NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Sunday, April 20:
Here are Sunday’s NHL predictions for the opening round’s first games:
Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs
7 p.m. ET
Series Price:
Toronto Maple Leafs -200
Ottawa Senators +165
Game One Odds: Maple Leafs (-150, 5.5)
For the first time in 21 years, the Battle of Ontario will take place as the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs battle not only for provincial bragging rights but also for a spot in the Stanley Cup playoffs’ second round. Maple Leafs forward Steven Lorentz remembers that last playoff matchup quite well. “I was there in my Leafs pyjamas,” Lorentz said with a grin. “I remember going nuts in my house.”
The Maple Leafs are hoping their past playoff success against Ottawa continues, winning the four previous playoff series. On the other hand, the Senators can draw upon their regular-season success against Toronto. Ottawa won all three regular-season meetings versus the Leafs this season and six of the last seven. The Sens gave up just three goals in the three victories this season. Even with the Senators sweeping all three games from Toronto in the regular season, the Maple Leafs are a two-to-one favorite to win the series.
This will be Toronto’s ninth consecutive year making the playoffs. They have just one series win to show for their efforts. The pressure is on this Toronto team not just to win this series but, at the very least, advance to the Stanley Cup Final, and the Ottawa players sense it. “To be totally honest, I feel like Toronto is feeling more pressure than us right now, for sure,” Jake Sanderson told Sportsnet.ca at practice on Saturday. “To be the underdog, I don’t want to say it’s nice or whatnot, but yeah, it just takes a little bit of pressure off, and we can just go and play. And not really have anything to lose.”
The Senators are making their first trip to the postseason since 2017. It also marks the first time Ottawa Captain, Brady Tkachuk, will be playing playoff hockey. If the recent 4 Nations tournament this past February is any indication, Tkachuk, who scored three goals in the tournament, can raise his game to the next level. There is an expression I have heard (can’t remember who said it) that describes the difference between successful regular season and playoff players: There are players who get there (to the playoffs) and there are others who get you through (the playoffs). Tkachuk happens to fall into both categories. The jury is still out on Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner of the Maple Leafs. I am reminded that Matthews has four game-winning goals in the playoffs, the most in franchise history. Marner, coming off a 100-point regular season, has the third-most playoff assists in franchise history.
I love my player props, and there are a couple of players on each side that I will mention before the series gets started. Matthew Knies had 29 goals for Toronto this season, plays on the top line and is on the number one power play. His style of game and the willingness to go to the “dirty areas” is well suited for the playoffs. I like Knies to score at least three goals in this series. If you believe the Leafs are a true Stanley Cup contender, I will sprinkle some money on Knies for the Conn Smythe trophy (Playoff MVP). Auston Matthews has torched Ottawa goalie Linus Ullmark over the years, scoring 12 goals in the 11 games he has faced him.
On the Ottawa side, Claude Giroux has 57 points in 52 games versus the Maple Leafs and 81 points in 95 career playoff games. Tim Stutzle has 11 goals and 24 points in 23 games against the Maple Leafs. Defenseman Thomas Chabot had three assists in three games against Toronto this season and 20 points in 26 career games. Lastly, David Perron has not had much success against the Leafs in his career, but he does have three goals in five games (one this season) against Toronto goalie Anthony Stolarz. In his last trip to the playoffs (2021-22), he had nine goals in 12 games.
Game 1 Predictions:
David Perron anytime goal +460 – .20 units
Claude Giroux Over ½ point +200 – .20 units
Thomas Chabot Over ½ assist +210 – .20 units
Tim Stutzle anytime goal +260 – .20 units
Matthew Knies anytime goal +260 – .20 units
Auston Matthews anytime goal +135 – .20 units
Regulation Draw +330 – .15 units
Chris Tanev block shots Over 2.5 +110 – .50 units
Series plays:
Series to go six games +200 – .25 units
Series to go seven games +200 – .25 units
Matthew Knies 3+ goals +170 – .25 units
Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights
10 p.m. ET
Series Odds:
Vegas Golden Knights -235
Minnesota Wild +190
Game One Odds: Vegas (-190, 5.5)
The Vegas Golden Knights were arguably the quietest 110-point team in recent years. With much of the focus this season on the Winnipeg Jets and Washington Capitals, many hockey fans didn’t pay much attention to what the Knights accomplished this season.
Jack Eichel had an MVP-type season for the Knights, becoming the first player to reach and surpass the 90-point mark in franchise history, and he did it in just 77 games. Pavel Dorofeyev had a breakthrough season, scoring a team-leading 35 goals. His seven game winners led Vegas, and his 13 power play goals were just one fewer than Tomas Hertl, who had 14. Hertl was second in goals with 32. Vegas’ 274 goals were fifth overall in the league.
What makes the Golden Knights so hard to play against? Their top forwards, Eichel, Stone, and Hertl, are all defensively responsible. Vegas is four lines deep and their blueline with Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Theodore, Noah Hanifin, and shot blocking machine, Brayden McNabb highlight a defensive group that combines offensive capabilities along with being one of the best defensive teams in the league. While goalie Adin Hill won’t be one of the finalists for the Vezina trophy (the NHL’s best goalie), he does have his name on the Stanley Cup and plays his best when the games matter most. Hill was solid down the stretch in the regular season, going 8-2 with a 2.18 GAA.
The Minnesota Wild enter the playoffs healthy, and that is something they could not say for much of the season. Kirill Kaprizov played just 41 games and still put up 25 goals and 56 points. Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek both returned to play the final four regular-season games for the Wild. Both returned to the lineup on April 9th, combining for six goals (Erkisson Ek -4, Kaprizov – 2) and helped the Wild earn a playoff spot on the final day of the regular season.
The Wild have dropped the last five meetings to Vegas dating back to last season and haven’t won a playoff series since 2015. There is no question the Wild is a different team with Kaprizov in the lineup, as Minnesota won 20 of their first 28 games. All signs are pointing to defenseman Zeev Buium, the No. 12 pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, out of the University of Denver. Buium was taking a spot on the Wild’s top power play in practice. He would be the 152nd player to play his first-ever NHL game in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I wouldn’t expect to see former Golden Knight, Marc-Andre Fleury, in this series unless the Wild are blown out in a game or number one goalie, Filip Gustavsson suffers an injury.
Game 1 Predictions:
Pavel Dorofeyev anytime goal +230 – .20 units
Tomas Hertl anytime goal +270 – .20 units
Vegas to win in Regulation (-125) – 1 unit
Jack Eichel Over 1.5 points (+196) – .20 units
Zeev Buium Over ½ point (+186) – .20 units
Brayden McNabb Over 2.5 blocks +180 – .20 units
Jacob Middleton Over 2.5 blocks +130 – .20 units
Series Predictions:
Vegas -1.5 games (-114) – 1 unit
Jack Eichel to lead the series in goals +600 – ¼ unit
Pavel Dorofeyev to lead the series in goals +900 – ¼ unit
