NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Tuesday, December 17:
One thing that stands out in tonight’s 10-game NHL card is that six games have a total of 5 ½ goals. December has featured 27 games with a total of 5 ½ and the Over has cashed in 15 of them. What is tricky about some of these games where we have these low totals is that the history between the teams would have you lean to the Over. In Montreal, the only total the Buffalo Sabres are focusing on is that they finish with more goals than the Canadiens. Buffalo has lost 10 straight and lost to Montreal on home ice earlier in the season but has won three straight and four of five at the Bell Centre. The Canadiens have just four wins in their last 11 games. Enjoy the night on ice. Here are tonight’s NHL predictions.
Los Angeles Kings (-140, 5.5) at Pittsburgh Penguins
7 p.m. ET
Shop around for this game. At a total of 5.5, I am on the Over and at six it would be a stay away. The Kings have given up two goals or fewer in seven of their last eight games and the Under is 6-1-1 over that eight-game span. On the flip side, five of the last six meetings between the two have had a combined six or more goals and four of the five have featured seven or more goals.
Kings captain Anze Kopitar leads the team with 26 assists and has 15 helpers in 25 games versus the Penguins. This will be former Kings player Blake Lizotte’s first game against his former team. Lizotte has seven goals in 16 games, already matching last season’s 62-game output and is well on his way to surpassing his career best of 11 goals. The Pens’ Bryan Rust has seven career goals in 12 games against the Kings.
NHL Predictions: Los Angeles Kings/Pittsburgh Penguins Over 5.5 (-120) – ½ unit
Bryan Rust anytime goal (+195) – ½ unit
Blake Lizotte anytime goal (+500) – ¼ unit
Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning (-260, 6.5)
7 p.m. ET
These two met in early November with Columbus winning a wild 7-6 game in overtime. The Blue Jackets’ Zach Werenski led Columbus with two goals and three assists and Kent Johnson had a pair of goals. Werenski leads NHL defenseman with 10 goals this season. Columbus has just one win in its last eight games. The Blue Jackets’ most recent loss was to Anaheim, 4-3 in overtime.
Tampa returns home from a successful trip, winning three of four, and has five wins in its last seven games overall. The Lightning have scored four-plus goals in eight of their last 10 meetings with the Jackets and have scored four goals or more 15 times this season. In their 10 games as the home betting favorite, they have scored at least four goals six times.
Brayden Point (15 points, five-game point streak), Nikita Kucherov (17 points, seven-game point streak) and Jake Guentzel (goals in six straight, eight total) have been on quite a roll leading the Lightning attack. Playing the Lightning on the money line doesn’t interest me, but their team total at Over 3.5 is worth a shot. The Jackets have given up four or more goals this season and 14 times in their 19 losses.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning TT Over 3.5 (-150) – 1.5 units
Nikita Kucherov Over 1.5 assists (+150) – ½ unit
Brayden Point Over ½ assist (-110) – ½ unit
Kent Johnson anytime goal (+330) – ¼ unit
Kent Johnson Over ½ assist (+170) – ¼ unit
Zach Werenski anytime goal (+370) – ¼ unit
Washington Capitals at Chicago Blackhawks (-205, 5.5)
8:30 p.m. ET
The Capitals will look to avoid back-to-back losses for just the second time this season when they visit the Blackhawks tonight. The Caps are coming off a 3-1 loss at Dallas on Monday and face a rested Chicago team that beat the Islanders 5-3 on Sunday.
From my colleague Josh Applebaum, NHL road favorites off a loss playing a home team off a win are 22-7 this season. Logan Thompson (12-1-2) gets the start in goal for Washington. I like that the Caps saved their better goalie for the perceived weaker opponent in the second half of the back-to-back. My only hesitation in playing Washington is that it is a “sandwich game.” They are coming off a game against the Dallas Stars and have the Carolina Hurricanes after tonight. All six Capitals games this season in the second half of the back-to-back have had a combined six goals or more with four of the six having at least seven goals. This is another game where you need to shop around and grab the 5.5, not the six that some books are offering.
NHL Predictions: Washington Capitals/Chicago Blackhawks Over 5.5 (-115) – 2 units
Best of the Rest:
Carolina Hurricanes/New York Islanders Over 5.5 (-120) – 1 unit
Ryan O’Reilly (Nashville Predators) anytime goal (+300) – ¼ unit
Tim Stutzle (Ottawa Senators) – Over ½ assist (+100) – 1 unit
