against the Blue Jackets. The last four contests in Columbus have all gone past 60 minutes.
This is a Kings team that just can’t seem to score goals. LA has scored two goals or less in seven of their last nine games. The lack of overall scoring has not impacted Adrian Kempe, who has goals in eight of his last 10 games.
The Kings have been a great Under bet (27-15-5) when it comes to playing the full game total, while the Jackets are the league’s best Over team (30-17-2) but have gone 6-1 to the Under in their last seven games.
Jackets defenseman Zach Werenski must be in the Norris Trophy conversation. He is tied (53 points) with Cale Makar at the top of the scoring race among blueliners. Werenski has done most of his damage on home ice, where he is on an 18-game point streak (six of his last eight home games with 2+ points). Forty of his 53 points have come at Nationwide Arena. He has also been a great bet when it comes to cashing his shots on goal prop at home as compared to the road. Werenski has had five or more shots on goal in seven of his last eight home games and three or more in all eight games. Compare that to the road, where he has registered two shots on goal or less in six of his last eight games away from home.
NHL Predictions: Regulation Draw (+320) – ¼ unit
Columbus Blue Jackets ML (+145) – ½ unit
Adrian Kempe anytime goal (+165) – ¼ unit
Zach Werenski Over ½ assist (-128) – 1 unit
Zach Werenski Over 2.5 SOG (-140) – 3 units
Zach Werenski Over 3.5 SOG (+180) – ½ unit
Zach Werenski Over 4.5 SOG (+380) – ¼ unit
Zach Werenski Over 5.5 SOG (+750) – ¼ unit
Dallas Stars (-135, 5.5) at St. Louis Blues
7 p.m. ET
Three things stand out for me when it comes to this matchup. Both teams are on a run of goals being scored early in their games. The Blues are on an 11-2 run overall, 7-1 at home. Stars games have featured a goal in the opening 10 minutes in eight of their last 10 games.
The second trend that stands out is these teams need overtime to settle their differences. Four of their last five games have gone past 60 minutes, and four of the last five games have ended 2-1. Three of those 2-1 games ended with bonus hockey. Lastly, the under has cashed in 10 of the last 12 meetings. Shop around as there are 6’s available for the total. Nine of the 11 games started by Casey DeSmith (Dallas goalie today) have had a combined six goals or less, and six of those have had five goals or less. The Blues have scored two goals or less in four of their last six games overall.
NHL Predictions: Goal 1st 10/Yes (-145) – 1 unit
Regulation Draw (+310) – ¼ unit
Correct Score (Regulation) 1-1 (+2000) – ¼ unit
Dallas Stars/St. Louis Blues Under 6 (-120) – 1 unit
Brayden Schenn (+380) – ¼ unit
Jason Robertson (+195) – ¼ unit
Wyatt Johnston (+220) – ¼ unit
Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild (-155, 5.5)
7 p.m ET
It’s the third and final game of our system play (goal 1st 10, 1st period Over) for Saturday as the Wild were blanked 4-0 by Utah on Thursday in the return of Kirill Kaprizov to the Minnesota lineup.
Both the Flames (4-1) and Wild (5-2) are on the front end of a back-to-back and have had success in this spot. For the Flames, where they have struggled is in the role as road underdog (4-11). Their four wins have come against Montreal (early in the season), Anaheim, Chicago and San Jose. Today is also Hockey Day in Minnesota, and according to friend of the column, Terry Edelmann (@tepicks), the Wild are 13-3-1 on Hockey Day in Minnesota. Interesting to note that the Flames are receiving 22% of the bets and 59% of the money.
Three of the last five and four of the last eight meetings have gone to overtime.
NHL Predictions: Goal 1st 10/Yes (-145) – 1 unit
1st Period Over 1.5 (-125) – 1 unit
Kirill Kaprizov anytime goal (+115) – ¼ unit
Matt Boldy anytime goal (+185) – ¼ unit
Matt Boldy Over ½ assist (+144) – ¼ unit
Marco Rossi Over ½ assist (+148) – ¼ unit
Marco Rossi anytime goal (+280) – ¼ unit
Regulation Draw (+310) – ¼ unit
Washington Capitals (-125, 5.5) at Vancouver Canucks
10 p.m. ET
The Washington Capitals continue to be the biggest surprise of the season as they sit first overall in the league standings. Tonight, they put their six-game winning streak on the line in Vancouver against a Canucks team that just got thumped by the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday, 6-2. They have dropped eight of their last 11 games. The Caps have given up two goals or less in all six wins, including recording three shutouts. The Canucks have been limited to two goals or less in seven of their last 10 games.
Washington has won seven of the last 10 meetings with Vancouver, including a 2-1 overtime win 17 days ago in Washington. It marked the fifth time in the last nine matchups that they have needed overtime to decide a winner.
Alexander Ovechkin, who scored a goal in the Caps 3-0 win over Seattle, is now just 20 goals shy of breaking Wayne Gretzky’s record of 894 career goals.
NHL Predictions: Ovechkin anytime goal (+145) – ½ unit
Regulation Draw (+330) – ¼ unit
Tom Wilson anytime goal (+260) – ½ unit
Nashville Predators (-192, 6.5) at Anaheim Ducks
10 p.m. ET
This game is strictly about Nashville player props. The Predators’ Jonathan Marchessault and Filip Forsberg have all been helping us build our bankroll. Marchessault has an assist in nine straight games, points in 18 of the last 19 games and he is still available at a plus price to record an assist. Filip Forsberg has goals in seven straight and Roman Josi has helped to set up goals in eight of the last nine games. Rookie Fedor Svechkov has goals in three straight. Why not make it four in a row.
Anaheim games have featured a goal in the opening 10 minutes in eight of the last 10 games.
NHL Predictions: Goal in the 1st 10/Yes (-155) – 1 unit
Marchessault Over ½ assist (+112) – ½ unit
Filip Forsberg anytime goal (+135) – ½ unit
Steven Stamkos anytime goal (+150) – ½ unit
Mason McTavish anytime goal (+330) – ¼ unit
Fedor Svechkov anytime goal (+425) – ¼ unit
Florida Panthers (-310, 6.5) at San Jose Sharks
10 p.m. ET
For the third time this week, the Sharks face a team that has thoroughly dominated them over the years. Earlier this week, it was two games against the Nashville Predators, to whom they have lost 12 straight, 14 of 15 and 16 of the last 20. Tonight, the Sharks will try to snap an 11-game losing streak to the Florida Panthers when they meet tonight in San Jose. The losing streak goes even deeper as the Sharks have just four wins over the Panthers in the last 20 meetings.
San Jose has dropped five straight and eight of the last nine overall. The Sharks Macklin Celebrini has registered three or more shots on goal in seven consecutive games. If Alexandar Georgiev gets the start for San Jose, I will once again jump on the opposition’s (Florida Panthers) first-period Puck Line (-1/2 goal). This season, Georgiev’s teams (Sharks/Avs) are 4-20-4 after the opening 20 minutes.
NHL Predictions: Macklin Celebrini Over 2.5 SOG (-175) – 1 unit
If Alexandar Georgiev starts for SJ: Florida 1st Period (-1/2 goal) -115 – 2 units
