NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Tuesday, April 29:
Here are Monday’s NHL predictions.
Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs (-160, 5.5)
Game Five (Maple Leafs lead series 3-1)
7 p.m. ET
After losing Game 4 on Saturday night, the Maple Leafs have lost 11 of their last 12 closeout games and Leafs fans, despite being up three games to one, will never feel comfortable until they finish off the Senators. After a Game 1 blowout by the Leafs, each of the last three games has gone to overtime with Toronto winning two of three. Once again, I will be on one of the better trends in this year’s playoffs and target the Leafs to score the first goal of the game. Teams after a loss in this year’s playoffs have scored the first goal in 17 of the 24 games. For daily readers of the column, you know my appreciation for Toronto’s Matthew Knies, who leads the team with three goals. Before the series, I gave out Knies to score at least three goals and had been on him to score a goal every game. I will be back on Knies to score a goal again tonight. I also have a couple of blocked shots props on the card for tonight. The Leafs’ Jake McCabe leads the team with 11 blocked shots and has had at least three blocks in three of the first four games. Simon Benoit has had at least two blocked shots in all four games.
On the Ottawa side, Brady Tkachuk leads the Sens with 15 shots on goal, including four or more in the first three games of the series. In the six games during the regular season when Tkachuk was held to one shot on goal, he followed it up with four shots on goal or more five times.
Game Four Predictions:
Maple Leafs to score first (-140) – .50 unit
Jake McCabe Over 1.5 blocks (-120) – .35 units
Jake McCabe Over 2.5 blocks (+160) – .20 units
Simon Benoit Over 1.5 blocks (-135) – .35 units
Brady Tkachuk Over 3.5 SOG (-130) – .50 units
Drake Batherson/Tim Stutzle/Dylan Cozens Over 1.5 SOG parlay (+280) – .20 units
New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes (-275, 5.5)
Game Five (Hurricanes lead series 3-1)
7:30 p.m. ET
This is the second of two elimination games on the schedule tonight. Carolina goalie Frederik Andersen was injured in a collision in the last game, so Pyotr Kochetkov gets the start tonight with Spencer Martin serving as the backup. Despite the Panthers having a commanding 3-1 lead in the series, the Devils have matched Carolina when the teams are at full strength. Each team has scored six goals at five-on-five. The big difference has been specialty teams, where the Devils are 0-for-12 with the man advantage and have given up a short-handed goal. Carolina has cashed in on four of its 13 chances on the power play.
I do believe the Canes close out the series tonight, but I will play New Jersey to score the first goal and follow the trend of the team coming off a loss to strike first in the next game. That trend is 17-7 in this year’s playoffs. Three of Carolina’s four wins have been by two goals or more.
A couple of other props for tonight. The Devils’ Brian Dumoulin has been a shot-blocking machine. He has nine blocked shots in the last two games. Carolina’s Jordan Martinook appeared to score on Sunday, but the goal was later credited to Brent Burns. Martinook has four goals and 13 points in nine career playoff games against New Jersey. Tonight is the first time that sportsbooks are offering his point and assist prop in addition to his anytime goal prop, which has always been available. For those who have BetMGM available, I would also grab the empty-net goal prop, where you can simply play an empty-net goal to be scored, or you can play either team to score one.
Game Five Predictions:
Devils to score the first goal (+140) – .20 units
Brian Dumoulin Over 1.5 blocks (-140) – 1 unit
Dumoulin Over 2.5 blocks (+220) – .35 units
Dumoulin Over 3.5 blocks (+600) -.20 units
Jordan Martinook anytime goal (+625) – .20 units
Jordan Martinook Over ½ assist (+340) – .20 units
Canes – 1.5 goals (+100) – 1 unit
Canes to score an empty-net goal (+210) – .25 units
Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights (-225, 5.5)
Game Five (Series tied 2-2)
9:30 p.m. ET
The Golden Knights rallied for a 4-3 overtime win on Sunday as they evened the series at 2-2. It was the first time the Wild lost in the regular season or playoffs (31-0-1) when leading after two periods. With the Wild losing Sunday, we will be on Minnesota to score first tonight. As long as the sportsbooks are offering a total of 5.5, I will be on the Over. All four games have gone Over the total, and three of the four have had a combined seven goals. I am staying off picking a winner in this game and will stick with the total.
Prop plays are where they’re for me tonight. The Wild’s Ryan Hartman has recorded an assist in four straight games, and Marcus Foligno has goals in three straight. Despite not scoring a goal in the series, Joel Eriksson Ek leads the team with 15 shots on goal (4, 6, 3, 4).
A couple of Vegas props for me tonight include Pavel Dorofeyev and Jack Eichel shots on goal and anytime goal props. Eichel had six shots on goal and 13 directed at the net in the last game.
Game Five Predictions:
Ryan Hartman assist (+285) – .20 units
Marcus Foligno anytime goal (+900) – .20 units
Joel Eriksson Ek Over 2.5 SOG (-165) – .50 units
Eriksson Ek Over 3.5 SOG (+150) – .20 units
Pavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 SOG (-180) – .50 units
Jack Eichel Over 2.5 SOG (-145) – .50 units
Eichel Over 3.5 SOG (+180) – .20 units
Nick Roy anytime goal (+550) – .20 units
Minnesota/Vegas Over 5.5 (-130) – 1 unit
