NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Sunday, February 23:
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Anaheim Ducks at Detroit Red Wings (-190, 5.5)
6 p.m. ET
Both the Ducks and Red Wings are on the second half of a back-to-back. It’s a much shorter turn around time for Anaheim who played last night in Boston while the Wings had a day game at home. The Ducks are coming off a 3-2 overtime win and have won four straight (giving up 2 goals or less in all four) and six of their last overall giving up two or fewer goals in six of the eight games. From my colleague Steve Makinen and his column earlier this week he notes that Anaheim is 19-4 to the Under following a win.
Playing games on consecutive days has not gone well for Detroit this season. The Red Wings are (1-6) on the front end of back to backs following their loss Saturday to Minnesota and are (1-5) on the back end of back to backs. In each of their five losses in the second half of back-to-back games, Detroit has given up three or more goals. Tie that into Anaheim’s success when scoring three or more goals (22-0-2) and that leads me to playing not only the Ducks Team Total over 2.5 but also leaning to Anaheim on the Money Line.
A couple of player props that have caught my attention for this game. Anaheim’s Trevor Zegras who scored a goal in last night’s win over Boston has five goals in six games versus Detroit and three goals in two games versus expected Wings starting goalie, Alex Lyon. Detroit’s Alex DeBrincat has four goals in four games versus Ducks goalie, Lukas Dostal.
NHL Predictions: Ducks TT over 2.5 (-102) – ¾ unit
Ducks ML (+160) – ¼ unit
Ducks/Wings Under 5.5 – ½ unit
Trevor Zegras anytime goal (+360) – ¼ unit
Alex DeBrincat anytime goal (+175) – ¼ unit
Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning (-265, 6.5)
6 p.m. ET
The Seattle Kraken are fresh off a 2-1 win on Saturday over the defending Stanley Cup Champion, Florida Panthers. Seattle will try to extend their winning streak to three games but to do so, they will need to win for the first time this season in the second half of a back-to-back. The Kraken have lost all 8 games in this spot, losing by two goals or more in seven of the eight defeats. They have given up four or more goals in 5 of the last 6 in the back end of the back to backs. Seattle is also 8-15 this season off a win.
We could see the NHL debut for Seattle goalie, Ales Stezka. Stezka has taken over the backup duties from Phillip Grubauer, now with the Kraken’s AHL team, the Coachella Valley Firebirds. In his two seasons with Coachella Valley, Stezka is 27-18-10 with a sub three goals against average.
The Lightning went into the break winners of four straight overall. Tampa has won six of the seven meetings with Seatle including a 5-1 win over Seattle back on December 14. The Bolts have scored four or more goals in five of their six wins over the Kraken and have scored four or more goals in 25 of their 31 wins this season. Tampa’s Jake Guentzel has scored five goals in six games versus Seattle.
NHL Predictions: Tampa TT over 3.5 (-135) – 1 unit
Tampa in Regulation (-165) – 1 unit
Jake Guentzel anytime goal (+125) – ¼ unit
New Jersey Devils (-125, 5.5) at Nashville Predators
6 p.m. ET
It’s going to be a battle of the back ups when the Devils and Predators meet today in Nashville. Both teams played yesterday, and the Devils are just (1-7) on the second half of back to backs. The Preds are just (3-6) in the second half of back to backs.
NHL Prediction: New Jersey TT over 3.5 (+130) – 1 unit
Colorado Avalanche (-140, 5.5) at St. Louis Blues
6 p.m. ET
Both Colorado and St. Louis are on the second half of a back-to-back and both teams are coming off losses. Since the beginning of November, the Avalanche are 14-3 following a loss and when it comes to playing games on Sunday, Colorado is 6-0 (stat courtesy @SteveMakinen). The Avs are 5-2 this season on the back end of back to backs. The first period Over is 6-1 in these games and five of the seven games have had a combined six goals or more. When it comes to first period Overs (1.5 goals), the Blues are on a 10-2 run to the Over.
Colorado has dominated this match up, winning eight of the last 10 between the two teams and only three of the last 10 having a combined six or more goals. I am sure anyone who bet the Over 6 goals when these two teams met at the end of January is still cursing their loss after Colorado scored four times in the first period in a game that ended, 5-0 Avalanche.
NHL Predictions: 1st Period Over 1.5 (-130) – 1 unit
Avalanche ML (-148) – 1 unit
Toronto Maple Leafs (-265, 5.5) at Chicago Blackhawks
7 p.m. ET
For just the fourth time in their last 23 games the Blackhawks first period did not come through. But hopefully, if you are following me on Twitter (X), you would have seen I jumped on the 2nd period GIFT (Goal in the 1st 10 mins) and the 2nd period Over 1.5 (parlay) which came through in the opening minutes of the middle frame and with the double down bet we made some money. This will be a standard wager for me, that in any game where the first period goes under the total (1.5 goals), I will be on the 2nd period goal 1st10 minutes, parlayed with the Over 1.5 goals. You must go back to December 12,14 for the last time the Blackhawks had consecutive games with the first period Over 1.5, not cashing.
I do think the Blackhawks are worth a pizza money bet on the Money Line.
NHL Predictions: Blackhawks 1st period Over 1.5 (-135) – 1 unit
Blackhawks ML (+215) – ¼ unit
Dallas Stars (-130, 5.5) at NY Islanders
7:30 p.m. ET
The Stars are coming off a hard fought 4-2 win at New Jersey on Saturday and with Casey DeSmith getting the win yesterday, the Stars will turn to Jake Oettinger tonight. Dallas is 14-7 as the road favorite and 5-2 on the second half of back to backs. It’s a cheap Money Line price for a good Dallas team. The Islanders entered the break, winning eight of their last 11 games but did drop three of their last four. Though I do like the Stars to win today, I will jump on a couple of Islanders players for goal props. Anthony Duclair has four goals in seven games versus Jake Oettinger. Brock Nelson has three goals in five games against Oettinger.
Prior to their only meeting this season, the previous three games had gone to Overtime as well as three of the last four in New York.
NHL Predictions: Dallas Stars ML (-1300 – 1 unit
Regulation Draw (+300) – ¼ unit
Anthony Duclair anytime goal (+390) – ¼ unit
Brock Nelson anytime goal (+310) – ¼ unit
San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames (-240, 6.5)
8 p.m. ET
The Sharks went into the break dropping 10 of 11 games, surrendering four or more goals in nine of the losses. Alexander Georgiev gets the start for San Jose and as I have documented throughout the season, first periods have been a nightmare for Georgiev who is 5-21-4 in the opening 20 minutes this season.
NHL Predictions: Flames 1st period -1/2 goal (+110) – 1 unit
Flames TT over 3.5 (-125) – 1 unit
