Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes (-130, 5.5)
Florida leads series 1-0
8 p.m. ET
The Carolina Hurricanes’ run of futility in the third round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs has reached thirteen games following their 5-2 loss to Florida on Tuesday. It is a bit of a head-scratcher that the Canes have lost 13 consecutive games in round three.
There are nine current members of the Canes who were on the roster when Carolina was swept away by Florida two seasons ago. Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin, Jordan Staal, Andrei Svechnikov and Jordan Martinook are the only players who were part of the 2018-19 team dispatched in four games by Boston. When you look back at when this streak started in 2008-09, head coach Rod Brind’Amour was a player for the Canes, and there was a Staal on the team. It was Jordan’s brother, Eric.
The loss for Carolina in Game One was their first home loss of this year’s playoffs. Florida improved their road record in the postseason to 6-2. The Panthers have scored a league-high 38 goals on the road, with 17 coming in the past three games. I am aware that Carolina is 2-0 in this year’s playoffs following a loss, but until they can find a way to win a game in the third round of the playoffs, I am not interested in getting behind the Canes to win tonight. Carolina is 1-6 in its last seven Game Twos when losing Game One of the playoff series.
Where I will back Carolina is to score a first-period goal and parlay that prop with Florida to score in the second period and get a “plus money” price. Must give my buddy @pearlosnhlpow for turning me on to this approach to attack period team totals. Teams coming off a loss in the playoffs have scored a first-period goal in 35 of the 58 games (35-23). The Florida Panthers’ 17 second-period goals in the postseason are number one in the NHL. They have found the back of the net in the middle period in seven of their last 10 games.
Here is a breakdown of the rest of my prop plays for tonight. I am not sure why I have yet to play Carolina goalie, Freddie Andersen’s saves prop to go under. The Hurricanes have yet to surrender more than 21 shots on goal in a game in the playoffs. I am jumping on Andersen Under 23.5 saves. The Hurricanes fired 30 shots at Sergei Bobrovsky in game one and are averaging just over 33 shots a game in the playoffs (second most in the postseason). I am on Bobrovsky’s prop of Over 26.5 saves.
There are not too many times a prop play jumps out at me like this one did. The Panthers’ Eetu Luostarinen leads the team in scoring (four goals, nine assists), has goals in back-to-back games and points in seven of his last 10 games. His anytime goal prop (+850) and his Over ½ assist prop (+260) are too good to pass up, so I won’t.
I was on Sam Bennet’s shots on goal prop (Over 2.5) in Game One, and I am back on it for Game Two. Bennett’s 40 shots on goal (five in Game One vs. Carolina) in the playoffs are second on the team to Sam Reinhart’s 41. Bennett had four or more shots on goal in two of the three regular-season meetings and was held to one shot on goal in the other. When these teams last met in the playoffs, Bennett had 19 shots on goal in the four-game sweep, recording three or more shots on goal (6, 3, 4, 6) in each game. The Panthers’ fourth line of Jonah Gadjovich, AJ Greer and Tomas Nosek has been a part of the scoring in three of the last four games, combining for three goals. Nosek is the only one of the three without a goal, but he does have a pair of assists. All three players are at 14/1 to score a goal, and I will wager on each player. All we need is one of the trio to score, and we make some money. I have not found a sportsbook that offers a point or an assist prop for any of the three. If anyone finds one, please let me know.
Evan Rodrigues plays on the Panthers’ top line and number two power play unit. He has three assists in his last two games and five assists over his last four games. The books have slightly adjusted the price on his assist prop from (+300) to (+255). We are still getting excellent value.
For now, the only other Hurricanes prop play outside of the Freddie Andersen save prop, I will add a Seth Jarvis Over ½ point and parlay that with a Matthew Tkachuk point. Jarvis has points in five straight games (two goals, five assists) and Tkachuk has a five-game point streak against Carolina in the playoffs.
Game Two Predictions:
Freddie Andersen Under 23.5 saves (-125) – .50 unit
Sergei Bobrovsky Over 26.5 saves (+105) – .50 units
Sam Bennett Over 2.5 shots on goal (-105) – .50 units
Florida Panthers Team Total Over 2.5 (-110) – 1 unit
Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 goals (+186) – .20 units
Florida Panthers -1.5 goals (+280) – .20 units
Evan Rodrigues Over ½ assist (+255) – .25 units
Seth Jarvis/Matthew Tkachuk each Over ½ point (+140) – .25 units
Eetu Luostarinen anytime goal (+850) – .10 units
Eetu Luostarinen Over ½ assist (+260) – .10 units
Jonah Gadjovich anytime goal (+1400) – .10 units
AJ Greer anytime goal (+1400) – .10 units
Tomas Nosek anytime goal (+1400) – .10 units
Canes 1st period Over ½ goal/Panthers 2nd period Over ½ goal (+136) – .50 units
