NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Saturday, May 3:
The best series of the NHL’s opening round is going the distance. Well, duh, of course.
Colorado Avalanche (-165, 5.5) at Dallas Stars
Game Seven (Series tied 3-3)
8 p.m. ET
Dallas Stars coach Pete DeBoer is “Mr. Game Seven.” DeBoer is 8-0 in Game Sevens throughout his career. “Obviously great memories. I don’t have any bad ones. Let’s keep that going,” DeBoer said. On the other hand, the Avalanche have lost six straight Game Sevens, including their last three to the Dallas Stars. The last time the Colorado Avalanche won Game Seven was 2002, and Cale Makar was three years old.
Colorado opened as a (-135) road favorite, and we see a big line move to the Avalanche as they are now (-165) favorites. If you go to the VSIN Betting Splits page, the Avalanche are taking 40% of the bets but a whopping 81% of the money (at Circa). At DraftKings, we see the Avalanche receiving 57% bets but just 49% of the money, indicating that Colorado is receiving a lot of “Sharp Money” wagers.
I can’t back the Avalanche on the Money Line at this price, especially with Jake Oettinger’s numbers in his last three game sevens. Oettinger is 2-1 with a 1.54 goals against average and a .956 save percentage. But I will once again target both teams on the Puck Line (-1.5 goals). I also like the Stars to score the first goal of the game. Teams in the playoffs coming off a loss that have scored the first goal in the next game are 24-11.
Game Sevens are all about sacrificing your body to win a game. With that in mind, a couple of blocked shot props for me. Colorado’s Ryan Lindgren has had three blocked shots in each of the last three games. Thomas Harley of Dallas has had three or more in each of the last three as well.
Finally, a couple of shots on goal props. Colorado’s Cale Makar has had four or more shots on goal in four of the last five games and five or more three times. The Stars’ Mason Marchment has had four straight games of two shots on goal.
Game Seven Predictions:
Dallas Stars to score 1st goal of the game (regulation) +105 – .50 units
Dallas Stars -1.5 goals (alternate line) +310 – .25 units
Colorado Avalanche -1.5 goals +156 – .25 units
Ryan Lindgren Over 2.5 blocks +120 – .50 units
Thomas Harley Over 2.5 blocks +205 – .50 units
Cale Makar Over 3.5 shots on goal (-110) – .50 units
Cale Makar Over 4.5 shots on goal +205 – .25 units
Mason Marchment Over 1.5 shots on goal (-155) – .50 units
Joel Kiviranta anytime goal +1200 – .10 units
Matt Duchene anytime goal +375 – .10 units
