NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Thursday, May 8
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Carolina Hurricanes (-170, 5.5) at Washington Capitals
Game Two: Hurricanes lead series 1-0
7 p.m. ET
The Carolina Hurricanes dominated the opening game of this series, outshooting Washington, 33-14, outchancing the Caps, 94-34, and out-hitting them, 44-31. The trademark of the Carolina Hurricanes is that every shot is a good shot. Even with those lopsided numbers, the game was scoreless after the opening twenty minutes, and it was Carolina who trailed (1-0) for a span of 26:25 (early second period to midway third period) before tying the game with just under 10 minutes to play in the third period and then winning in overtime.
This game opened with Carolina as a small (-130) road favorite and has been bet up to (-170). When you look at the VSIN Betting Splits page, the Hurricanes are taking in 14% of the bets, but 86% of the money (at Circa). I would understand this if there was an injury to Washington goalie, Logan Thompson or Alexander Ovechkin, but both are good to go for tonight. I feel the Hurricanes are being overvalued, especially at this price.
Since the Capitals are coming off a loss, I will be playing them to score the first goal of the game (in regulation) as well as scoring a goal in the first period. Teams coming off a playoff loss have scored the first goal in the following game 26 out of 40 times. They have scored a first-period goal in 28 of the 40 games. Because of the juicy price (-215) for Vegas to score a goal in the first period, I will also parlay the Capitals to score in the first period with a Golden Knights first-period goal.
Game Two Predictions:
Capitals to score the 1st goal (+105) – 1 unit
Capitals 1st Period Over ½ goal (-134) – .50 units
Capitals 1st Period Over ½ goal/Knights 1st Period Over ½ goal parlay (+155) – .50 units
Capitals ML +145 – .50 units
Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights (-135, 6.5)
Game Two: Edmonton leads series 1-0
9:30 p.m. ET
The Edmonton Oilers have won five straight games, and all five have been from the come-from-behind variety, an NHL Playoffs record. After quickly falling behind 2-0 in game one to the Knights, the Oilers scored four unanswered goals as the Knights lost for the first time in 27 playoff games when having a multi-goal lead. Vegas was outshot 12-1 in the second period and had just seven shots on goal over the final 40 minutes.
VSIN’s own, Stormy (Buonantony) Normandt, who took a puck off the elbow in a role as the rinkside reporter for ESPN, had as many second-period saves as the Oilers goalie, Calvin Pickard. Vegas was without both defenseman, Alex Pietrangelo and leading goal scorer in the regular season, Pavel Dorofeyev for Game One. Both players were on the ice this morning for the team’s optional skate.
I am going to hold off on most of my Vegas player props until closer to game time when we have a clearer idea if both players are making their return to the lineup. At practice on Wednesday, Bruce Cassidy shuffled his line combinations and moved Ivan Barbashev to the top line as William Karlsson goes back to his role as the third line center. That all could change if Pavel Dorofeyev, who was not at practice yesterday, is good to go for tonight.
With Vegas losing Game One, I will be on my system play (see game above for system details) for Vegas to score the first goal of the game, and I will be parlaying Vegas to score in the first period tied to Washington to score in the first period. Knights’ defenseman Shea Theodore has two goals in the playoffs and both of those have been the first goal of the game. Digging a little deeper, four of his five points in the playoffs have come on the power play.
I will also be on the first period Over 1.5 goals. All seven Vegas playoff games have had two or more goals scored in the opening 20 minutes.
A couple of Oilers props for me. As long as Corey Perry is getting minutes alongside Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, I will be on his anytime goal prop. It was cashed for us on Tuesday, and I am on board again tonight. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is on a five-game point streak (six assists. FanDuel (-111) to register a point tonight was the best available price I came across.
Game Two Predictions:
Vegas to score the 1st goal of the game (-125) – 1 unitVegas/Washington each to score a 1st Period goal (+161)
Oilers/Knights 1st Period Over 1.5 (-152) – 1 unit
Shea Theodore anytime goal (+650) – .20 units
Shea Theodore 1st goal of the game (+3500) – .10 units
Shea Theodore Over ½ power play point (+210) – .10 units
Corey Perry anytime goal (+300) – .20 units
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over ½ point (-110) – .20 units
