NHL Predictions – Saturday, November 16:
I always look forward to the Saturday NHL schedule. You know you are going to get a full card of games and it’s Hockey Night in Canada. Today’s NHL schedule features four outstanding matchups with Jets at Panthers, Edmonton at Toronto, New Jersey at Tampa, and Dallas at Minnesota. For those able to watch the Hockey Night in Canada broadcasts, Paul Bissonnette will be part of the crew tonight and don’t be surprised if he is decked out in Maple Leafs gear. The Ontario native loves his hometown team. We have one game already in progress with Boston and St. Louis meeting for a second time this week. Not to worry. There are still six games that I have isolated for tonight’s best bets.
New York Islanders at Seattle Kraken (-110, 5.5)
4 pm. ET
If you read today’s VSIN Newsletter – and if you didn’t shame on you – I outlined NHL teams who have a propensity to play overtime games. Today’s game in Seattle features an Islanders team that has gone to overtime in 41% of their games (7 of 17) this season and a Seattle team that has played four games needing extra time. Last season, both meetings between the Islanders and Kraken needed extra time to decide a winner. I am going to pass on both the side and total. One player prop that I am waiting for a line on is a Daniel Sprong anytime goal. Sprong makes his Kraken return after being acquired from Vancouver in a trade last week. Sprong has four goals in five games versus Islanders starting goalie, Ilya Sorokin and eight goals in 16 games against all Islanders goalies.
NHL Predictions: Islanders/Kraken Regulation Draw (+310) – ¼ unit
Daniel Sprong anytime goal (tba) – ½ unit
Edmonton Oilers (-140, 6) at Toronto Maple Leafs
7 p.m. ET
Both the Oilers and Maple Leafs are coming off thrilling overtime victories. Connor McDavid earned career points 1000 and 1001 in the Oilers 3-2 win over Nashville and the Maple Leafs rallied from 3-1 down in the third period for a 4-3 OT win at Washington.
Both teams come into tonight’s game on a roll. The Maple Leafs have won four of their last five games and have given up two goals or less in four of their last six games. Edmonton has won three straight (last two in overtime) and five of their last seven. The teams have split their last four meetings, the home team winning each time. The winning team has scored four goals or more in eight of their last 10 meetings and covered the Puck Line in six straight.
NHL Predictions: McDavid/Draisaitl each 1+ point parlay – 2 units to win 1
Pontus Holmberg anytime goal (+700) – ¼ unit
Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes (-170, 6.5)
7 p.m. ET
The Hurricanes are coming off a 4-1 loss at Utah where they were “goalied” by Karl Vejmelka. The Utah HC netminder stopped 49 of 50 shots in the victory. Not only did Carolina lose the game, but goalie Pyotr Kochetkov was injured in the game and is day-to-day. The Canes are already with Freddie Anderson, so that leaves Spencer Martin as the number one goalie. Martin gave up five goals on 28 shots in his only start of the season and gave up one goal on three shots in relief of Kochetkov in the game at Utah. With Martin confirmed as the Carolina starter we have seen the line move from Carolina -180 to -170 and the total rise from 6 to 6.5.
The Senators are coming off a disappointing 5-4 overtime loss to the Flyers on home ice on Thursday. Ottawa led 2-1 and 4-2 midway through the third period only to see the Flyers rally for the win. Carolina has dominated this series winning five of six and seven of the last 10. The concern for me in betting the Canes is I have no faith in Martin.
What I do trust is that Jack Roslovic will continue to cash his shots on goal props. Roslovic has had at least two shots on goal in eight consecutive games and 12 of his last 13. He has had 3+ shots on goal in eight of his last 10 games. Martin Necas leads the team in points and is riding an 11-game point streak that includes 14 assists.
NHL Predictions: Jack Roslovic 2+ SOG (-175) – 3 units
Jack Roslovic 3+ SOG (+170) – 1 unit
Martin Necas Over ½ assist (-115) – 1 unit
Winnipeg Jets at Florida Panthers (-130, 6)
7 p.m. ET
The Winnipeg Jets will look to avoid their first two game losing streak of the season when they head to Sunrise to play the Panthers who are coming off losing back-to-back home games to the New Jersey Devils. Florida was outscored by the Devils 10-3 in the two games.
The Jets have won the last four meetings against the Panthers and their former head coach, Paul Maurice. Winnipeg has won seven of the last 10 overall between the two teams and the Over is 7-1-2 in the last 10. For the season the Over has cashed in 12 of the Panthers 17 games and seven of the last 10 Jets games.
I can make a case for playing both sides, so I am going to stay away from playing either team. Instead, I will focus on the total going Over and a couple of player props. I’ve already highlighted the Over trends between the two teams as well as the run that both the Jets and Panthers have had this season to their games going Over the total. Bettors, “Pros” and “Joes”, are on the Over as well with 77% of the bets and 74% of the money on the Over 6.
Two player props that caught my eye were Evan Rodrigues of the Panthers who has 11 points in 10 games against the Jets. Rodrigues plays on the Panthers top line and sees time on the second power play unit.
Nikolaj Ehlers has eight goals in 13 games versus the Panthers and four goals in nine games against Sergei Bobrovsky.
NHL Predictions: Jets/Panthers Over 6 – 1.5 Units
Evan Rodrigues Over ½ point (+155) – ½ unit
Nikolaj Ehlers anytime goal (+185) – ½ unit
Columbus Blue Jackets at Montreal Canadiens (-122, 6.5)
7 p.m. ET
On a day with 12 games on the NHL card when you have great matchups like, the Jets at Florida, Edmonton at Toronto and Tampa at New Jersey, the Canadiens sitting 32nd and last overall in the standings hosting a Blue Jackets team that has just one win in its last six games. A Montreal team that has lost seven of their last eight doesn’t jump off the board for most. Here’s why it caught my eye.
The Canadiens have won five straight over the Jackets, four of those wins they covered the puck line. The Jackets come into Montreal on the back end of a back-to-back and have lost both games this season in the second game of a back-to-back. Last season the Jackets were 4-9 in this spot. The Jackets are 5-3 this season as a home underdog. They are 2-4 as a road underdog. This will be the first time this season the Canadiens are a home betting favorite. Over the past two seasons, the Habs are 8-2 in this spot (4-1, each season).
Montreal opened as a -145 favorite and the line has moved to Columbus as the Canadiens have been bet down to -122. Most times I will respect a line move, but in this game, I will embrace the fact that we get the Canadiens a better price.
I am also going to embrace a player prop tonight with the Canadiens top two scorers, Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Both players have been held off the scoresheet in five of the last six games (Suzuki 4 pts vs Buffalo, Caufield 2 goals vs Buf) but both have enjoyed success against the Jackets. Suzuki has 15 points in 12 games versus Columbus and Caufield has seven points in seven games.
NHL Predictions: Canadiens ML (-122) – 1 unit
Cole Caufield/Nick Suzuki each over ½ point (+100) – 1 unit
Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild (-155, 6)
8 p.m. ET
The Stars are coming off back-to-back games scoring seven goals in each with wins over Pittsburgh and Boston. The Stars have 10 wins this season but only one of their wins has come against a team with a record of over .500 (Edmonton). Conversely, their five losses have been to Winnipeg, Washington, Buffalo and Florida twice. Stars head coach Pete DeBoer put it best when he said the Stars are beating the teams they should win against but need to figure out how to beat the league’s best. Jason Robertson is in a scoring drought, held without a goal in seven straight and has just four goals for the season, but he does have 11 goals in 10 games against Minnesota.
The Wild have won three of four and six of eight and own wins over Florida and Toronto, limiting both teams to one goal each. Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov is making an early case for the Hart Trophy (league MVP). Kaprizov has nine points in his last four games and has put up 11 multi-point games this season. For his career, Kaprizov has five goals in eight games vs Dallas starting goalie, Jake Oettinger and his 13 points in nine games versus the Stars.
NHL Predictions: Kirill Kaprizov Over 1.5 points (+135) – 1 unit
Kirill Kaprizov anytime goal (+110) – 1 unit
Jason Robertson anytime goal (+230) – ½ unit
Matt Duchene/Tyler Seguin each Over ½ point (+171) – 1 unit
