NHL Predictions – Saturday, October 12:
For someone who grew up in Canada, I always counted down the hours until Hockey Night in Canada hit the air. It was going to be a full slate of games highlighted by a doubleheader featuring the Canadiens and Maple Leafs at 7 p.m. ET and then the Canucks, Oilers or Flames at 10p.m. ET. That’s exactly what we get tonight with the featured games being Sidney Crosby and the Penguins facing off in Toronto against Auston Matthews and the Maple Leafs and then at 10 p.m ET/8 p.m. MT, it’s the battle of the Connors. Bedard and the Blackhawks visit McDavid and the Oilers. I will have plays in both those games.
Before we get to those, some early betting trends to touch on. Favorites ranging from (-175) to (-199) are 1-3 to start the season with the Vancouver Canucks responsible for two of the losses. The Canucks lost their opener in overtime and last night a shootout loss to the Philadelphia Flyers. Last season, Vancouver was 42-1-4 when taking a lead to the third period. Conversely, betting favorites of (-200+) are 4-1.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs (-198, 6.5)
7 p.m. ET
The Maple Leafs opened as a (-190) home favorite, and we are seeing the line continue to move in the direction of the home team as the Maple Leafs are taking in 85% of the bets and 77% of the money. Toronto is coming off an impressive 4-2 win at New Jersey on Thursday, one day after being blanked by the Montreal Canadiens. Newcomer Max Pacioretty scored his first goal as a Maple Leaf while Auston Matthews is still in search of his first goal of the 2024-25 season. Only three times last season did Matthews go three or more games without a goal. He has scored in two of the last three meetings versus the Penguins. One other note on Pacioretty. In his 33 career games against the Penguins, he has 116 shots on goal.
Pittsburgh has split their first two games of the season. After getting thumped, 6-0 by the Rangers in their opener, they bounced back the next night at Detroit, knocking off the Red Wings, 6-3. Both Sidney Crosby and Geno Malkin are in search of their first goals of the season.
Plays: Auston Matthews anytime goal (-140) – 1 unit
Max Pacioretty Over 2.5 SOG (+140) – 1 unit
Maple Leafs in Regulation (-150) – 1 unit
Ottawa Senators (-162, 6) at Montreal Canadiens
7 p.m. ET
In talking to colleagues both who cover the team locally and others around the league, there is a great deal of optimism around the Senators and their chances of finding themselves back in the playoffs. Ottawa opened the season with a 3-1 win on home ice over the defending Stanley Cup champion, Florida Panthers. The win over Florida snapped a five-game losing streak to the Panthers as chants ran through the building of ‘Brady is better” (than his brother, Matthew). Linus Ullmark, acquired in an off-season trade with the Boston Bruins came up with some big saves and key moments in his debut.
Ottawa has feasted on the Canadiens over the past few seasons, winning nine of the last 10 contests, scoring four or more goals in eight of the wins. The Canadiens are coming off a 6-4 loss in Boston, just one night after blanking the Maple Leafs, 1-0. Cole Caufield has found the back of the net in each game and has seven goals in 10 career games versus Ottawa. Veteran Brendan Gallagher leads the Canadiens in shots on goal with eight and his 132 shots on goal in 44 games versus the Senators is also a team best.
Plays: Ottawa Senators ML (-162) – 1 unit
Brendan Gallagher Over 2.5 SOG (+135) – 1 unit
Utah HC at NY Rangers (-205, 6)
7 p.m. ET
The Utah HC have a pair of wins to start the season (2-0). Utah erased three deficits against the Islanders on Thursday night, tying the game with under two minutes to play and then winning in overtime. Dylan Guenther leads the NHL with four goals, scoring a pair in each of the two games while Logan Cooley is the team assist leader with four.
The Rangers have been off since blanking the Penguins, 6-0 on Wednesday. Alexis Lafreniere was one of four Rangers players who had multi point games. I pointed out in my NHL futures article for VSIN that I played Lafreniere over his season point total of over 64.5 and jumped on the former first overall pick in game one cashing the Over ½ point.
Plays: Alexis Lafreniere Over ½ point (-120) – 1 unit
Logan Cooley Over ½ point (+135) – 1 unit
New Jersey Devils (-142, 6) at Washington Capitals
7 p.m. ET
The Devils (2-1) are coming off a 4-2 loss on home ice to the Toronto Maple Leafs and it had to sting Devils head coach Sheldon Keefe losing to the team that fired him in the summer. Tonight, they travel to Washington to face the Capitals as Alexander Ovechkin begins his quest to become the NHL’s all-time goals leader, trailing Wayne Gretzky by 42 goals.
With the Capitals yet to play a game and this being New Jersey’s fourth game of the season there is a decided advantage for the visitors. One thing I have taken note of less than a week in the season is that there has been a lot of sloppy play. On paper, New Jersey is the better team, and we get them at decent price tonight as the favorite.
When it comes to wagering on the Capitals, for me it’s all about Alexander Ovechkin. Ovechkin has 24 points in 19 home openers. His over ½ point prop sits at (-160) but I will target his shots on goals prop tonight.
Plays: Alexander Ovechkin Over 2.5 SOG (-166) – 1 unit
Alexander Ovechkin Over 3.5 SOG (+150) – ½ unit
New Jersey Devils ML (-142) – 1 unit
Chicago Blackhawks at Edmonton Oilers (-380, 6.5)
10 p.m. ET
The Oilers will look to rebound after getting embarrassed on home ice, 6-0 by the Winnipeg Jets to start the season. Tonight, they get a Blackhawks team on the back end of a back-to-back after a heart breaking 2-1 loss at Winnipeg. The Jets tied the game with just over a minute to go in the game and scored the winning goal less than a minute into overtime. Last season, Chicago was 2-9 on the back end of back-to-backs, losing by 2 or more goals eight times.
There is no question you are going to get a highly motivated Connor McDavid tonight. In nine of his last 13 games (regular season and playoffs) after being held off the scoresheet, McDavid has followed up with a multi-point game.
Plays: McDavid Over 1.5 points (-135) – 1 unit
Oilers -1.5 goals (-135) – 1 unit
