NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Sunday, May 11
Here are today’s NHL predictions:
Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars (-135, 5.5)
Game Three (Series tied at 1)
4:30 p.m. ET
The Winnipeg Jets evened their playoff series against the Dallas Stars at a game apiece on Friday night as Connor Hellebuyck earned his fourth career playoff shutout. The issue facing Hellebuyck now that the series shifts to Dallas is his road futility. The Jets goalie has just one win in his last 10 road playoff games with a goals against average of 5.40.
Hellebuyck was pulled from all three road games in round one against the St. Louis Blues as the Jets were outscored 17-5. In the Jets and Hellebuyck’s last nine road losses, they have lost eight times by three or more goals. Is it possible for Hellebuyck to build off the momentum from his Game Two shutout? It’s possible, but until he shows that he has solved his issues away from home, I see no reason to get behind the Jets’ netminder for today’s Game Three.
Combine Hellebuyck’s road playoff woes with the fact that Dallas is the only team in this year’s postseason yet to lose consecutive games. The Stars are 3-1 at home in the playoffs and scored four or more goals in each of their last three home games. We also have our system play from the regular season, with the Stars coming off a shutout, we will go with the full game Over the total. The system play is 3-0 in this year’s postseason.
With Dallas coming off a loss, I will be on the Stars to score the first goal of the game (30-16, 65%) as well as scoring a goal in the first period (32-14, 70%). The numbers I have referenced are league-wide statistics for teams coming off a loss in this year’s playoffs.
On to the player props. The Jets cooled off Mikko Rantanen and all the Stars in Game One, but Rantanen still has factored in on the last 12 Dallas Stars goals. I like Rantanen for an anytime goal and to record at least two points tonight. Wyatt Johnston has three goals and six points in four home playoff games. One Jets player prop that I will be on is an Adam Lowry goal. A reliable playoff performer, Lowry scored in Game Two, and at a big plus price, he is always worth a pizza money bet.
Game Three Predictions:
Stars 1st goal of the game/Stars ML (+123) – .50 units
Stars 1st period Over ½ goal/Stars ML (+117) – .25 units
Jets/Stars Over 5.5 (-110) – 1 unit
Mikko Rantanen ATG (+145) – .10 units
Mikko Rantanen Over 1.5 pts (+200) – .10 units
Roope Hintz ATG (+230) – .10 units
Stars Team Total Over 3 (-115) – 2 units
Stars Team Total Over 3.5 (+130) – 1 unit
Thomas Harley Over ½ point (+100) – .20 units
Wyatt Johnston Over ½ assist (+176) – .10 units
Wyatt Johnston ATG (+230) – .10 units
Adam Lowry ATG (+550) – .10 units
Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers (-200, 6)
Series: Toronto leads 2-1
7 p.m. ET
The Florida Panthers will look to even this series at two games apiece, as the home team has won each of the first three games of the series. All three games have flown over the total. If Sergei Bobrovsky (.840 save percentage in the series) and Joseph Woll (.869 save percentage in the series) continue to be average, there is no reason why we don’t see a combined seven goals or more to get us over the total (six at worst for a push).
The opening 20 minutes have seen both the Over 1.5 goals and both teams to score props cash in all three games. With the Maple Leafs coming off a loss, I will play them to score a goal in the first period, so we will have three instant gratification plays to start the game.
For some reason, the sportsbooks have the feeling that the Panthers are going to put the clamps on the Maple Leafs’ offense as they are offering the Toronto team total of 2.5 (-118). Maybe it’s a gift for Mother’s Day, as the Leafs have scored three or more goals in all but one playoff game this season.
On to the player props. If he didn’t have enough incentive to want to have a good game, it’s Panthers forward Brad Marchand’s birthday today. The overtime hero of game three is riding a three-game points streak (two goals, five assists) and is fourth all-time in playoff points versus the Maple Leafs (12 goals, 21 assists in 31 games). Defenseman Aaron Ekblad has had a point in each of the two games he has played in this series and has seven points in seven career playoff games against Toronto.
On the Maple Leafs side, Auston Matthews (32) and John Tavares (29) rank one and two in shots on goal for the Leafs. Matthews has had at least three shots on goal in six straight and eight of nine, while Tavares has had three or more shots on goal in six of his last nine games. Max Pacioretty has five points in the series, and Morgan Rielly has four. William Nylander (six) and Matthews Knies (five – tied for second) are at the top of the board when it comes to finding the back of the net for Toronto.
Game Three Predictions:
Leafs to score a 1st Period Over ½ goal (-135) – .50 units
Leafs/Panthers 1st Period Over 1.5 goals (-140) – .50 units
Leafs/Panthers 1st Period BTTS (+158) – .50 units
Leafs/Panthers Over 6 (-120) – 1 unit
Brad Marchand anytime goal (+260) – .10 units
Brad Marchand Over ½ assist (+220) – .10 units
Aaron Ekblad Over ½ assist (+150) – .10 units
Matthew Knies anytime goal (+270) – .10 units
Max Pacioretty Over ½ point (+136) – .10 units
William Nylander anytime goal (+170) – .10 units
Morgan Rielly Over ½ point (+164) – .10 units
Matthews/Tavares each Over 2.5 SOG (+191) – .25 units
