NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Here are today’s NHL predictions and best bets.
Dallas Stars (6-3-2) at Florida Panthers (5-5-1)
Betting Line: (Florida -130, 5.5)
6 p.m. ET
The Dallas Stars come into South Florida on Saturday, struggling to score goals. Dallas has scored two goals or fewer in five of their last seven games (back-to-back games with one goal), and they have not scored a first period goal in seven consecutive games. The lack of offense from the Stars, combined with giving up three or fewer goals in six of their last seven games, has also led to them playing seven consecutive games that have gone Under the full game total. Just like the visitors, Florida Panthers games have seen an Under trend. The first period Under 1.5 goals has cashed in eight consecutive games, and the full game Under has made us money in five of the last seven games. My only concern with playing the full game Under is that the last nine meetings between the two teams have had a combined six goals or more.
Both teams are dealing with key injuries to their forward group, which helps to explain why both teams have struggled to score. The Stars are still without Roope Hintz and Jamie Benn, while the Panthers’ Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov are both out with long-term injuries. The Panthers have won the last four meetings between the two teams and seven of the last 10. Sergei Bobrovsky has owned the Dallas Stars in his career with 19 wins in 23 career starts (19-2-2).
A couple of player props that I am targeting. The Panthers’ Sam Reinhart is on a three-game goal streak and has five goals in 10 games against Dallas goalie Casey DeSmith. Evan Rodrigues, who centers Reinhart on the top line, has four goals in six games against the Stars netminder. Rodrigues has scored the first goal of the game in each of the last two meetings with Dallas and three of the last four. With Anton Lundell and Eetu “cool mint” Luostarinen playing together on both the second line and top power play unit, I will parlay them to each score a point at a nice “plus money” price.
On the Dallas side, I am going to jump on a couple of value plays. The Stars’ Tyler Seguin centers the top line and number one power play and has 10 goals in 17 games against Sergei Bobrovsky. Further down the lineup, Colin Blackwell, who plays on the Stars’ fourth line, has two goals (on four shots) in the five games he has faced Bob.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
1st period Under 1.5 goals (-102) – 1 unit
Sam Reinhart anytime goal (+160) – .10 units
Evan Rodrigues anytime goal (+370) – .10 units
Evan Rodrigues 1st goal of the game (+2200) – .05 units
Evan Rodrigues 1st Panthers goal of the game (+1200) – .05 units
Anton Lundell/Eetu Luostarinen point parlay (+220) – .10 units
Tyler Seguin anytime goal (+240) – .10 units
Colin Blackwell anytime goal (+850) – .10 units
Ottawa Senators (6-5-1) at Montreal Canadiens (8-3-0)
Betting Line: (Canadiens -125, 6.5)
7 p.m. ET
If you like goals, this is one of the games you should be paying attention to, with two of the top 10 scoring teams facing off against each other at the Bell Centre in Montreal. Montreal, led by Cole Caufield’s nine goals, ranks fifth in the NHL in goals per game. Shane Pinto (eight goals) and the Sens have the league’s ninth-best offense. The full game Over has cashed in nine of the 12 Ottawa games this season. Eight of the last 10 meetings between the two teams have had seven goals or more. Another contributing factor to the Over is that Ottawa ranks 30th in goals against and has given up 10 goals in the last two games. The Canadiens have confirmed that Samuel Montembeault will get the start tonight. He has given up 14 goals in his last three games and has just three wins in seven games with a goals against average just above three (3.14). Habs games with Montembeault in net have had a combined seven goals or more.
With all the offense, this game is all about the player props. Montreal’s Nick Suzuki is on a 10-game point streak (two goals, 14 assists). Lane Hutson has points in five consecutive games and assists in four straight games. Last season, Hutson scored a goal and three assists in the four games against the Sens.
Drake Batherson and Tim Stutzle lead the Senators in scoring with 13 points. Batherson has nine points in his last four games and has scored four goals in the seven games he has faced Montreal goalie Samuel Montembeault. Stutzle is riding a four-game points and assists streak. Shane Pinto has three goals in six games against Montembeault on just 11 shots.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Ottawa Senators/Montreal Canadiens Over 6.5 (-102) – .50 units
Ottawa Senators Team Total Over 3 (-106) – .50 units
Cole Caufield anytime goal (+145) – .10 units
Nick Suzuki/Lane Hutson each Over ½ assist (+178) – .20 units
Tim Stutzle Over ½ assist (+110) – .20 units
Shane Pinto anytime goal (+230) – .10 units
Drake Batherson anytime goal (+180) – .10 units
Drake Batherson Over ½ assist (+130) – .10 units
Toronto Maple Leafs (5-5-1) at Philadelphia Flyers (6-3-1)
Betting Line: (Maple Leafs -125, 6) – NHL Network, CBC
7 p.m. ET
The Toronto Maple Leafs travel to Philadelphia tonight as losers of four of their last six. They face a Flyers team that has won three straight and six of their last eight games. But this could be a get-right spot for Toronto, who has won three straight and 11 of the last 12 meetings with the Flyers, limiting Philly to two goals in eight of the 11 wins. It could be, but I lean strongly to Toronto’s current trends as they have given up three goals or more in four straight and six of their last eight games. For the season, Maple Leafs goals have gone Over the total in nine of 11 games and six consecutive games.
Tonight’s goalie matchup is expected to be Anthony Stolarz (expected to start) against Dan Vladar (confirmed starter). This could also be the night that Auston Matthews gets back on track. The Leafs captain has one goal in his last six games, but he does have five goals in five games against Flyers goalie Dan Vladar. For the Flyers, it has been a great start to the season for Trevor Zegras, who was acquired from the Anaheim Ducks in the summer. Zegras leads the team in scoring (four goals, 12 points) and is the only Flyers player with double-digit points. Zegras has points and assists in three straight games and points in eight of his last nine games.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Philadelphia Flyers Team Total Over 2.5 (-149) – .75 units
Trevor Zegras Over ½ assist (+142) – .20 units
Auston Matthews anytime goal (+120) – .10 units
Noah Cates Over ½ assist (+220) – .10 units
New Jersey Devils (8-3-0) at Los Angeles Kings (5-3-4)
Betting Line: (Devils -110, 5.5)
9 p.m. ET
The New Jersey Devils visit the Los Angeles Kings as they aim to halt a two-game skid on the West Coast. The Kings seek their first home win (0-2-2) amid a seven-game point streak. The Kings have just two regulation wins in the season and have gone to overtime a league-leading seven times. Seventh in the Pacific Division, the Kings have earned points in seven straight (4-0-3). They rank 16th in scoring (2.9 goals/game, 35 total) and 22nd in goals against (3.1/game, 37 total). Even though the Devils have been touched up for 13 goals in their last two games, I believe this is a spot at a cheap price that makes New Jersey a good bet tonight. We are still waiting for the starting goalies to be announced, but I am strongly leaning toward the Over 5.5 goals. New Jersey games have flown over the total in their past three games (7.12,7), and Kings games have gone Over the full game total in three of their past four games. Three of the four Kings’ home games this season have had a combined total of six goals or more.
A couple of player props that intrigue me in this game include the Kings’ Corey Perry, who has goals in back-to-back games and has five goals in his six games since making his Kings debut. Alex Laferriere has points in three straight games.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
New Jersey Devils ML (-105) – 1.5 units
New Jersey Devils/Los Angeles Kings Over 5.5 (-140) – 1 unit
Corey Perry anytime goal (+370) – .10 units Alex Laferriere Over ½ point (+134) – .10 units
Dawson Mercer anytime goal (+290) – .10 units
Jesper Bratt Over ½ assist (-104) – .10 units
