NHL Predictions – Thursday, November 14:
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning (-118; 6.5)
7:00 p.m. ET
The Winnipeg Jets will look to continue their magical 15-1 run to start the season tonight in Tampa. The Lightning were victim number 11 on the Jets win list, losing 7-4 at Winnipeg on November 3. This line opened with both teams at (-110, and we are seeing a line move to Tampa (-118) despite the Lightning taking only 27% bets and 39% of the money, indicating “sharp money” coming in on Tampa.
As my friend and VSIN colleague Josh Applebaum would say, “This is fishy.” The Jets have lost just once in 16 games, and the Lightning are in the thralls of a four-game losing streak. It’s hard for me to make a case for Tampa other than to say the Winnipeg Jets will not go 81-1 this season. They will lose again, right? Maybe Jets players who arrived in Tampa late Monday night have been enjoying their time at the pool and the beach. It’s a 40-degree temperature swing from Winnipeg to Tampa right now.
Tampa will again be without their number one center, Brayden Point, who was injured in the game against Winnipeg and will miss his third consecutive game. The Lightning have scored just three goals in their last two games. It should come as no surprise that Nikita Kucherov has earned a point (one goal, two assists) on all three goals. With 23 points, the Bolts leading scorer is on a 5-game point streak (three goals, six assists) and has 13 goals in 21 games versus the Jets. Shop around on a Kucherov anytime goal. FanDuel and Bet365 are both offering plus money. Others like DraftKings had a Kucherov goal at (-110). Keep an eye on this line. If Tampa stays the favorite, up to -125, I will play the Lightning. If the line moves back to Winnipeg, play the Jets.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning (-118) – 2 units (as long as they stay the favorite)
Nikita Kucherov anytime goal (+120) – ½ unit
Montreal Canadiens at Minnesota Wild (-270, 6)
8:00 p.m. ET
The Minnesota Wild have had four days to stew about a 2-1 overtime loss Sunday at Chicago. Tonight’s opponent, the Montreal Canadiens, could be just what the Wild need to get back to their winning ways. Minnesota has dominated Montreal over the years, winning nine of the last 10 meetings and eight of those in regulation. Go back even further, the Wild have won 17 of 20 versus the Canadiens.
To say Montreal’s defense and goaltending is leaky would be an understatement. The Habs have given up four goals or more in 11 of their 16 games and rank last in the league in goals against at 4.16/game. The Wild rank seventh in offense, averaging 3.53 goals per game and have scored four or more goals in five of their last six victories. Minnesota has covered the Puck Line in eight of their 10 wins, while the Canadiens have lost nine of their 11 games by two or more goals.
Kirill Kaprizov leads the Wild in scoring with 28 points and is second in the league, trailing only Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon (33 points). Kaprizov has recorded two or more points in 10 of the Wild’s 15 games this season. He has 11 points in six games versus the Canadiens.
Matt Boldy leads the Wild with 54 shots on goal and has cashed his shots on goal prop in six of his last nine games. The Canadiens have given up at least four shots on goal to an opposing forward in six of their last eight games.
NHL Predictions: Minnesota Wild TT over 3.5 (-150) – 1 unit
Minnesota Wild -1.5 goals (-105) – 1 unit
Matt Boldy Over 3.5 SOG (+115) – 1 unit
Kirill Kaprizov over 1.5 points (+105) – 1 unit
Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars (-180, 6)
8:00 p.m. ET
The Dallas Stars opened as a (-165) home favorite, and this line has been quickly bet up to Dallas (-180). The Stars defeated the Bruins, 5-2 in Boston last month, snapping a four-game losing streak to the B’s. Boston has played better of late, winning four of their last six games, and they have held the opposition to two goals or less in three of the wins. That included a pair of shutouts. The Bruins lost a key member of their blueline when Hampus Lindholm suffered a lower-body injury and will be out for “weeks,” according to head coach Jim Montgomery.
The Stars last played on Monday, a 7-1 drubbing of the Pittsburgh Penguins, erupting for six goals in the opening period. Dallas has won two of their last three games since losing both games to Florida in the Global Series. Dallas head coach Pete DeBoer said it best when analyzing their 9-5 record. “We’ve beaten the teams we should beat, but when we’ve had opportunities to play the top teams in the league, we haven’t risen to the occasion.” I wouldn’t classify the Bruins as a top team, though I am sure they would like to avenge the loss earlier this season to Dallas.
Interesting betting note on Dallas. They are 6-0 this season as a favorite of (-165+) and have covered the Puck Line five times. The Stars are 1-2 as a favorite of (-150) or less.
NHL Predictions: Dallas Stars ML (-180) – ¾ unit
Dallas Stars -1.5 goals (+150) – ¼ unit
Nashville Predators at Edmonton Oilers (-180, 6.5)
9:00 p.m. ET
A little over a month into the NHL season and the Predators and Oilers are meeting for the third and final time, with the Oilers continuing their dominance over Nashville. They’ve won both meetings this season and eight of the last 10. Seven of the eight wins by the Oilers have been by two goals or more.
It should be a milestone night for Connor McDavid who is sitting on 999 career points. How perfect is it that McDavid is the 99th player to have 999 career points? After being held off the scoresheet against the Golden Knights in his return from a lower-body injury, Connor has seven points (two goals, five assists) in his last two games, and there is no reason why the scoring should slow down against the Predators. McDavid has 41 points (12 goals, 29 assists) in 23 games versus Nashville.
Right there with McDavid is his running mate, Leon Draisaitl. Draisaitl scored twice against the Preds in their last meeting and has 27 goals and 19 assists in 28 games versus Nashville, including 11 goals in 12 games versus expected starter Juuse Saros. In addition, Leon is coming off back-to-back multi-point games and has recorded at least two points in six of his last eight games. Defenseman Darnell Nurse has a respectable 12 points in 23 games versus Nashville, but for whatever reason, he has been a volume shot-taker against the Predators. Nurse has cashed his shots on goal prop of Over 2.5 in six of the last seven games against the Preds.
Nashville has dropped four of their last five games, scoring two goals or less in each of the losses.
Filip Forsberg has scored in both games against the Oilers this season and has five goals in seven games against Edmonton goalie Calvin Pickard, who will start tonight and has been the starter for the two previous games against Nashville.
NHL Predictions: Connor McDavid over 1.5 points (-120) – 1 unit
Leon Draisaitl over 1.5 points (+155) – 1 unit
Leon Draisaitl anytime goal (+135) – 1 unit
Darnell Nurse over 2.5 SOG (+125) – 1 unit
Forsberg anytime goal (+130) – 1 unit
Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals (+135) – 1 unit
