NHL Predictions – Thursday, October 17:
It was goals, goals and more goals on Wednesday in the NHL, as all four games went over the total; and not just for the game but each individual period went over the 1.5 goal total.
All four Colorado Avalanche games have gone over the betting total and if you played their opponents on the puck line (-1.5 goals) you would be a perfect 4-0 as well. If you missed yesterday’s column, I gave out the Avs/Bruins total over 6.5 as well as a David Pastrnak anytime goal. Pasta scored for the 13th time in 17 career games against Colorado.
One game after surrendering eight goals to the Ottawa Senators, the LA Kings gave up six to the Toronto Maple Leafs. With Drew Doughty out until at least late December and the Kings making the decision to play a more offensive minded system, they are getting exposed in their defensive zone. I had the Maple Leafs on the money line (2 units) as my biggest play of the night because of the issues the Kings are having. It was that same line of thinking for me jumping on Auston Matthews, anytime goal (a winner) but Matthews fell one shot short of cashing on the 4.5 SOG.
The other two games on the night featured comeback wins and both were decided in overtime. Sidney Crosby scored his first of the season and career goal, 593 as the Penguins won 6-5. I was in Anaheim last night as the Ducks rallied from down 4-3, forced overtime and Uncle Leo, Leo Carlsson, scored the game winner 54 seconds into the extra session as the Ducks improved to 2-1 on the season. On to tonight.
New Jersey Devils (-142, 6.5) at Ottawa Senators
7 p.m. ET
The New Jersey Devils are coming off a 4-2 loss at Carolina on Tuesday and face an Ottawa team tonight that erupted for eight goals in their Monday win over the LA Kings. The Devils have given up just 13 goals in six games while the Ottawa Senators have given up 12 goals in just three games after giving up seven in their win over the LA Kings.
I look at this game as a very good bounce back opportunity for Jersey. I gave out the Carolina moneyline in Tuesday’s game versus the Devils. New Jersey was in a tough spot playing on back-to-back days and three games in four nights.
The Devils opened as a (-125) road favorite, and we are seeing the line steamed up to (-142) as the Devils are receiving 76% of the bets and 83% of the handle. New Jersey is 29-12 as a road betting favorite the past two seasons and is 1-0 this season, winning 5-3 at Washington. On the other side of the coin, Ottawa is a combined 12-22 as the home betting underdog the past two seasons. They did come away victorious as home underdog knocking off the Florida Panthers, 3-1. The Senators are still without their number one goalie, Linus Ullmark. Anton Forsberg gets the start tonight coming off Monday’s game where he gave up three goals on nine shots.
New Jersey has won five of the last six meetings versus the Senators.
Play: New Jersey Devils ML (-142) – 1 unit
NY Rangers (-155, 6.5) at Detroit Red Wings
7 p.m. ET
These two teams are meeting for the second time in three days, the Rangers winning 4-1 on Monday. The Blueshirts have dominated this matchup winning four straight, five of six and seven of nine and they have scored four or more in six of the seven wins. As I referenced on Monday, when the Rangers win, they score at least four goals. They have scored four and six goals in their two wins this season (scored 5 in a loss to Utah) and over the previous two seasons combined, they have scored four or more goals, 72 of their 102 wins (71%).
Play: Rangers TT over 3.5 (-105) – 1unit
Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning (-155, 6)
7 p.m. ET
The Lightning opened the season with a pair of 4-1 victories over the Carolina Hurricanes and Vancouver Canucks. Tonight, they host a Vegas team coming off their first loss of the season (3-1), 4-2 at the hands of the Washington Capitals. The Golden Knights have been able to take advantage of a favorable schedule to open their season. In their wins over Anaheim and St. Louis, they got two teams on the back end of a back-to-back, and in the case of St. Louis, it was three games in four nights. Scoring eight goals on opening night against rival Colorado appeared impressive at the time but now not so much as the Avalanche are still in search of their first win, four games into the season and have given up 5 goals or more in each loss.
Tampa has won the last two meetings against the Golden Knights, scoring five times in each of the two games. Like the New York Rangers, if you believe the Lightning will win the game, then wagering on their team total is the way to go. Tampa has scored four goals in both of their wins this season and 76 times in their 91 wins combined the previous two seasons.
There are two player props that I am focusing on for tonight. Mark Stone has registered 26 points in 22 games versus the Lightning and Nikita Kucherov has 19 points in 10 games versus Vegas.
Plays: Tampa TT over 3.5 (+115) – 1 unit
Parlay – Mark Stone Over ½ point/Nikita Kucherov Over ½ point – 1 unit pays 0.8 units
Dallas Stars (-155, 6) at Washington Capitals
8 p.m. ET
No big write-up is needed for this one. I am simply targeting Alexander Ovechkin’s shots on goal prop. Ovy has put up 123 shots on goal in 26 career games versus the Dallas Stars. That is an average of 4.73 shots on goal per game. In his last five games versus the Dallas Stars, he has recorded 4, 3, 5, 7, 5 shots on goal.
Play: Ovechkin over 3.5 SOG (+145) – 1 unit
Edmonton Oilers (-130, 6.5) at Nashville Predators
8 p.m. ET
Nobody had the Oilers and Predators for one combined win after seven games to start the season on their bingo cards. Connor McDavid and Steven Stamkos are both in search of their first goal of the season. The Oilers blueline is trying to sort itself out. Edmonton has lost three of their top six defensemen from last season, largely due to cap constraints.
Edmonton finally showed some life on Tuesday night in knocking off the Philadelphia Flyers in overtime, 4-3. Two scraps midway through the third period seemed to spark the Oilers who would eventually tie the game with under five minutes to play to force the extra session.
This game has the potential to be a wake-up call for the star players on both teams. Connor McDavid has 11 goals and 40 career points versus the Predators. Leon Draisaitl has 25 goals and 42 points.
On the Nashville side, Steven Stamkos has 16 goals and 19 points versus the Oilers while Jonathan Marchesseault has 20 points in 23 games versus Edmonton.
Plays: Steven Stamkos anytime goal (+175) – 1 unit
Jonathan Marchessault over ½ point (-135) – 1 unit
Parlay: McDavid Over ½ point, Draisaitl Over ½ point, Forsberg Over ½ point – 1 unit pays 1.51 units
