NHL Predictions – Thursday, November 21:
I love nights like this in the NHL. Lock myself in the “Man Cave,” sit back and watch 10 NHL games. We have some great matchups highlighted by Kirill Kaprizov and the Wild visiting Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers to close out the evening. In Washington, the Capitals play their first game without Alexander Ovechkin, the Bruins play their first game under interim head coach Joe Sacco, and it’s a Metro Division clash in New Jersey with Carolina squaring off against the Devils. Let’s look at tonight’s NHL predictions.
Colorado Avalanche (-140; 6.5) at Washington Capitals
7:00 p.m. ET
The Washington Capitals begin life without Alexander Ovechkin when they host the Colorado Avalanche tonight. Ovechkin is out week-to-week with what is being described as a lower leg injury following a collision with Utah’s Jack McBain on Sunday. Ovi had already scored his league-leading 14th and 15th goals of the season in the Utah game to close to within 27 goals of Wayne Gretzky’s NHL record of 894 prior to getting injured. Sliding into Ovechkin’s spot on the top line alongside Dylan Strome and Ilya Protas, will be Andrew Mangiapane. Mangiapane has four goals and eight points this season. He has shown the ability to flourish playing higher up in the lineup. In the 2021-22 season in Calgary, he scored 35 goals playing with Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk.
These teams met six days ago in Colorado, and Washington came away with a convincing 5-2 victory, limiting the Avalanche to just 19 shots on goal. The Caps held Avs superstar Nathan MacKinnon without a point or a shot on goal. It was the first time in 78 games that MacKinnon had failed to record a point and a shot on goal in the same game. Tonight is the second of four stops on the road for Colorado, who next head to Florida for games against the Lightning and Panthers. Colorado is 4-3 on the road this season but 3-1 as a road favorite as opposed to 0-3 as a road underdog.
NHL Prediction: Colorado Avalanche ML (-140) – 1 unit
Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators (-140; 6.5)
7:00 p.m. ET
The Golden Knights continue to struggle away from the friendly confines of T-Mobile Arena. Last night’s 3-0 loss to Toronto was their sixth road defeat in nine games. Tonight’s game in Ottawa could be just what the Knights need to get back in the win column. Vegas has won 11 of the 13 meetings with the Sens, including a 6-4 win at the end of October on home ice. It was a crushing defeat for Ottawa, who had leads of 3-2 and 4-3 before giving up three goals in the final 3:11.
Ottawa opened as a small home favorite (-120) but have been bet up to (-160). Why the big line move? More often than not, the initial line in NHL games is based on the number one goalie getting the start. In the case of Vegas, that would be Adin Hill. Hill started last night against the Maple Leafs, so it will be Ilya Samsonov between the pipes tonight for Vegas. Samsonov has lost his last two starts, giving up a combined 10 goals, but he has won five of his seven starts against Ottawa. With the Knights being blanked last night in Toronto, our system play is live.
NHL Predictions: Vegas ML (+135) – 1 unit
Vegas/Ottawa Over 6.5 (-105) – 1 unit
Vegas/Ottawa Goal 1st 10 (Yes) (-166) – 1 unit
Vegas/Ottawa 1st period Over 1.5 (-145) – 1 unit
Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils (-120; 6.5)
7:00 p.m. ET
Tonight is a battle between two of the best in the Metropolitan Division as the Carolina will look to extend their winning streak to four games tonight in Jersey. The Canes have outscored their opponents 12-2 in the three games, scoring four goals in each of the wins. The Hurricanes have scored four goals or more in 13 of their 14 victories this season (14 times overall) including their 4-2 win over the Devils last month.
If the Devils are going to take that next step this season, they will have to find a way to beat the Hurricanes. The Devils have lost six straight to Carolina (regular season and playoffs), scoring two goals or less in all six defeats. They have lost four straight to Carolina if you don’t include the playoffs. Tonight is as good an opportunity as ever for New Jersey to get a win against the Hurricanes, as the Devils have a big rest advantage. Carolina is on the second half of a back-to-back and playing their fourth game in six days. New Jersey has been off since losing to Tampa on November 16. The Devis have won five of their last seven games, but both losses, including their previous game, were shutouts. Our system plays of next game following a shutout are live.
With Pyotr Kochetkov starting against the Flyers last night, it will be Spencer Martin facing the Devils. Martin is coming off his first career shutout, stopping all 24 shots in a 4-0 win over Ottawa. For his career, Martin has won only 22 of his 56 decisions with a goals against average of 3.49 and a save percentage of .887. Expect Jacob Markstrom to get the start for New Jersey.
NHL Prediction: New Jersey ML (-140) – 1 unit
New Jersey/Carolina 1st period over 1.5 (-125) – 1 unit
New Jersey/Carolina goal in 1st 10 – Yes (-154) – 1 unit
New Jersey/Carolina over 6.5 (+100) – 1 unit
Tampa Bay Lightning (-170, 6.5) at Columbus Blue Jackets
7:00 p.m. ET
The Tampa Bay Lightning, winners of three straight, are playing their best hockey of the season. Tampa won back-to-back games over Winnipeg and New Jersey, outscoring the two teams, 8-1, and are coming off a 3-2 overtime win at Pittsburgh on Tuesday, erasing a 2-0 third-period deficit.
On Tuesday, Columbus handed Boston a 5-1 defeat in what was former Bruins coach Jim Montgomery’s final game behind the Boston bench. The Jackets have won two of their last three games, scoring a combined 11 goals in the wins.
Tampa has won eight of the last 10 meetings between the two teams, but the two losses were games played at Columbus. The Jackets Kirill Marchenko has five goals in five games against the Lightning. Five of the Jackets’ seven wins this season have come as a home underdog. Columbus is a (+150) home underdog in tonight’s game. Yes, I am building a case to take the Blue Jackets tonight. One last point on why Columbus is a live dog tonight. This could be looked at as a “sandwich” game for Tampa. I have already outlined their previous three games. After tonight, the Lightning face Dallas, Colorado and Washington. Overlooking a team like Columbus wouldn’t be out of the ordinary. As VSIN’s Josh Applebaum likes to say, this is a “Hazmat” play.
NHL Prediction: Columbus ML (+150) – ½ unit
Kirill Marchenko anytime goal (+220) – ½ unit
Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers (-160; 6)
9:00 p.m. ET
The Oilers return home after going 1-2 on their three-game road trip and losing defenseman Darnell Nurse for the next couple of games after Nurse suffered an upper-body injury following an illegal check to the head from the Maple Leafs, Ryan Reaves. For his efforts, Reaves was handed a five-game suspension. Edmonton is coming off a 5-2 win at Ottawa as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl led the way, each having three-point nights. Trying to win consecutive games for the fifth time this season is going to be tough, with the Minnesota Wild and the league’s second-leading scorer, Kirill Kaprizov coming to town.
Minnesota has won eight of the last 10 meetings between the two teams and scored four or more goals in seven of the eight wins. Kaprizov has one goal and 12 assists in nine games versus the Oilers. This season, he has been a menace to the home teams with nine multi-point games in his last 10 road games.
NHL Predictions: Minnesota Wild ML (+135) – 1 unit
Minnesota Wild/Edmonton Oilers Over 6 (-120) – 1 unit
Kirill Kaprizov over 1.5 points (+135) – 1 unit
