NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Thursday, December 5:
Sorry for the late release of the plays for today, but while I am still offering the Cheesecake Factory menu of plays, I spent the morning taking a deeper dive into the numbers. It’s been a rough couple of days. Expecting a big turnaround tonight. Enjoy the nine games on ice, and let’s all make a profit. Here are tonight’s NHL predictions.
Florida Panthers (-165, 5.5) at Philadelphia Flyers
7:00 p.m. ET
The Florida Panthers continue their road swing through Pennsylvania. Florida rallied from down 4-1 to the Penguins in the third period to force overtime before Bryan Rust scored the game-winner in the extra session to give the Penguins the 5-4 victory. The win snapped the Panthers’ three-game winning streak, but they did cash their team total of Over 3.5 goals for the fifth time in the past six games and for the 16th time this season. Florida defeated the Flyers 4-3 in a shootout back on November 9 in the Sunshine State. The Flyers have won four of six between the two teams and two of three in Philadelphia.
The Flyers have won three straight and four of their last five. Three of Philadelphia’s wins during this run have been by identical 3-2 overtime scores, with rookie sensation Matvei Michkov scoring two of the OT goals.
There are two live trends in this game. The Panthers are a road favorite coming off a loss, facing a home team off a win. Per VSIN’s own Josh Applebaum, favorites this season in this spot are 20-6. The second trend pertains to the Panthers on the road where the first-period Over has cashed in nine of their last 11 games away from home. One issue that has me backing off the Panthers on the Money Line is that it appears goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is still away from the team as he and his wife await the birth of their child, so Spencer Knight will once again get the call between the pipes. Knight gave up five goals on just 16 shots to Pittsburgh on Tuesday.
NHL Predictions: Florida Panthers TT over 3.5 (-110) – 1 unit
Florida Panthers/Philadelphia Flyers 1st period Over 1.5 (-130) – 1 unit
Florida Panthers/Philadelphia Flyers Over 6 (-110) – 1 unit
Florida Panthers/Philadelphia Flyers Regulation Draw (+350) – ¼ unit
Nashville Predators. (-135, 6) at Montreal Canadiens
7:00 p.m. ET
Former NHL coach Darryl Sutter called the NHL a 3-2 league, and the Nashville Predators are believers. They have lost four consecutive games (three ending in OT) by a 3-2 score and have lost five overall. Nashville played last night in Toronto and they are 1-3 this season in the second half of a back-to-back. More ugly numbers in Nashville. They have given up three or more goals in five straight and seven of the last eight games. Justus Annunen gets the start tonight and makes his Nashville debut. Annunen has given up three goals or more in five of his last six starts.
Montreal rookie Lane Hutson is tied for the team lead with 16 assists, and you can get him at plus money to get one assist.
NHL Predictions: Lane Hutson Over ½ assist (+130) – 1 unit
Montreal Canadiens TT over 2.5 (-150) – 1 unit
Colorado Avalanche at Carolina Hurricanes (-150, 6.5)
7:00 p.m. ET
Nathan MacKinnon started the Avs rally from down 4-0 in the first period and scored the tying goal as part of his nine shots on goal in Colorado’s come-from-behind 5-4 victory over the Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday. First periods have been an issue for the Avalanche who are winless in the opening 20 minutes in their last 13 games (0-10-3). Recently acquired Scott Wedgewood made his Avalanche debut, replacing Alexander Georgiev, who gave up four goals on eight shots in the first twelve minutes of the game. Wedgewood stopped all 22 shots that came his way and earned the victory. I would anticipate the Avalanche to give Wedgewood a run as the starting goalie tonight in Carolina as the Canes make their second stop on a five-game roadie. The Avs are hoping Wedgewood can stabilize their goaltending issues. Colorado has given up 4+ goals in five of their last six games and 15 times in 26 games this season.
First periods for the Canes have been a high-scoring event. Nine of their 12 home games have featured at least two goals, and in eight of those of games, both teams have scored.
Carolina has struggled against Colorado, losing five of the last six meetings and has given up four or more goals in four of the five losses. Overall, the Hurricanes are amid their first three-game losing streak of the season and lost five of its last seven. Coincidentally, Carolina went through a four-game losing streak last season right around this same time (Dec 4-9).
NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes 1st period ML (-145) – 1 unit
Carolina Hurricanes/Colorado Avalanche 1st period Over 1.5 (-150) – 1 unit
Carolina Hurricanes/Colorado Avalanche 1st period BTTS (+140) – 1 unit
Carolina Hurricanes/Colorado Avalanche Over 6.5 (-110) – 1 unit
Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators (-160, 6.5)
7:00 p.m. ET
The Red Wings came to Ottawa after dropping three straight and back-to-back in overtime, and they have now lost five consecutive one-goal games. In addition, five of the last 11 Detroit games have gone past 60 minutes.
The Sens have lost seven of their last nine games and have given up at least three goals in all nine games. The Red Wings could be what Ottawa needs to get back in the win column. The Senators have dominated this matchup over the past two years winning three straight (two in overtime) and eight of the last 10. They have scored 4+ goals in seven of the eight wins and five or more six times. Ottawa has played five straight games going Over the total.
NHL Predictions: Detroit Red Wings TT over 2.5 (-140) – 1 unit
Detroit Red Wings/Ottawa Senators Over 6 (-120) – 1 unit
Lucas Raymond anytime goal (+185) – 1/2 unit
Drake Batherson Over ½ assist (+120) – 1 unit
Seattle Kraken at New York Islanders (-140, 5.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
If you have been a daily reader of the column, you have likely recognized that the Islanders’ regulation draw has been a standard play. The Isles are well on their way to being the league leader in games that go beyond 60 minutes for the second consecutive season. If you wagered $100 on every New York Islanders game to go to Overtime, you would be +15.50 units. Conversely, if you bet to win $100 when they were the favorite and risked $100 each game they were the underdog, you would be down -16.35 units this season. Tonight, though, will be one of those rare occasions where I will also have a Money Line play on the Islanders as they fall into one of our systems plays. The Isles are coming off a loss to Montreal on Tuesday, and teams this season are 7-1 in their next game after losing to the Canadiens.
NHL Predictions: New York Islanders ML (-130) – 1 unit
New York Islanders/Seattle Kraken Regulation Draw (+300) – ½ unit
Columbus Blue Jackets at Edmonton Oilers (-270, 6.5)
9:00 p.m. ET
A matchup of two teams that were both kept off the goal sheet in their previous games. Columbus was blanked 3-0 by Calgary on Tuesday, while the Oilers came up a goal short in their 1-0 loss to the Golden Knights in Vegas. It was the fourth time this season the Oilers have been blanked. Only the Utah HC (five) have been shut out more times this season. It’s the third time this season that teams facing off against each other were blanked in their previous game and the second time Edmonton has been involved. In the two previous situations, the Oilers’ offense responded, helping to cash the first period Over 1.5, goal in the first 10 minutes, and full game total Over.
You may remember the last time these two teams met, Connor McDavid injured his ankle 37 seconds into the contest, and Columbus cruised to a 6-1 thumping of the Oilers. The Jackets have won the last two meetings and five of the last six over Edmonton, but the Oilers have won four of the last five at Rogers Place.
NHL Predictions: Columbus Blue Jackets/Edmonton Oilers 1st per Over 1.5 (-154) – 1 unit
Note: Over 2 (+115) is also available
Columbus Blue Jackets/Edmonton Oilers Goal in the first 10 minutes (-180) –1 unit
Columbus Blue Jackets/Edmonton Oilers Over 6.5 (-130) – 1 unit
Sean Monahan anytime goal (+330) – ½ unit
St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames (-130, 5.5)
9:00 p.m. ET
The St. Louis Blues are enjoying life under new head coach Jim Montgomery, having won three of the four games under “Monty” and coming away with a point in an overtime loss to the Flyers in the lone defeat. The Blues have outscored teams 16-5 under Montgomery and covered the Puck Line in all three victories.
The Calgary Flames are coming off an emotional 3-0 win over Columbus on Tuesday as the Flames and Blue Jackets paid tribute to their former teammate, Johnny Gaudreau. It was a night where a lot of tears were shed, with Gaudreau’s parents were in attendance. It would be human nature if the Flames players had an emotional letdown tonight after all that took place on Tuesday.
That all being said, Calgary owns one of the league’s best home records (10-3-0), and only the Toronto Maple Leafs (12) have more victories on home ice. Calgary has won six consecutive games on home ice. The Flames are 5-0 this season as the home betting favorite and 5-3 as a home underdog. The visiting St. Louis Blues are 6-6 as a road underdog this season but 3-0 in this spot under Jim Montgomery. The Blues have dominated the head-to-head matchup, winning four straight in Calgary and eight of ten overall. Scoring has been an issue for the Flames as they have scored three or fewer goals 21 times this season if your sportsbook counts shootout goals as part of the team total and 23 times if shootout goals don’t factor into the team total.
NHL Predictions: St. Louis Blues ML (+110) – 1 unit
Calgary Flames TT under 3.5 (-180) – 1 unit
Jordan Kyrou anytime goal (+185) – ½ unit
Dylan Holloway anytime goal (+330) – ½ unit
