NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Here are today’s NHL predictions and best bets.
Montreal Canadiens (20-12-5) at Tampa Bay Lightning (21-13-3)
Canadiens (+125) at Lightning (-150) – Total 6.5 (Under, -125)
5 p.m. ET
The Lightning are coming off a 4-2 victory over their bitter rival, the Florida Panthers, on Saturday that featured 45 penalties (156 minutes) and 16 combined power plays (Florida 1/10, Tampa 0/6). At times, it seemed like more players were in the penalty box than on each team’s respective benches. One could excuse the Lightning today if they are just a little flat against a Montreal team that had the night off. The Bolts have lost each of their two previous games this season after playing the Panthers (6-2 Vancouver, 2-1 Los Angeles).
With Andrei Vasilevskiy playing last night, expect Jonas Johansson to start in goal for Tampa today. Johansson defeated the Canadiens earlier this season in Montreal in Tampa’s 6-1 victory over the Canadiens. Johansson has won three of his five career starts versus Montreal, but more recently, he has lost five of his last seven overall.
Jacob Fowler gets the call for Montreal. He has won three of his five starts for the Canadiens since getting called up from the minors. He has given up two or fewer goals in each of his three wins but four or more goals in his two losses. Each of the Canadiens’ last five wins has been by two or more goals, and Tampa has lost by two goals or more in three of Johansson’s last four losses. Montreal’s Cole Caufield has four goals in five games versus Tampa goalie Jonas Johansson. Both teams are on 6-1 runs to the first period Over 1.5 goals.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Montreal Canadiens Money Line (+125) – .75 units
Montreal Canadiens -1.5 goals (+290) – .25 units
Cole Caufield anytime goal (+180) – .25 units
1st period Over 1.5 (-145) – .50 units
Montreal Canadiens 1st goal 1st period (+145) – .35
Montreal Canadiens 1st period Money Line (+118) – .35
Montreal Canadiens Team Total Over 2.5 (-142) – .35
NY Islanders (21-13-4) at Columbus Blue Jackets (15-15-6)
Islanders (+115) at Blue Jackets (-135) -Total 6 (Under, -115)
5 p.m. ET
The Islanders are coming off a 2-0 shutout of the Rangers on Saturday behind 27 saves from David Rittich. The Islanders get right back at it today as they visit Columbus to take on the Blue Jackets. With Ilya Sorokin on injured reserve, David Rittich is expected to start again today versus Columbus (Marcus Hogberg is the backup). He is 4-2-1 in his career against Columbus.
The Jackets will be without their best defenseman, Zach Werenski, for the second consecutive game. Werenski suffered a lower-body injury eight days ago in Anaheim. Columbus has just seven wins (7-6-3) in 16 home games, but when you go inside the numbers, their home betting splits tell an interesting story. Columbus is (0-7) when they are a home underdog, but they are (7-1) when they are the home favorite (one game was {-110} both sides). The Jackets have scored four or more goals in five of their seven home wins, and five of the seven wins have been by one goal. Three of the seven wins were decided in overtime, as well as their one loss as the home favorite.
With Werenski out of the lineup, Denton Mateychuk has been elevated to the top pair and top power play unit and earned an assist in each of the last two games. Mateychuk scored one of the two Columbus goals in the Blue Jackets’ 3-2 loss to the Islanders earlier this season. Also collecting points (assists) in that loss for Columbus were Adam Fantilli and Sean Monahan. Fantilli has points in three straight and four of his last six games against the Islanders, and Monahan has points in three straight and five of his last seven. Mason Marchment, acquired just before the Christmas break from Seattle, has three goals in the two games since joining his new team.
A couple of Islanders players on my card for today. Bo Horvat has 23 points in 24 games against Columbus. Matt Barzal has 23 points in 25 games against the Blue Jackets. The one way to extract value is to parlay the two-for-one point each. Anders Lee cashed his point prop for us yesterday and extended his point streak to five games, and is still available at plus money to pick up a point.
Columbus opened as a (-145) home favorite, and we are seeing a “10 cent” line move to the Islanders as the Jackets are now (-135) and the total going from 5.5 juiced to the Under to now 5.5 (Over, -140) and as high as 6.5 in some spots. The question for the Islanders today is will they have an emotional letdown after blanking their biggest rival, the Rangers, on Saturday? I say yes, they will have an emotional letdown, and combined with the Jackets’ success in the role as a home favorite, I am on Columbus.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Columbus Blue Jackets (-135) – 1 unit
Fanitlli/Monahan point parlay (+178) – .15 units
Horvat/Barzal point parlay (+133) – .15 units
Denton Mateychuk anytime goal (+700) – .05 units
Mason Marchment Over ½ point (+110) – .10 units
