NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Saturday, May 17
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars (-155, 5.5)
Dallas leads series 3-2
8 p.m. ET
There is always time to change your narrative, and that is what lies ahead tonight for Winnipeg Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck has lost nine straight on the road and has just one win in his last 12 games away from home. In nine of the 11 defeats, Winnipeg has lost by three goals or more, including Game Three of this series. Lose tonight, and the Jets, who finished the regular season first overall in the standings, will see their season come to an end, and the mystery surrounding Hellebuyck’s struggles on the road will continue. Here is how I am attacking tonight’s game.
With Dallas losing Game Five, they fit our trend of wagering on the team coming off a loss to score a first-period goal and to score the first goal of the game. Both those trends are 35-21 in this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Stars to score a first-period goal is too juicy (-180) for my liking, but the price on them to score the first goal of the game (-145) is at a reasonable number.
Staying with our playoff trends, in the five previous games following a shutout, the full game Over has cashed in all five. Tonight is the 16th game of the playoffs where a team is facing elimination. Twelve of the 15 previous games have been decided by two or more goals. In the five games where the team facing elimination won the game, all five have had a margin of two goals or more, including last night’s Leafs (2-0) win against the Panthers.
One player prop parlay that I will continue to ride. The Jets’ Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers have both had three or more shots on goal in six of the last seven games. At FanDuel, you can get their Over 2.5 shots on goal prop (regulation only) at a plus price as opposed to having to pay the juice at other books where overtime is included.
Game Six Predictions:
Dallas Stars to score the first goal of the game (-145) – 1 unit
Jets/Stars Over 5.5 (-106) – 1 unit
Kyle Connor/Nikolaj Ehlers Over 2.5 SOG in regulation parlay (+151) – 1 unit
Dallas Stars -1.5 goals (+172) – .50 units
Winnipeg Jets -1.5 goals (+285) – .50 units
