NHL Predictions – Thursday, October 10:
If there was a Circa Survivor contest for the NHL season, Wednesday would have eliminated a large percentage of the entrants as the top three betting favorites all lost. Two of the three favorites, Toronto and Edmonton, were shut out. Yours truly took it on the chin, going 6-9-1 (-2.97 units), but still sits on the profitable side after the first two days of the NHL season. Nights like Wednesday are going to happen, and that’s why you just need to move on to the next day. Here are my plays for Thursday.
Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils (-155, 6.5)
7:00 p.m. ET
There will be a buzz in the building when the Devils host the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight and not just because it’s New Jersey’s home opener. Devils head coach Sheldon Keefe will face the team he coached for the past five seasons before being fired following Toronto’s first-round loss to the Boston Bruins in last year’s playoffs. “We know this is an emotional game for him, obviously, and we all want to help him to get that win,” said the Devils Jesper Bratt.
New Jersey has come out of the gates with a pair of wins, taking two from the Buffalo Sabres in their Global Series games in Prague, giving up just one goal in each of the two games. New Jersey is my pick not only to win the Metropolitan Division, but I have a 22/1 futures ticket on Jersey to win the Stanley Cup. Defense and goaltending were issues for the Devils last season, but GM Tom Fitzgerald addressed those issues in the summer by acquiring goalie Jacob Markstrom and bolstering their blueline with the free-agent signings of Brent Pesce and Brendan Dillon. Pesce and Luke Hughes remain out of the lineup but are close to recovering from off-season injuries.
The Maple Leafs enter tonight’s game fresh off being shutout 1-0 by the Montreal Canadiens. It was the first time in 252 games Toronto was blanked. Anthony Stolarz was brilliant in the Toronto net, getting the start as Joseph Woll was placed on Injured Reserve with a lower-body injury. With Toronto in a back-to-back situation, they did not have a morning skate, so we won’t know who their starting goalie is until around 5 p.m. ET when head coach Craig Berube meets with the media. If Stolarz does not start, it will be Dennis Hildeby, who was just recalled from the Maple Leafs’ top minor league team.
The Devils opened as a -130 betting favorite and have been steamed up to -155, while the Over 6.5 is getting hammered, taking in 71% of bets and 96% of the money. If trends are your friends, the Over has cashed in the last four meetings, seven of the last 10, and 14 of the last 20 when these two teams get together.
NHL Predictions: New Jersey Devils ML (-155) – 1 unit
New Jersey/Toronto Over 6.5 (-115) – 1 unit
Los Angeles Kings at Buffalo Sabres (-110; 6)
7:00 p.m. ET
The Sabres opened the season in Prague with a pair of losses to the New Jersey Devils, scoring just one goal in each of the two games. Buffalo plays their home opener, hosting the Los Angeles Kings. The Kings could be just what the Sabres need to get their first victory of the season. LA has lost eight of 10 and 17 of 20 at Buffalo, including being shutout 7-0 and 6-0 in their most recent trips to the Queen City.
LA opened as a small -120 road favorite, but we are seeing this line move toward the hometown Sabres, with both teams sitting at -110. Kings captain Anze Kopitar has recorded at least one point in six consecutive opening games.
NHL Predictions: Anze Kopitar Over ½ point (-146) – 1 unit
Buffalo Sabres ML (-110) – 1 unit
Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins (-275, 6)
7:00 p.m. ET
Five days ago, the Bruins and goalie Jeremy Swayman agreed to a new eight-year contract. Swayman did not participate in training camp or play in any of the Bruins’ preseason games, so tonight will be his first time facing live action outside of a few practices. Boston was dominated on Tuesday by the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, falling 6-4 in the debut of new Bruins goalie Joonas Korpisalo.
The Canadiens are coming off a 1-0 blanking of the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday night thanks to a 48-save shutout performance by goalie Samuel Montembeault. With the Canadiens in a back-to-back situation, it is unclear whether coach Martin St. Louis will come back with Montembeault or go with Cayden Primeau.
The Bruins have won seven straight and nine of 10 on home ice versus the Canadiens and get Montreal on the back end of a back-to-back. Last season, the Canadiens were 1-12 on the back end of back-to-backs.
NHL Prediction: Bruins in Regulation (-175)
Florida Panthers (-135, 6.5) at Ottawa Senators
7:00 p.m. ET
It’s the battle of the Tkachuk brothers tonight in Ottawa as Brady’s Senators take on Matthew and the Florida Panthers. Florida has won five straight, nine of 10, and 15 of the last 20 meetings between the two teams.
Ottawa ranked 28th in defense last season and 29th on the penalty kill. Their goalies combined .884 save percentage was tied for last in the NHL. The Senators hope they have solved their goaltending issues when they acquired Linus Ullmark from the Boston Bruins in the summer.
This will be the Panthers’ second game of the season after knocking off the Boston Bruins on Tuesday night, 6-4. The Panthers’ scoring depth was once again on display as five different players scored goals, and 12 different players had at least one point.
Bettors are all over Florida and the Under. Checking out the VSIN Betting Splits page, the Panthers money line is taking in 87% of the bets and 74% of the handle, while the Under 6.5 is taking in 48% of the bets and 77% of the handle.
NHL Predictions: Florida ML (-135)
Florida/Ottawa Under 6.5 (-115)
Dallas Stars (-122; 6.5) at Nashville Predators
8:00 p.m. ET
No team made a bigger splash in the offseason than the Nashville Predators with the signings of Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchesseault. Bridgestone Arena will be Country Rocking tonight. When these two teams last met back on Feb 15 in Nashville, the Stars embarrassed the Predators, 9-2, resulting in GM Barry Trotz canceling the team’s outing to the Sphere in Vegas. Players used it as motivation and followed it up with an 18-game point streak going 16-0-2.
The Stars finished first overall in the Western Conference last season and just one point behind the New York Rangers for the best record in the league. Dallas comes into this season with the shortest shot on the board to win the Central Division (+220) and boasts one of the deepest rosters in the NHL. The Stars return seven players from last season who scored 20 or more goals.
Nashville goalie Juuse Saros was injured in the Predators’ final pre-season game, and it is reflected in the line movement as the Dallas Stars have gone from underdog -105 to the betting favorite at -120.
The Over has cashed in the last three meetings.
NHL Predictions: Wyatt Johnston Over 2.5 SOG (-140) – 1 unit
Jonathan Marchesseault Over 2.5 SOG (-135) – 1 unit
Wednesday, October 9: 6-9-1 (-2.97 units)
Overall 12-11-1 (+1.06 units)
