NHL Predictions – Thursday, November 7:
There are 12 games on the Thursday NHL schedule, and half of the favorites are priced at (-200+). We have two betting favorites that Over (-300). I can’t make a case for the Underdogs in any of these games, even though it’s unlikely that all six of these favorites will win out. The early trends of the NHL season point you to the favorite in many cases, so I have isolated some player props, team totals and Puck Line plays that are offering far better value. Of the 34 games, 22 have been decided by two or more goals, with the underdog winning six of those games. Two of the games had lines of (-110) on both sides, so we did not have a betting favorite or underdog. Here are tonight’s NHL predictions.
Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets (-140; 6.5)
8:00 pm. ET
It is the marquee game on this 12-game NHL card as the Avs and Jets meet for the first time since Colorado eliminated Winnipeg in five games in last year’s opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Jets made it 12 wins in 13 games on Tuesday night after blanking the Utah HC, 3-0. It was their fewest goals scored since beating the St. Louis Blues 3-2 for their sixth win of the season. The Jets have scored four or more goals in nine of their 13 games. The Jets (+32) goal differential is the best in the NHL. The New York Rangers are next up at (+20).
The Avs doubled up Seattle, 6-3 on Tuesday, thanks to a five-assist night from Nathan MacKinnon, who took over the scoring race with 25 points. Defenseman Cale Makar had a pair of assists before leaving the game with a lower-body injury. Makar is a game-time decision tonight. The Avs have been an Over machine to start the season, with 10 of their 13 games going over the total. Winnipeg is 8-4-1 to the Over. Colorado has given up four or more goals eight times this season, including all seven of their losses.
NHL Predictions: Colorado Avalanche ML (+120) – 1 unit
Colorado Avalanche/Winnipeg Jets Over 6.5 (-115) – 1 unit
Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes (-265; 6.5)
7:00 p.m. ET
While much of the talk, and deservedly so, is around the Winnipeg Jets and their 12-1 start, the Carolina Hurricanes have the longest active win streak. They’ve won seven in a row. The Canes scored two goals in the final 31 seconds of the third period to snap a 4-4 tie and make winners out of people like me who had Carolina on the Puck Line. Martin Necas extended his point streak to seven games (six goals and 16 assists) with his fourth consecutive multi-point game. Jack Roslovic continues to cash his shots on goal prop of Over 1.5 and the alternate line of Over 2.5. Roslovic has had three or more shots on goal in four straight games and five of his last six. Carolina has won seven of the last 10 meetings, and the Under is 1-8-1 in the last 10. I think I will stay away from the game total and go with the Canes team total Over 3.5 goals and Carolina on the Puck Line. Eight of the Canes’ nine wins have seen them score four goals or more, and seven of their nine wins covered the Puck Line. The Penguins are 1-6 as a road underdog this season and 1-9 overall as a dog. On the flip side, the Penguins are 4-0 as the betting favorite this season.
The Pens have given up four goals or more in all nine losses and have lost by two goals or more in six of those nine defeats.
NHL Predictions: Jack Roslovic Over 2.5 SOG (+155) – 1 unit
Martin Necas Over ½ assist (-105) – 1 unit
Carolina Hurricanes TT over 3.5 (-155) – 1 unit
Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 goals – 1 unit
Montreal Canadiens at New Jersey Devils (-325; 6.5)
7:00 p.m. ET
The Devils return home after taking two of three games (both shutouts) on their trip through western Canada. Tonight’s opposition, the Montreal Canadiens, have lost four straight and eight of their last 10. Only the Nashville Predators and Philadelphia Flyers have fewer points. The Habs have given up four or more goals in eight of their nine losses, with seven of those losses by two goals or more. The Canadiens’ struggles fit perfectly with one of our favorite systems plays this season. Home favorites (-200+) off a win are 13-1 on the season, have covered the Puck Line in eight straight and scored four goals or more in 12 of the 14 games. New Jersey has scored four or more goals in all eight of their wins this season. The Devils team total Over 3.5 goals at (-175) is too steep a price for my liking
NHL Predictions: New Jersey Devils -1.5 goals (-125) – 1 unit
Jack Hughes Over ½ assist (-135) – 1 unit
Buffalo Sabres at NY Rangers (-198; 6)
7:00 p.m. ET
Numerous trends make the Rangers a strong play tonight. The Blue Shirts have won seven of 10 and 12 of the last 16 versus Buffalo. Five of the last seven meetings have needed overtime or a shootout to decide a winner. With 12 games on tonight’s card, I am going to stay away from playing the Rangers on the Puck Line or their team total Over 3.5 goals.
New York’s Mika Zibanejad has scored four goals in five games versus Sabres goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Alexis Lafreniere, who is tied for second in team scoring and was held off the scoresheet in the Rangers’ win over the Islanders on Sunday, has not gone back-to-back games without a point.
Buffalo’s JJ Peterka, who scored twice in the Sabres 5-1 win over Ottawa on Tuesday, has four goals in six games against the Rangers and three goals in five games versus the Rangers goalie, Igor Shesterkin.
NHL Predictions: Alexis Lafreniere Over ½ point (-135) – 1 unit
Mika Zibanejad anytime goal (+195) – ¼ unit
JJ Peterka anytime goal (+185) – ¼ unitÂ
Calgary Flames at Boston Bruins (-192; 5.5)
7:00 p.m. ET
Favorites -175 to -199 are 20-11 (-2.3 units), 16-15 on the Puck Line (6.22 units)
For the third time in eight games, the Bruins fell victim to being blanked by their opponent. The Maple Leafs defeated Boston for the first time in nine regular season games on Tuesday by a 4-0 score. The loss snapped a two-game win streak for Boston, who had shut out both the Flyers and Kraken over the weekend.
With Boston being held scoreless in their previous game, we are all over the first period Over 1.5 goals. Teams coming off being shutout in their previous game have seen the Over cash in 18 of the next 25 games. One other system match that I continue to ride is betting favorites in the range of (-175 to -199). Favorites in this spot are 20-11 on the money line (-2.3 units) but a profitable 16-15 on the Puck Line (+6.22 units).
The Flames look for back-to-back wins for the first time since winning four straight to start the season. Matt Coronato scored the tying goal with under three minutes to play in regulation and then scored the game-winner seven seconds into OT in Calgary’s 3-2-win Tuesday at Montreal.
The Bruins Pavel Zacha has six goals in 10 career games versus the Flames.
NHL Predictions: Calgary/Boston 1st period Over 1.5 goals (-125) – 2 units
Boston Bruins -1.5 goals (+140) – ½ unit
Pavel Zacha anytime goal (+360) – ¼ unit
Nashville Predators at Florida Panthers (-205; 6)
7:00 p.m. ET
The Florida Panthers are back on home ice for the first time in 17 days. The Panthers have won five in a row, including sweeping the Dallas Stars in a pair of games in Finland. The Panthers have covered the Puck Line in all five of the wins and have scored four goals or more in eight of their nine wins this season. Florida opened as a (-180) home favorite and bettors are jumping on the Panthers. We are now seeing the line being steamed to (-205). The Panthers are taking 92% of the bets and the money.
Florida matches our system play of a favorite home favorite -200 off a win. These favorites are 13-1 on the ML, have covered the Puck Line in eight straight and have scored four goals or more in 12 of the 14 games as well.
Sam Reinhart leads the Panthers in scoring with 10 goals and 21 points and is riding a five-game point streak (five goals and four assists) and has 10 goals in 16 career games versus the Predators. Carter Verhaeghe leads Florida with 52 shots on goal. He has had four or more shots on goal in six of the last seven games.
Nashville is coming off a hard-fought 3-2 loss on Wednesday at Washington. The Predators appeared to have tied the game late in the third period, but the goal was called back for goaltender interference. Nashville has now lost back-to-back games and four of their last five. With Juuse Saros starting last night in Washington, look for backup Scott Wedgewood to start tonight in Florida. Wedgewood is 1-1 with a 3.30 GAA and .891 save percentage in his career against the Panthers.
NHL Predictions: Florida Panthers in Regulation (-120) – 1.5 units
Florida Panthers -1.5 goals (+130) – ½ unit
Sam Reinhart anytime goal (+115) – ½ unit
Carter Verhaeghe Over 3.5 SOG (+105) – ½ unit
Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars (-345; 6)
8:00 p.m. ET
The Stars are back on home ice after losing both of their games to the Florida Panthers in Finland and will look to avoid their first three-game losing streak of the young season. The Blackhawks could be just what Dallas needs to get back to their winning ways. Dallas has won eight of the last 10 meetings with Chicago, including a 4-2 win back on October 26. The Stars have covered the Puck Line and gone over their team total of 3.5 goals in seven of the eight wins over the Blackhawks. The Stars’ Matt Duchene is riding a six-game point streak (six goals, six assists) and has 20 goals and 27 assists in 56 career games versus Chicago, including a pair of goals in their lone meeting this season.
The Blackhawks are coming off a 4-1 loss last night against the Detroit Red Wings. Chicago is 2-1 this season on the back end of back-to-backs, with the only loss coming against these Dallas Stars. Last season, Chicago was 2-10 on the back end of back-to-backs.
NHL Predictions: Dallas Stars -1.5 goals (-125) – 1 unit
Dallas Stars TT over 3.5 (-160) – 1 unit
Matt Duchesne over ½ assist (+135) – ½ unit
Utah HC (-118; 6) at St. Louis Blues
8:00 p.m. ET
If you are fans of these two teams, I am sorry, but I am not going to do a deep dive into tonight’s game. The Utah HC was not only victim number 12 of the Winnipeg Jets, but they were shut out, 3-0. That means Utah falls into one of our favorite trends of betting the 1st period Over 1.5 goals in their next game.
NHL Prediction: Utah HC/St. Louis 1st period Over 1.5 goals (-120) – 2 units
