NHL Predictions – Saturday, October 19:
Friday night in the NHL saw all three betting favorites victorious. With the Winnipeg Jets (-410) and Colorado Avalanche (-275) cashing, NHL favorites (-200+) have won six straight and are now 10-5 for the season but are (-3.6 units) overall. One category that I would like to see a market created for is an “Over/Under” total games going to overtime each day. There has been at least one game going to overtime game for nine straight days. Starting with today, I am going to try and find individual games to play to a regulation draw. Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Vegas Golden Knights at Florida Panthers (-118, 6)
6:00 p.m. ET
After opening the season with three straight wins, the Golden Knights hit the road and lost games to Washington and Tampa. Vegas squandered a late 3-2 third-period lead, gave up two goals in the final 2:32, and lost 4-3 to the Lightning on Thursday. One constant with the Golden Knights through five games is goals coming early. All five games have seen the first-period total going Over 1.5 goals. The first-period Over trend has also been a staple of today’s opponent, the Florida Panthers. Panthers’ games have seen the first-period total cash in five of their first six games.
The game total going Over has also been profitable with both these teams. They are a combined 7-3-1 to the Over, with the “push” coming on a Vegas game total of six. Looking at the VSIN Betting Splits page, the Over is receiving 81% of the bets and 92% of the money.
For the fifth consecutive game, the Panthers will again be without star players Matthew Tkachuk and Sasha Barkov. Florida has gone 2-1-1 in their absence, with Sam Reinhart (three goals, four assists) and Anton Lundell (four goals) leading the way.
With Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev, Vegas has three of the NHL’s top six scorers. The trio have combined for eight goals and 27 points. Vegas goalie Adin Hill was on the ice this morning with healthy scratches, so it would appear Ilya Samsonov will get the start today.
NHL Predictions: Vegas/Florida 1st period Over 1.5 goals (-125) – 1 unit
Vegas/Florida Over 6 (-105) – 1 unit
Vegas ML (-102) – 1 unit
NY Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs (-130, 6)
7:00 p.m. ET
This is the marquee matchup of the night in the NHL. The Rangers have yet to lose in regulation (3-0-1), and the Leafs’ (3-1-0) only loss was a 1-0 blanking by the Montreal Canadiens.
The Blueshirts have benefited from a soft schedule to start the season with games against the Penguins, Utah HC and the Detroit Red Wings twice. In all three Rangers wins, they have covered the puck line and scored four or more goals. Scoring four or more goals in victories is commonplace for the Rangers. In the previous two seasons, they scored four or more goals in 72 of their 102 wins.
The Rangers Artemi Panarin (five goals, six assists) is tied for the lead league in points with 11, and he has 24 points in 22 career games against the Maple Leafs.
After losing their home opener against Montreal, the Maple Leafs have come back with three straight wins covering both the puck line (-1.5 goals) and their team total of Over 3.5 goals. Toronto has given up two goals or less in all four games this season, including a 4-2 win at New Jersey on the back end of a back-to-back.
After going the first three games without a goal, Auston Matthews scored his first goal of the season Wednesday against the LA Kings. In his career, Matthews has had six goals in nine games versus the Rangers’ expected starting goalie, Igor Shesterkin, to go along with 21 points in 21 career games versus the Rangers. Matthews’ linemate, Mitch Marner, has five goals in nine career games against Shesterkin and 20 points in 21 career games versus the Rangers.
NHL Predictions: Maple Leafs ML (-130) – 1 unit
Auston Matthews anytime goal (-115) – ½ unit
Matthews/Marner/Panarin each over ½ point (+.75) – ½ unit
Matthews/Marner each over ½ point (+.06) – ½ unit
Montreal Canadiens at NY Islanders (-225, 6)
7:00 p.m. ET
For the second time this week, Islanders head coach Patrick Roy faces one of his former teams. The Islanders were 6-2 winners at Colorado earlier in the week. Tonight, Roy faces the Canadiens for the third time in his brief Islanders tenure as head coach. The Islanders were 1-1 against the Canadiens with Roy behind the bench last season.
Montreal enters action tonight with injuries to their blueline. Kaiden Guhle is day-to-day with an upper-body injury and will not play. Mike Matheson left their game Thursday against the LA Kings with an upper-body injury and did not practice on Friday and his status for tonight remains unclear. The same can be said for forward Juraj Slafkovsky, who suffered a shoulder injury on Friday at practice.
After getting a win to start the season, the Habs have lost three of four and given up four goals or more in all three losses, as well as losing by two or more goals in each loss. Canadiens’ leading scorer, Cole Caufield, has four goals to start the season. He found the back of the net in each of the three games versus the Islanders in the 2023-24 season.
It’s well known that players put money “on the board” when facing a former team. I must believe head coach Patrick Roy is giving his team some type of extra incentive to find a way to win tonight’s game. The Islanders are a massive (-225) favorite tonight and that is a big price tag for a team that is just 1-3 to start the season. Last season, with Patrick Roy behind the bench, the Islanders were a perfect 5-0 as a favorite of (-200+). Ironically, the only one of the five victories that needed overtime was against these Montreal Canadiens. As I mentioned at the start of today’s column, betting favorites (-200+) in the NHL have won six straight.
NHL Predictions: Islanders in regulation (-130) – 1 unit
Cole Caufield anytime goal (+155) – ½ unit
Minnesota Wild (-185, 6.5) at Columbus Blue Jackets
7:00 p.m. ET
This will already be the second meeting of the season between these Central Division rivals. The Wild won a tough 3-2 game on home ice on October 10. Minnesota and Columbus are used to playing tight games against one another. The Wild have won eight of the last 10 meetings. Seven of the games were decided by one goal, and two of the last three needed overtime. Three of Minnesota’s four games this season have been one-goal games, and two of the four have gone past 60 minutes. The Jackets have yet to go to overtime this season, but their two losses were both one-goal games.
NHL Predictions: Blue Jackets +1.5 goals (-162) – ¼ unit
Blue Jackets/Wild Draw (+340) – ¼ unit
Note: Draw means the game will be decided in overtime or a shootout
