NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Here are today’s NHL predictions and best bets.
Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals (-130, 5.5)
7 p.m. ET
The Capitals’ Alexander Ovechkin will play game 1,500 of his career today with an opportunity to score the 900th goal of his career. Last night, the Great 8 put himself within one goal of this milestone in the Capitals’ 5-1 win over the Blue Jackets. One future ticket that I wish I had in my pocket was Ovi at 12/1 to score his 900th goal against the Senators. An Ovechkin anytime goal for today is at (+155). For his career, Ovi has 38 goals in 60 career games versus the Senators but only two goals in ten games vs. Ottawa’s projected starting goalie, Linus Ullmark.
The Caps’ Tom Wilson leads Washington in goals (five), points (11), and is second in assists (six). He has had success against Ullmark, scoring six goals on 24 shots in 11 career games versus the netminder. The last five games have seen three Caps players consistently find themselves on the scoresheet. Tom Wilson and John Carlson have registered points in the last five Washington games. Dylan Strome, who leads the team in assists (eight), has at least one assist in each of the last five games, and three times has picked up two “helpers.”
With Logan Thompson playing last night in Columbus, expect Charlie Lindgren to get the start tonight in Ottawa. Lindgren has faced the Sens twice in his career, coming up short both times, with Washington losing both games in overtime. Going past 60 minutes has been the norm when these two teams meet. The last four meetings and six of the last eight have needed extra time to decide a winner, with each team winning three times. Ottawa has gone to overtime in two of their last four games, and the Capitals have only gone past sixty minutes once this season.
The Senators have just three wins in eight games to start the season, and the offense without Brady Tkachuk has sputtered, scoring two goals or fewer in four of their eight games. Shane Pinto has five goals in eight games versus the Capitals in his career. Maybe this is the game that Ridly Greig gets going (just one goal this season). Greig has scored two goals in two games on just five shots against Charlie Lindgren.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Alex Ovechkin anytime goal (+155) – .10 units
Tom Wilson anytime goal (+220) – .10 units
Shane Pinto anytime goal (+230) – .10 units
Ridly Greig anytime goal (+470) – .10 units
John Carlson point/Dylan Strome assist (+179) – .10 units
Washington Capitals/Ottawa Senators regulation draw (+330) – .10 units
Montreal Canadiens at Vancouver Canucks (-115, 5.5)
7 p.m. ET
Vancouver returns home from a five-game road trip that saw them close out the road trip with a pair of losses (scoring one goal in each) after three victories to start the trip. The Canucks have been hit hard by injuries with the loss of Filip Chytil, Nils Hoglander, Teddy Blueger, Jonathan Lekkerimaki and Derek Forbort. Vancouver should get a boost from the return of Brock Boeser, who has missed the last two games for personal reasons.
I like to target (especially a goal scorer) a player who is making a return to the lineup after missing a few games, because it’s my rationale that he is going to come out firing from everywhere. Boeser had five and three shots on goal in his previous two games, and we are getting him Over 2.5 shots on goal today at a good “plus money” price. His linemate, Max Sasson, has goals in three of his last five games.
For the Canadiens, Josh Anderson has five goals in eight games against Canucks starting goalie, Thatcher Demko. It looks like Jakub Dobes will get the start for Montreal. I had been all over the opposition to score first with Dobes in goal, but it has failed to cash in his last two starts. Dobes is having a great start to the season, going 4-0 with a 1.47 goals-against average and a .950 save percentage.
As I mentioned off the top, this is the Canucks first game back after five games on the road, and it has been historically a bad spot for teams, the first home game after a road trip of four games or more. I’m taking Montreal on the Money Line.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Brock Boeser Over 2.5 shots on goal (+154) – .25 units
Max Sasson anytime goal (+600) – .10 units
Josh Anderson anytime goal (+600) – .10 units
Montreal Canadiens ML (-105) – 1 unit
Los Angeles Kings (-125, 5.5) at Nashville Predators
8 p.m. ET
The Los Angeles Kings are coming off a pair of overtime victories and are one of three teams this season without a win in regulation. LA is on the front end of a back-to-back as they play tomorrow in Chicago. Darcy Kuemper is expected to get the start for the Kings today. Anton Forsberg will go tomorrow in Chicago. Kuemper has four career shutouts in 15 games versus Nashville. The last three LA games have gone past sixty minutes, as have five of their last seven overall.
Nashville is coming off a 2-1 win over Vancouver on Thursday, putting a halt to a four-game losing streak. It marked the sixth time in their eight games to start the season that they have scored two goals or fewer. Six of the last seven meetings between the two teams have had a combined five goals or fewer. The teams have split their last 10 meetings. Prior to that, the Preds had won nine of 10 against the Kings. Nashville announced earlier on Saturday that they will be without their top defenseman, Roman Josi, listed out week-to-week with an upper-body injury.
Quinton Byfield enters Saturday’s matchup with six points in his last five games. He has goals in back-to-back games against the Predators and has eight points (five goals, three assists) in 10 career matchups against Nashville. With his overtime goal Thursday night in Dallas, Adrian Kempe became the first player in Kings history to score the game-winner in overtime in consecutive contests. He has points in three straight overall.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Los Angeles Kings ML (-125) – 1 unit
Adrian Kempe anytime goal +180 – .10 units
Adrian Kempe/Quinton Byfield each Over ½ point – .25 units
Edmonton Oilers (-180,6) at Seattle Kraken
10 p.m. ET
The Oilers are coming off a wild 6-5 win over the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday. They erased a 5-3 third-period deficit with three unanswered goals, including Vasily Podkolzin’s game-winner with less than two to play in regulation. The Kraken are coming off an impressive 3-0 shutout of the Winnipeg Jets as they closed out their six-game road trip (2-2-2) on a winning note. Now, Seattle returns home, where they are 2-0 and outscoring the opposition 5-2. The Kraken have given up one goal or fewer in three of their four wins, but they have given up four or more goals in each of their four losses.
Edmonton is coming off back-to-back wins. The six goals they scored against the Canadiens featured six different goal scorers and was the first time they scored more than three goals this season. Connor McDavid picked up three assists in the win. His 10 for the season is just one off the league lead. McDavid’s only goal this season came in the Oilers’ 3-2 overtime win at Ottawa. Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins lead Edmonton with five goals. The “Nuge” has a power play point in back-to-back games. Jake Walman has points in three consecutive games this season and eight of 10 going back to last season. Mattias Ekholm is on a three-game point streak (all assists), but I am content to play only his point prop at “plus money.”
Seattle had lost nine straight to the Oilers before snapping that losing streak with a win last March. Edmonton scored four or more goals in eight of the nine wins, and eight of the last 10 meetings have had six or more goals (five times they scored seven or more). This game fits the mold of a “Malinsky Special,” where you bet against a team (Seattle) playing their first home game after a road trip of at least four games. The Kraken’s Jaden Schwartz has 20 goals in 35 games versus the Oilers and has four goals in nine games against both Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner. He has also scored in each of the Kraken’s last two games.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Jake Walman Over ½ point (+144) – .10 units
Mattias Ekholm Over ½ point (+134) – .10 units
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over ½ power play point (+210) – .10 units
Jaden Schwartz anytime goal (+290) – .10 units
Edmonton Oilers/Seattle Kraken Over 5.5 (-142) – 1.5 units
Edmonton Oilers in regulation (-120)– 1 unit
