NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Sunday, January 12:
Here are today’s NHL predictions:
Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings (-155, 5.5)
3 p.m. ET
The Seattle Kraken scored six unanswered goals on Saturday to erase a 2-0 deficit and rallied to beat the Buffalo Sabres, 6-2. The win for Seattle snapped a four-game losing streak. The Kraken need to string together victories if they are going to get themselves a playoff spot. One of the problems for Seattle today is that they are 0-6 on the second half of back-to-backs this season. With Joey Daccord starting Saturday in Buffalo, expect Phillipp Grubauer to be between the pipes for the Kraken today against Detroit. Grubauer has lost his last four starts, and the opposition has scored four goals or more in three of the four losses.
The Wings have won six straight since losing their first game with Todd McLellan as their new bench boss. Detroit’s core four up front of Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond sparked the Red Wings run, combining for 17 goals (all with 4 or more goals) and 40 points.
There are two trends for this game that have caught my eye. Detroit has cashed the first period Over 1.5 goals in 11 of their last 12 games and Seattle has cashed the 1st period Over in six straight games. Wings games have had a goal scored in the first 10 minutes in seven straight games.
Each of the six previous meetings between the Kraken and Red Wings had six or more combined goals and the last three meetings and four of the last six have gone past 60 minutes.
NHL Predictions: Regulation Draw (+310) – ¼ unit
Kraken/Red Wings Goal 1st 10 minutes (-145) – 1 unit
Kraken/Red Wings 1st Period Over 1.5 goals (-125) – 1 unit
Kraken/Red Wings Over 5.5 (-130) – 1 unit
Dallas Stars (-140, 6) at Ottawa Senators
5 p.m. ET
The Dallas Stars extended their winning streak to seven games on Saturday, outlasting the Montreal Canadiens with a 2-1 shootout victory at the Bell Centre. Dallas will be searching for win number eight today in Ottawa against a Senators team that they have lost the seven meetings to in Canada’s nation’s capital. Ottawa is coming off a 5-0 blanking of the Penguins on Saturday. Both teams are on the second half of back-to-backs and playing their third games in four days.
The Under has cashed in three straight and seven of the last eight meetings in Ottawa. Both Dallas and Ottawa have been big “Under” teams this season. Dallas is 24-13-4 to the Under (5 of last 6 games Under) and the Sens are 23-12-4 (5 goals or less in 7 of last 8, 6 goals or less in all 8). Five of Ottawa’s seven games on the back end of back-to-backs have had a combined five goals or less. Two of three Stars games on the second half of back-to-backs have had fewer than five combined goals and the other game landed on six.
The goaltending matchup today is Casey DeSmith versus Anton Forsberg. DeSmith has won his last four decisions for Dallas and given up two goals or less in each win. He is 4-4 lifetime against Ottawa with a pair of shutouts. Anton Forsberg has just one win in five starts against Dallas but does have a sub-three goals against average in the five games. The lone victory came last February in Ottawa when he stopped 14 of 15 shots in a 4-1 Senators win.
Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen has three goals in three games against Forsberg. Two Ottawa players on my radar are Josh Norris and Drake Batherson. Batherson was good to us yesterday, scoring against the Penguins. I am targeting him again today as he has three goals in five games against DeSmith. His linemate Josh Norris has had even more success, with five goals in five games against the Dallas netminder.
NHL Predictions: Josh Norris anytime goal (+300) – ¼ unit
Drake Batherson anytime goal (+280) – ¼ unit
Miro Heiskanen anytime goal (+500) – ¼ unit
Ottawa Senators ML (+120) – 1 unit
Stars/Sens Under 6 (-115) – 1 unit
Tampa Bay Lightning (-150, 6.5) at Pittsburgh Penguins
5 p.m. ET
Both the Lightning and Penguins are in a back-to-back and three games in four days, with both teams coming off a loss on Saturday. The Pens were blanked on Saturday and are in our system play of a goal to be scored in the first 10, first period Over 1.5 goals, and we are going to add the full game going Over the total. I have passed most times on the full game going Over because the success rate (39-31-1) of 56% has provided a negative ROI. I do like it today, as Pittsburgh (6-2) and Tampa (3-1) are a combined 9-3 on the second half of back-to-backs. In their three previous games following a shutout, the Penguins are (2-1) to the 1st period Over 1.5, goals in the first 10 minutes and full game Over are perfect three for three.
Tampa’s Brayden Point scored a pair of goals in the Bolts 3-2 overtime win over Pittsburgh in November. Point has 10 goals in 21 games versus the Penguins and five goals in 10 games versus Tristan Jarry (expected starting goalie).
NHL Predictions: Brayden Point anytime goal (+125) – ¼ unit
Lightning/Penguins Goal 1st 10 minutes (-165) – 1.5 units
Lightning/Penguins 1st Period Over 1.5 (-155) – 1.5 units
Lightning/Penguins Over 6.5 (-125) – 1.5 units
Anaheim Ducks at Carolina Hurricanes (-535, 6.5)
5 p.m. ET
Anaheim is coming off a 6-0 pounding at the hands of the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday and has been outscored 12-2 in their past two games. So maybe it should come as no surprise that they are a huge underdog (-535) at Carolina today when they face the Hurricanes. First, with Anaheim being blanked on Saturday, we have our second systems play of the day (goal 1st 10, 1st period Over 1.5). The Ducks have won three of the first against Carolina and three of the last four meetings in Raleigh, with two of the wins coming in overtime. Three of the Ducks’ last five wins over Carolina have needed extra time. Shop around if you want to play Anaheim. Circa had the best price at the last check (+415).
Carolina’s Jordan Staal has been on a heater with five goals and eight points in the last three games. Anaheim’s Ryan Strome and Jacob Trouba have two goals in three games against Canes projected starting goalie, Pyotr Kochetkov. Ducks’ defenseman Jackson LaCombe has points in seven of his last nine games.
NHL Predictions: Anaheim Ducks ML (+415) – ¼ unit
Ducks/Canes Goal 1st 10 (-165) – 1.5 units
Ducks/Canes 1st Period Over 1.5 (-145) – 1.5 units
Jordan Staal anytime goal (+350) – ¼ unit
Jordan Stall over ½ assist (+220) – ¼ unit
Ryan Strome anytime goal (+470) – ¼ unit
Jacob Trouba anytime goal (+1600) – ¼ unit
Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights (-190, 6)
8 p.m. ET
Another game where we have both teams on a back-to-back and three games in four days, and for Vegas, it’s also four games in six days. Despite a rash of injuries to key players, the Wild have won five of their last six games. Minnesota is still without leading scorer Kirill Kaprizov along with defensemen, Brock Faber and Jared Spurgeon. Minnesota is (5-2) this season on the front end of back-to-backs but (2-4) on the back end. This is the second time Minnesota will face Vegas on the back end of a back-to-back this season, losing the previous meeting, 3-2, with rookie Jesper Wallstedt in goal. Filip Gustavsson should get the start tonight against Vegas, with Marc-Andre Fleury playing last night in the Wild’s 3-1 win over San Jose. Gustavsson has given up 10 goals in his last two games and has just one win in four career starts against the Golden Knights. Minnesota has lost three straight and eight of the last 10 meetings to the Golden Knights.
Vegas is coming off back-to-back losses at home for the second time this season. Finding the back of the net for the VGK has been challenging of late, scoring just one goal in the two losses. Adin Hill has been confirmed as the starting goalie for Vegas tonight. Hill has struggled against the Wild with a record of (1-4). Pavel Dorofeyev has two goals in two games versus Minnesota goalie Filip Gustavsson.
NHL Predictions: Vegas in Regulation (-115) – 2 units
Pavel Dorofeyev anytime goal (+260) – ¼ unit
