NHL Predictions – Sunday, November 3:
Before I get to the Sunday NHL games some takeaways from Saturday on the ice. I was joking with a friend of mine who is a big Maple Leafs fan and I texted him saying, “do the Leafs hate Craig Berube?” You would think that the Leafs would have no problem getting up for their coach’s former team, but they have lost both meetings in a span of 10 days and were outscored, 9-3.
Sandwiched around a win over the Vegas Golden Knights, the Los Angeles Kings lost to the San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks. Kings coach Jim Hiller keeps saying it’s tough to win in this league. If it’s tough to win against teams ranked 32nd and 30th overall respectively, then you are not a good team. What I did like was cashing the Blackhawks/Kings regulation draw at +330. Losing our Kings moneyline play, not so good.
Last week Sidney Crosby talked about how he was disappointed in his play. In typical Crosby fashion, he followed it up with four goals and seven points, including a pair of goals in Saturday’s 3-1 victory over Montreal.
The Vegas Golden Knights continue to enjoy home cooking as they improved to 8-0 on home ice with a 4-3 overtime versus the Utah HC. The Knights have scored four goals or more and gone over the full game total in all but one home game. Vegas is off to Edmonton to play the Oilers on Wednesday and have nine of their next 11 games on the road. The Knights have lost all four road games (0-3-1) to start the season.
Seattle Kraken at Boston Bruins (-180, 5.5)
5 p.m. ET
The Bruins opened as a -165 home favorite and bettors have jumped on the B’s betting them up to anywhere from -175 to -180 with 84% of the bets and 91% of the money on Boston.
Both Seattle and Boston are in a similar situation playing the back end of a back-to-back, as well as three games in four days and four games in six days. The home team this season has won six straight, 10 of 11 and 13 of the last 15 games when facing a team on a back-to-back. One other trend that also comes into play for this match up is playing both the first period and game total over. Seattle is coming off a 3-0 shutout last night in Ottawa. Teams off a shutout have gone 16-3 to the first period over and 13-5-1 for the full game total.
One concern for me in wagering on the Bruins today is the early season struggles of Boston goalie Jeremy Swayman in addition to his poor numbers against the Kraken. Swayman has just three wins in eight games this season. He is 1-1 with 4.08 GAA and an .879 save percentage lifetime versus the Kraken. The Kraken will start Massachusetts native, Joey Daccord. Daccord has four of the five Seattle wins this season with a 2.85 GAA and .912 save percentage.
In addition to the earlier trends that I referenced, I also like a couple of David Pastrnak prop plays today. Pasta has cashed his shots on goal prop (Over 3.5) in four of his last six games overall. In his last five games versus Seattle, he has 4, 8, 5, 5 and 6 shots on goal. The eight shots on goal came against Joey Daccord with one of them finding the back of the net. Overall, Pasta has seven goals in six games against the Kraken.
NHL Predictions: Kraken/Bruins 1st period Over 1.5 (-130) – 2 units
Kraken/Bruins Over 5.5 (-115) – 1 unit
David Pastrnak Over 3.5 SOG (-155) – 1 unit
David Pastrnak anytime goal (+100) – 1 unit
Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes (-270, 6)
5 p.m. ET
It’s a Metropolitan Division battle between the Caps and Canes in Raleigh today with the (8-2) Hurricanes hosting the (7-2) Capitals yet Carolina is a massive -270 home favorite. Washington is on the back end of a back-to-back and is playing three games in four days and four games in six days, while Carolina has been off since their 8-2 pounding of the Boston Bruins on Halloween night.
Alexander Ovechkin has recorded back-to-back three-point games and has 50 goals and 104 points in 90 games versus the Canes. Ovechkin is never shy to shoot the puck, he has 430 career shots on goal versus Carolina, an average of just under five shots per game.
The Canes have won five straight and outscored the opposition 23-10. Carolina has scored four goals or more in six of their seven wins this season and covered the puck line in five of those victories.
Carolina’s Martin Necas is off to a hot start with five goals and 15 points. Necas is riding a five-game point streak (12 points) and has had five multi point games in his last seven. He has 14 points in 14 career games versus the Capitals. Teammate Andrei Svechnikov has been a shot on goal machine. He has had four or more shots on goal in five of his last six games.
The home team this season has won six straight, 10 of 11 and 13 of the last 15 games when facing a team on a back-to-back.
NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes TT over 3.5 (-140) – 1 unit
Martin Necas Over 1.5 points (+180) – 1 unit
Andrei Svechnikov Over 3.5 SOG (+120) – 1 unit
Alexander Ovechkin Over 2.5 SOG (-140) – 1 unit
Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild (-115, 6)
6 p.m. ET
This line is way too fishy. The Maple Leafs are coming off a game last night in St. Louis and playing their third game in four days. The Wild have been off since Friday’s 5-3 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning and have won six of their last seven games.
This game opened with the Wild being a small (-115) home favorite despite being at home, and playing much better hockey than a Maple Leafs team that has been inconsistent to start the season. It seems that the betting community is not buying the Wild either. Minnesota is taking 61% of the bets but just 43% of the money. I do wonder if the history between the two teams is responsible for bettors not jumping on the Wild. Toronto has won five straight and eight of the last 10 versus Minnesota. The Leafs Auston Matthews has 11 goals in 12 games against the Wild. Defenseman Morgan Reilly has chipped in 18 points in 19 games versus Minnesota. Toronto has won all six of their games on the puck line.
Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov who is tied atop the scoring race with seven goals and 21 points and seven straight multi point games has just one goal and four points in six career games versus the Maple Leafs.
NHL Predictions: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+225) – 1 unit
Auston Matthews anytime goal (-120) – 1 unit
Morgan Reilly Over ½ point (+114) – 1 unit
