NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Sunday, May 4
My two favorite words when it comes to sports? “Game Seven”. That is what we have tonight in Winnipeg as the Jets host their first-ever Game 7 in franchise history against the Blues.
St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets (-180, 5)
7 p.m. ET
It’s my two favorite words when it comes to sports, “Game Seven”. That is what we have tonight in Winnipeg as the Jets host their first ever game seven in franchise history. So many storylines for this win-or-go-home game. Can Connor Hellebuyck rise to the occasion and look more like the goalie who is a finalist for the league MVP (regular season) or will his playoff struggles continue?
Can the Jets overcome the injury to their franchise playoff leader in goals, Mark Scheifele, who was injured in Game 5 and will miss his second consecutive game?
Winnipeg has just one win in the seven playoff games that Scheifele has not been able to play. In those six losses, Winnipeg has scored two goals or less in each defeat. The last time Hellebuyck went up against Blues goalie Jordan Binnington in a winner-take-all game was the 4 Nations tournament in February. Binnington came out on top, as Canada defeated Team USA in the championship game.
Let’s get into some Stanley Cup Playoffs Game 7 specifics. The first period has gone Under in eight of the last nine Game 7s and the sportsbooks have gotten wise, as the Under 1.5 goals is at -150. Seven of the last nine have had six or fewer total goals. In six of those, we have had five or fewer goals. In fact, six times we have had four goals or less.
Only once in the last nine Game 7s have we had a margin of victory greater than 2 goals (Devils 4 Rangers 0, 2022-23) and we have had seven of the games decided by one goal.
On to the player props. The Blues Cam Fowler has points in all six games of the series and leads the Blues with 10 points (2 goals, 8 assists), Colton Parayko has points in four consecutive games (1 goal, 4 assists) and Jimmy Snuggerud and Jordan Kyrou have been “money” at recording at least two shots on a goal a game.
On the Jets side, I am going to tread lightly because of their lack of production without Scheifele. Kyle Connor has nine goals in his last 11 playoff games (goals in 8 of them) and captain Adam Lowry is second on the team with two goals and has been a solid playoff performer.
Game 7 Predictions:
- Jets +2.5 goals/Blues +2.5 goals/Under 6.5 goals (-135) – .50 units
- Jets +2.5 goals/Blues +2.5 goals/Over 3.5 goals (-117) – .50 units
- Blues ML +150 – .25 units
- Jets Empty net goal +250 – .15 units
- Blues Empty net goal +400 – .15 units
- Jets -1.5 goals +158 – .15 units
- Blues -1.5 goals +350 – .15 units
- Kyle Connor ATG +165 – .15 units
- Adam Lowry ATG +550 – .15 units
- Jimmy Snuggerud/Jordan Kyrou Over 1.5 SOG parlay +162 – .25 units
- Cam Fowler ATG +850 – .15 units
- Cam Fowler Over ½ assist +132 – .25 units
- Colton Parayko Over ½ assist +176 – .15 units
