Florida Panthers (-130, 5.5) at Toronto Maple Leafs
Series tied 3-3
7:30 p.m. ET
In life, we always have a chance to rewrite our narrative. For Maple Leaf players, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares, tonight is their opportunity to do just that: change the perception of the hockey world that they can win the big game.
Most had written off the Maple Leafs heading into Game Six of this series on Friday night after getting steamrolled 6-1 on home ice in Game Five, but they shocked many, blanking the Florida Panthers 2-0 to force tonight’s Game Seven.
History has not been kind to the Maple Leafs in these winner-takes-all games, having lost six in a row. Conversely, Panthers coach Paul Maurice has won five consecutive Game Sevens in his coaching career. This is the fifth consecutive postseason the Panthers are playing a Game Seven, having won three of the past four times when facing elimination.
More for history buffs: We have had two playoff series this year that have been taken to the limit. The Dallas Stars defeated the Colorado Avalanche 4-2, and the Winnipeg Jets had that miraculous comeback, scoring the tying goal with 1.6 seconds remaining in regulation before defeating the St. Louis Blues 4-3 in overtime. Six of the last seven contests that have gone to Game Seven have been decided by just one goal. The other was the Stars’ 4-2 win over the Avalanche. Five of the seven games have had a combined six goals or fewer, and four of them have had five goals or fewer.
Toronto goalie Joseph Woll is 4-1 in his last five elimination games. Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has won his last two game sevens with a sub-two goals against average. I believe goals will be tough to come by, so I am reluctant to play a lot of goals and point props today. Here are some players on both sides that are worth a look.
Florida’s Carter Verhaeghe has five goals in 11 career playoff games against the Maple Leafs and has two goals and four points in his two career game sevens. Brad Marchand averages a point a game against Toronto in the playoffs and has seven points (three goals, four assists) in his 12-career loser-goes-home games. Toronto’s William Nylander has a flair for the dramatic. He has gone four games without a goal, but it was Willy last season who scored all three of his playoff goals against Boston in Games Six and Seven. Matthew Knies, injured in Game Six, will be in the lineup for Game Seven. He is second on the team with five playoff goals, just one behind Nylander.
With the loser of this game having their season ending, I will look to the blocked shots props. The Leafs’ Chris Tanev, Simon Benoit and Morgan Rielly have no issue with “eating pucks.” The trio has a combined 59 blocked shots in the series. All have had at least four blocked shots in a game once against the Panthers, and Benoit and Tanev have had multiple games of at least five blocked shots.
Game Seven Predictions:
(parlay) Florida +2.5/Toronto +2.5/ Under 6.5 (-129) – 2 units (Available at FanDuel and Bet365)
Brad Marchand Over ½ assist (+155) – .20 units
Brad Marchand anytime goal (+350) – .20 units
Carter Verhaeghe anytime goal (+280) – .20 units
Carter Verhaeghe Over ½ assist (+182) – .20 units
(parlay) Tanev Over 2.5 blocks/Benoit Over 2.5 blocks (+167) – 1 unit
Morgan Rielly Over 2.5 blocks (+135) – .50 units
